Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

883 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
‘Golden Age’ of Prediction Markets Dawns as Activity Reaches New Highs

‘Golden Age’ of Prediction Markets Dawns as Activity Reaches New Highs

The post ‘Golden Age’ of Prediction Markets Dawns as Activity Reaches New Highs appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Polymarket and Kalshi continue to battle for supremacy with new partnerships and investment announcements. After a slow ramp-up throughout 2025, the rivalry between Kalshi and Polymarket is intensifying, pushing cumulative prediction market activity to new highs, while volumes reach their highest levels since the 2024 presidential election. September marked Polymarket’s highest volume month this year with $1.43 billion in volume, according to DeFiLlama. Meanwhile, Kalshi closed its best month yet, processing just over $3 billion in volume in September. According to Dune Analytics, the week ending September 29 marked the prediction market sector’s highest seven-day volume stretch since the 2024 presidential election, with total volume of $1.45 billion, compared to $1.98 billion during election week. Meanwhile, activity and unique transactions on prediction markets have hit new all-time highs for three consecutive weeks, led by Kalshi’s 3.4 million weekly transactions. The discrepancy between total volume and unique transactions suggests a higher proportion of low-value transactions, as opposed to election week, which featured massive bets on highly liquid markets. Cumulative Prediction Market Transactions – Dune Analytics There appears to be a significant development almost every week in the prediction market space, with today’s notable news being a $2 billion investment in Polymarket from the operator of the New York Stock Exchange, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Although both market leaders are benefiting from the betting frenzy, Kalshi has reportedly taken a firm lead in the race. However, it is worth noting that Kalshi markets are not onchain, meaning their data is sourced from centralized APIs, as opposed to Polymarket’s decentralized infrastructure. “I think the idea of “prediction market wars” is overstated. The total addressable market is so large that multiple players can succeed. This isn’t a winner-takes-all space. In crypto, there’s too much PvP energy when what we really need is cooperation. Both the…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
The Kalshi vs Polymarket KOL Wars have begun

The Kalshi vs Polymarket KOL Wars have begun

The post The Kalshi vs Polymarket KOL Wars have begun appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi are competing to recruit as many crypto influencers as possible, paying them to display affiliate badges on X in a PR battle that has been dubbed the “Kalshi vs Polymarket KOL Wars.” Both firms are paying undisclosed sums to various accounts, with followers ranging from the hundreds to the hundreds of thousands, to promote their markets to their respective audiences on X and display the affiliate badge. Crypto streamer Gainzy announced he was joining Polymarket last month, while @katexbt joined Kalshi this week. Another member of the Kalshi team noted last month, “Deploying more Kalshi badges — steady lads,” while some users have begged for the chance to represent Kalshi. The marketing push follows a recent dramatic drop in app downloads across both platforms and may well be an attempt to hook newcomers across the crypto community. Prediction market competition leads to poaching X user and crypto streamer, “Eddie,” accepted a Kalshi affiliate deal in September, but over three weeks later, he was poached by Polymarket and his account is now sporting the rival badge.  One crypto user joked Eddie might even be a “double agent.” Read more: Lord Miles wants YouTubers to help settle Polymarket scandal Another influencer to switch sides is “Utopia Sports,” who is currently brandishing a Polymarket badge after claiming their Kalshi partnership turned sour.  The account claims their badge was removed three weeks into the partnership after they wanted to renegotiate the terms of Kalshi’s “unclear” agreement. According to messages shared by Utopia Sports, Kalshi wanted the money paid to Utopia Sports back and told them, “If we let every partner cut off their contract while keeping the money, we would go bankrupt.” Didn’t even get drafted in the Kalshi vs Polymarket KOL wars, is it because I am old now? — Cobie (@cobie) October 6, 2025 For…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
ICE commits $2b to Polymarket for global data distribution

ICE commits $2b to Polymarket for global data distribution

ICE is making a strategic pivot toward alternative data, capitalizing on Polymarket’s proven accuracy in forecasting real-world events to sell a new form of intelligence to hedge funds and asset managers. According to a press release dated Oct. 7, Intercontinental…

Author: Crypto.news
Wall Street Giant Could Catapult Polymarket to $10B Valuation

