Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, down 47% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, as the U.S.-Iran conflict enters its third day. Over $300 million in crypto liquidations occurred duringBitcoin is trading around $68,000, down 47% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, as the U.S.-Iran conflict enters its third day. Over $300 million in crypto liquidations occurred during
Bitcoin Price in the US-Iran War: Will BTC Crash or Rally? 3 Scenarios for 2026
Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, down 47% from its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000, as the U.S.-Iran conflict enters its third day. Over $300 million in crypto liquidations occurred during the initial strike weekend. Experts are split: some see a prolonged conflict as ultimately bullish for BTC through monetary expansion, while others warn that sustained oil above $80 kills rate cut hopes and pressures risk assets further.
The joint U.S.-Israeli military operation against Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, has created the most significant geopolitical shock to financial markets since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. For Bitcoin holders and traders, the central question is no longer whether the conflict affects crypto (it clearly does), but how BTC will behave if the war drags on for weeks or months.
What Has Bitcoin Done So Far?
Bitcoin's reaction to the Iran strikes followed a pattern that is becoming familiar during geopolitical shocks. When news broke on Saturday, BTC immediately dropped to approximately $63,000, triggering over $300 million in leveraged liquidations across centralized exchanges. The sell-off was amplified by the fact that traditional markets were closed, making crypto the only large liquid asset available for panic selling. Within a single hour on Saturday, sell volume surged by roughly $1.8 billion.
By Monday, Bitcoin staged a sharp recovery, climbing above $69,000, briefly touching $70,000 alongside gold before retreating. Analysts attributed the bounce primarily to short-covering rather than fresh buying demand. By Tuesday March 3, BTC had pulled back to around $66,000-$68,800 as Israel launched fresh strikes on Tehran and Beirut, and Iranian drones hit the U.S. embassy in Riyadh.
The overall picture is one of extreme range-bound volatility. Since early February, Bitcoin has traded between roughly $62,500 and $70,000, unable to break convincingly in either direction. The Iran conflict has so far reinforced this range rather than breaking it.
The Bear Case: Why a Prolonged War Hurts Bitcoin
Oil above $80 kills rate cut hopes. This is the single most important transmission mechanism from the war to Bitcoin's price. If Brent crude sustains above $80 per barrel, the re-inflation narrative hardens. The March Federal Reserve rate cut was already a long shot (CME FedWatch showed just a 2.4% probability before the strikes), and elevated oil prices make even June cuts unlikely. Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC at Wintermute, stated directly that the oil move matters more for crypto than the geopolitics itself.
Institutional outflows accelerating. February 2026 saw approximately $3.8 billion in net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, the worst single month since spot ETFs launched in January 2024. Year-to-date outflows have reached $4.5 billion. Meanwhile, gold ETFs absorbed $16 billion in inflows over the same period. The rotation from "digital gold" to actual gold is one of the most visible macro trades of early 2026. A prolonged war that keeps oil elevated and the dollar strong would likely deepen this rotation.
Dollar strength pressures all risk assets. The DXY dollar index rose to its highest level since January 19 on March 3, as investors sought dollar safety. A strong dollar has historically been a headwind for Bitcoin. If the conflict persists and safe-haven flows continue favoring the dollar over crypto, BTC faces additional selling pressure.
Already in a bear market. Bitcoin is down 47% from its all-time high of $126,000, reached in October 2025. The current drawdown is significant, and historical bear cycles have typically seen declines of 60-70% or more. If the conflict adds to existing macro headwinds (tariff fears, sticky inflation, slowing growth), the downside could extend toward $50,000-$55,000.
The Bull Case: Why War Could Ultimately Fuel Bitcoin
Monetary expansion to fund the war. Analysts from the London Crypto Club argue that regardless of whether the war is short or long, Bitcoin wins because the U.S. central bank will ultimately pump money into the financial system to support the war effort. David Brickell and Chris Mills contend that a prolonged war creates an extreme risk-off scenario where investors pour into Bitcoin as a hedge against economic uncertainty, while a swift resolution unleashes a buying bonanza. In both scenarios, fiscal spending expands, supporting risk assets over time.