Wall Street Giant Could Catapult Polymarket to $10B Valuation

The post Wall Street Giant Could Catapult Polymarket to $10B Valuation appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), is reportedly nearing a $2 billion investment in Polymarket. It points to Wall Street’s most traditional player stepping into one of crypto’s most controversial frontiers. Sponsored Sponsored NYSE Owner ICE Reportedly Nears $2 Billion Investment in Polymarket Sources familiar with the matter told WSJ that the deal could value Polymarket at up to $10 billion. If it materializes, it would cement Polymarket’s status among the fastest-growing projects in decentralized finance (DeFi). If completed, the deal could also aid Polymarket’s ambitions as it re-establishes a presence in the US following the CFTC approval. Despite regulatory troubles in the US, the platform has continued to thrive offshore, attracting a mix of retail traders and high-net-worth users seeking exposure to political, financial, and cultural event outcomes. Meanwhile, the prospective ICE-Polymarket deal comes only months after reports indicated Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund led a $200 million investment, valuing the company around $1 billion. Notably, ICE’s potential deal would multiply this figure several times over. The investment is expected to be finalized as soon as Tuesday, October 7. It marks a bold move by ICE, which boasts a market capitalization above $91 billion. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Market Cap. Source: Google Finance The firm’s entry into prediction markets signals a broader shift in traditional finance’s appetite for event-driven trading infrastructure. Notably, this space is often dismissed as a regulatory gray zone. Sponsored Sponsored It would also mirror ICE’s historical strategy of acquiring stakes in early-stage innovations that redefine market mechanics, from energy exchanges to digital asset clearinghouses. TradFi’s Deepening Push into Prediction Markets The timing of ICE’s reported investment is striking. It comes just months after rival platform Kalshi secured a $185 million Paradigm-led round, valuing the CFTC-regulated prediction market at $2…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
7 Best Prediction Markets in 2025: Bet on Sports, Politics, World Events & More

7 Best Prediction Markets in 2025: Bet on Sports, Politics, World Events & More

The post 7 Best Prediction Markets in 2025: Bet on Sports, Politics, World Events & More appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets are quickly becoming one of the most exciting ways to trade in 2025. Instead of just betting on sports or investing in stocks, these platforms let you put money behind your forecasts on politics, economics, and world events. They’re popular because they combine two things:  The chance to profit from correct calls The ability to see what the “wisdom of the crowd” expects to happen next For example, election prediction markets often beat polls in accuracy because people risk real money on the outcome. In this guide, I’ll look at the best prediction markets available right now. From U.S.-regulated platforms like Kalshi to global crypto apps like Polymarket, you’ll see the top prediction markets in 2025 and know exactly where to bet on politics, sports, and more. Let’s get started! List of the top 7 prediction markets in 2025: Kalshi – The first federally approved prediction market, covering politics, economics, weather, and more. Crypto.com Sports – A CFTC-regulated partnership with Underdog, offering real-time sports event trading. Robinhood Sports – Integrates sports event contracts directly into the Robinhood app, with zero commissions. PredictIt – Academic nonprofit platform focusing on elections and policy outcomes in the United States. Polymarket – The largest decentralized market, covering politics, crypto, sports, and cultural events. Augur – An Ethereum-based platform where users can create and trade markets on almost anything. Interactive Brokers/ForecastTrader – Offers event contracts alongside stocks, options, and futures for professional traders. The best prediction markets in 2025 Now that we’ve set the stage, let’s go through the platforms that make the cut this year.  Each has its own strengths, whether you’re looking for election prediction markets, sports contracts, or global crypto-based betting. 1. Kalshi: Best for regulated U.S. event trading Kalshi is the first federally regulated event trading exchange in the U.S., approved by…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Decentralized Real Growth through Web3 and Product Clank

Decentralized Real Growth through Web3 and Product Clank

The post Decentralized Real Growth through Web3 and Product Clank appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Lior Goldenberg Demonstrates How Tokenized Markets Empower Early-Stage Builders at SBC Web3 District Academy At this year’s SBC Summit, Lior Goldenberg, solo founder of ProductClank, delivered a compelling session at the Web3 District Academy, showing how Web3 token markets can enable real growth for solo founders and bootstrapped teams. His presentation, “The Future of Venture Building: How Internet Capital Markets Solve Funding & Distribution,” illustrated how tokenized speculation can provide community, funding, and distribution without relying on traditional venture capital. “ProductClank is the pure spirit of Web3, empowering early-stage founders with decentralized, accessible growth.” — Ahmed Refaie, Founder of DSRPTD.net Goldenberg, formerly Head of Platform at Collider Venture, launched ProductClank as a fully bootstrapped operation. The platform leverages tokenized speculation as a distribution engine, turning early supporters into active participants and generating viral engagement from day zero. “AI has made building products easier than ever, but distribution has never been harder,” Goldenberg explained. “With tokenized speculation, builders can reach audiences, raise funds, and maintain control of their vision, all at once.” Key traction for ProductClank includes: 500+ daily active users on its Farcaster miniapp 30,000+ token holders supporting the ecosystem $100K+ raised through token-driven engagement Over 100,000 miniapp sessions Grants from Coinbase and a six-figure ecosystem token grant Web3 Mechanics Driving Builder Success ProductClank integrates with Farcaster and operates on Base, giving builders the tools to: Launch fair token sales at the earliest stages Build engaged communities from day one Generate revenue through token trading fees Validate products with speculation-driven feedback By applying a prediction-market mindset to startups, the platform aligns incentives for builders, speculators, and community influencers, creating a positive-sum growth ecosystem. SBC Web3 District Academy Connection Goldenberg’s presentation aligns closely with the Web3 District Academy’s mission: connecting builders with the Web3 ecosystem. Just as the Academy empowers early-stage…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
New degen trenches? Prediction markets double volume to $4.3B as Solana memecoin trading slumps

New degen trenches? Prediction markets double volume to $4.3B as Solana memecoin trading slumps

The post New degen trenches? Prediction markets double volume to $4.3B as Solana memecoin trading slumps appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets made a significant appearance in the spotlight in September, with monthly volume more than doubling to $4.28 billion, while memecoin trading on Solana cooled. The question now circling crypto’s risk-taking corners is whether these markets are becoming the new trenches for degens hunting edge and adrenaline. Prediction markets rise Across the prediction market category, turnover jumped 126.3% in September, compared to August’s $1.89 billion. According to data from a Dune dashboard and DefiLlama, the baton of dominance passed decisively to Kalshi, which surged from $874.38 million in August to $2.74 billion in September. The 214% leap translated into roughly 64% market share for the month. Polymarket, long the bellwether, also experienced significant growth. The platform experienced a 41.4% increase in monthly trading volume, reaching $1.42 billion. Yet, ceded the top slot with about a 33% share. The difference is stark compared to the other top two prediction markets by monthly volume. Limitless exploded to $102.72 million from $4.98 million (+1,962%), while Myriad rose to $4.44 million (+61.3%). Despite the market share contrast, the four helped prediction markets post their strongest month on record. The sector’s participation can also see the growth of prediction markets in mainstream culture. A Sept. 24 episode on South Park featured prediction markets as the main topic, name-dropping Kalshi and Polymarket. Brand new trenches? The rotation matters because the other favored arena for high-beta speculation lost steam. Solana memecoin trading slumped 38% month over month to $19 billion in September, down from nearly $31 billion in August, according to Blockworks data. However, even after the pullback, the memecoin complex still dwarfs prediction markets. September memecoin volume on Solana was over four times larger, meaning prediction markets represented roughly 22% of that activity. Traders craving fast-moving, binary payoffs may increasingly find them in election odds,…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Prediction markets see government shutdown lasting nearly two weeks

Prediction markets see government shutdown lasting nearly two weeks

The post Prediction markets see government shutdown lasting nearly two weeks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. A view of the U.S. Capitol is seen at sunset on September 30, 2025, in Washington, DC. Mehmet Eser | Afp | Getty Images Traders in prediction markets are betting that the U.S. government shutdown could drag on for nearly two weeks, with odds rising that Congress will not reach a deal until at least mid-October. On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, the current forecast implies the stoppage will last 11.1 days, up sharply in recent days as negotiations on Capitol Hill have stalled. Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwards On Polymarket, traders see the highest likelihood that the government won’t reopen until Oct. 15 or later, with that outcome carrying about a 38% probability. By comparison, odds of a resolution in the Oct. 6-9 window stand at 23%, while Oct. 10-14 carries 22%. Only 14% of traders expect lawmakers to strike a deal in the coming days, between October 3–5. Zoom In IconArrows pointing outwards The full shutdown began early Wednesday morning after top Democrats and Republicans, including President Donald Trump, failed to agree on a short-term deal to keep the government funded. It sets the stage for the furlough of hundreds of thousands of federal workers and the shuttering of a slew of key programs and services. The length of a government closure matters as a longer-than-normal stoppage could weigh on an already fragile economy and put pressure on a stock market near record highs. Government shutdowns on average last about 14 days, based on data from Bank of America going back to 1990. And while the S&P 500 has averaged a 1% increase during these events, a prolonged closure this time could rattle markets. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/01/prediction-markets-see-government-shutdown-lasting-nearly-two-weeks.html