Historical precedent from the June 2025 Iran strike. QCP Capital drew direct parallels between the current situation and the U.S. strike on Iran in June 2025. During that event, Bitcoin temporarily fell below $100,000 before rallying to $123,000 within weeks. Options traders appear to be betting on a similar pattern, aggressively buying March 27 call options at the $74,000 and $75,000 strike prices.
Bitcoin as a 24/7 settlement layer. The weekend of the strikes demonstrated Bitcoin's unique value proposition: it is the only large, liquid asset that trades around the clock. While equity, bond, and commodity markets were closed, Bitcoin absorbed sell pressure and provided continuous price discovery. This functional utility becomes more valuable during prolonged crises. Strategy (Michael Saylor's firm) continued accumulating BTC through the drawdown, demonstrating that the largest institutional holders are structurally inclined to hold through volatility.
Conflict resolution as a catalyst. Trump indicated the military campaign would be limited to four to five weeks. If the conflict concludes within that timeframe, the removal of geopolitical uncertainty could serve as a powerful catalyst for recovery. Markets have historically bounced sharply once wartime uncertainty resolves, as the "war premium" deflates and capital rotates back into risk assets.
Three Scenarios for Bitcoin's Price Path
Scenario 1: Quick Resolution (2-4 weeks). If hostilities end with regime change or negotiated settlement, oil drops back to $60-$70 per barrel, rate cut expectations revive for mid-2026, and BTC could rally toward $75,000-$80,000 on relief momentum. This mirrors the June 2025 pattern. The speed of recovery would depend on whether ETF flows reverse from outflows to inflows.
Scenario 2: Prolonged Conflict (2-6 months). If the war drags on, Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, and oil pushes above $100, the macro environment deteriorates significantly. Rate cuts are delayed into 2027, consumer spending contracts, and risk assets face sustained selling pressure. Bitcoin could test $55,000-$60,000 in this scenario. However, this would also be the setup for an eventual sharp recovery once the conflict resolves, as the macro damage would force central banks into aggressive easing.
Scenario 3: Regional Escalation. If the conflict expands to involve additional nations (Russia, China, broader Gulf states), destroys significant energy infrastructure, or triggers civil war within Iran, the scenario becomes truly unprecedented. Oil could breach $120+, global recession fears would dominate, and Bitcoin would likely see a deeper correction before eventually benefiting from massive monetary stimulus. This tail risk scenario is currently considered unlikely by most analysts but cannot be dismissed.
Key Levels to Watch
On the upside, $70,000 remains the critical resistance level. Bitcoin briefly touched this zone on Monday before being rejected. A sustained break above $70,000 with volume would signal that the market is pricing in a resolution. The $74,000-$75,000 zone is where options activity is concentrated, making it a potential acceleration point if reached.
On the downside, the $60,000-$63,000 range is the critical support zone. Bitcoin's weekend low of $63,000 held, and this level coincides with the $60,000 put, which is the most popular bearish bet on Deribit. A break below $60,000 could trigger cascading liquidations given the cluster of long liquidation levels near $62,500.
What Should Traders Do?
The current environment rewards patience over conviction. The $65,000-$70,000 range has persisted for a month, and the Iran conflict has not yet broken it. Consider accumulating on dips toward $63,000-$65,000 if you believe in the eventual resolution thesis, but maintain strict risk management. Use MEXC's perpetual futures for tactical positions with isolated margin and conservative leverage. For longer-term holders, DCA strategies may be more appropriate than attempting to time the bottom during an active military conflict.
Monitor Brent crude as a leading indicator. If oil breaks above $85 and holds, expect Bitcoin to test the lower end of its range. If oil retreats below $75, Bitcoin should find support for a push toward $70,000+. The oil-BTC correlation is the dominant dynamic in the current market.
Disclaimer: This content is for educational and reference purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. Digital asset investments carry high risk. Please evaluate carefully and assume full responsibility for your own decisions.
市場機遇
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