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Prediction Markets Close Gap With Solana Memecoins as Trading Volume Shifts Toward ‘Truth Capital’

Prediction Markets Close Gap With Solana Memecoins as Trading Volume Shifts Toward ‘Truth Capital’

The post Prediction Markets Close Gap With Solana Memecoins as Trading Volume Shifts Toward ‘Truth Capital’ appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Insights: Prediction markets represented 55% of weekly trading activity of Solana memecoins between Sept. 22-28. Kalshi dominated with $854.7 million in weekly volume, surpassing its November 2024 US election week peak. Solana memecoins registered $2.8 billion in trading volume, the smallest since early September 2024. Prediction markets registered $1.54 billion in trading volume between Sept. 22 and 28, narrowing the gap with Solana memecoins. The four leading prediction market platforms captured 55% of the weekly trading activity compared to memecoins on Solana, according to data shared by X user MovieTime on Sept. 29. Solana memecoins registered $2.8 billion in trading volume for the same period, the smallest volume since early September 2024, according to Blockworks data. Solana Memecoins In Focus as Prediction Markets Grow Amid the Solana memecoins hype, Kalshi dominated weekly volumes with $854.7 million, its all-time high in weekly volume, according to data from DefiLlama. The figure surpassed the previous peak of $750 million seen during the US election week of Nov. 4 and 10. Kalshi’s Weekly Trading Volume Since Nov. 4 | Source: DefiLlama Data from DefiLlama showed that Polymarket registered $355.6 million in weekly volume, the second-best week since the last week of December 2024, bested only by the previous week of Sept. 15 and 21. Together, Polymarket and Kalshi accounted for 78.6% of the prediction market’s weekly trading volume. MovieTime assessed the movement: “Truth capital markets. More capital in these markets makes it more accurate. When we get more volume, then we get bigger players. Which causes more volume. positive feedback loop. I think prediction markets are here to stay.” Starting the week of Sept. 29 to Oct. 5, prediction markets generated more volume Solana memecoins on Sept. 29, according to data shared by Kalshi’s growth team member, ultra. Solana Memecoins Activity since January…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood (HOOD) Eyes Global Expansion of Prediction Markets After U.S. Debut: Bloomberg

Robinhood (HOOD) Eyes Global Expansion of Prediction Markets After U.S. Debut: Bloomberg

The post Robinhood (HOOD) Eyes Global Expansion of Prediction Markets After U.S. Debut: Bloomberg appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Popular trading platform Robinhood (HOOD) is planning to expand its prediction markets product, which allows traders to buy and sell contracts based on future outcomes, beyond the U.S. and into global markets, the company told Bloomberg. Robinhood sees international demand growing, especially in Europe and the UK. JB Mackenzie, vice president and general manager of futures and international at the company, said users abroad have shown particular interest in this new form of trading. “We’re definitely looking to offer it globally, and my goal or focus is to make sure it’s a regulatory-compliant product everywhere we go,” Mackenzie told Bloomberg. To that end, Robinhood has begun discussions with overseas regulators, including the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority, to explore how a localized version of the product could be structured, he said. The move follows its recent partnership with blockchain-based and CFTC-regulated Kalshi, which lets users bet on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections, economic data releases or geopolitical developments. Rise of prediction market The push into prediction markets comes amid a surge of interest in event-based trading, sparked in part by the rise of crypto-native platform Polymarket. That platform has processed billions of dollars in wagers in 2024, largely tied to the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. The platform became so popular that Polymarket was recently reported to be weighing a potential deal that valued the company at $9 billion, a sharp climb from its $1 billion valuation just a few months ago. While Polymarket rose to fame, the market was somewhat constricted. Now, with Robinhood’s U.S. and potentially global offerings, it might open up the prediction market to a larger group of traders. CoinDesk has reached out to Robinhood for comments. Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/09/30/robinhood-eyes-global-expansion-of-prediction-markets-after-u-s-debut-bloomberg

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews