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Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

884 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Prediction Market Kalshi Hits $5B Valuation After Massive $300M Fundraise

Prediction Market Kalshi Hits $5B Valuation After Massive $300M Fundraise

TLDR: Kalshi raised $300M in a new round, pushing its valuation to $5B as it eyes major global expansion. The platform’s annualized trading volume is projected to reach $50B, up from $300M just a year ago. Kalshi now holds over 60% global market share, surpassing Polymarket in prediction-market dominance. The firm plans to open access [...] The post Prediction Market Kalshi Hits $5B Valuation After Massive $300M Fundraise appeared first on Blockonomi.

Author: Blockonomi

2025/10/11

Nobel Peace Prize Sparks Insider Trading Questions On Prediction Sites

Nobel Peace Prize Sparks Insider Trading Questions On Prediction Sites

The post Nobel Peace Prize Sparks Insider Trading Questions On Prediction Sites appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. A sudden surge in Nobel Peace Prize odds hints that prediction markets may be less about wisdom and more about who knows first. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images At 5 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, the Norwegian Nobel Committee announced that this year’s Peace Prize would go to Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado for her “tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.” It came as a surprise. On the two largest prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi, Machado had been running behind Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, and President Donald Trump, whose brokering of a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel this week generated calls for him to get the award. But, something odd happened Thursday night. At 6:30 p.m. ET, Machado’s odds of winning sat at 3.6 percent. By 7:00, they jumped to 39 percent, then 65 percent by 7:30, topping out at 73 percent by 8:00. Less than ten hours later, the Nobel Committee made it official. Economist Jason Furman, a Harvard professor and former chair of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, wrote on X that the sudden spike sure looked like insider trading. He’s not the only one thinking that. And there’s a certain irony to the Nobel Peace Prize having insiders willing to trade on what they know. The catch is, that isn’t necessarily against the rules. Prediction markets are mostly unregulated territory. As Molly White wrote in her Citation Needed newsletter on September 16, 2025, insider trading laws enforced by the SEC don’t apply. These aren’t securities, they’re contracts overseen, when at all, by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). That gap creates plenty…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/11

Kalshi Raises $300 Million, Targets Global Expansion Amid Surging Prediction Market Growth

Kalshi Raises $300 Million, Targets Global Expansion Amid Surging Prediction Market Growth

The post Kalshi Raises $300 Million, Targets Global Expansion Amid Surging Prediction Market Growth appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In Brief Kalshi secures $300M in Series D funding, reaching a $5 billion market valuation. The platform expands globally, launching in over 140 countries outside the U.S. Kalshi overtakes Polymarket with 66% share in global prediction market transactions. Prediction market platform Kalshi has secured $300 million in Series D funding, boosting its valuation to $5 billion. The company now plans to expand operations into more than 140 countries while maintaining its U.S.-based regulatory framework. The funding round included major investors such as Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, CapitalG, Coinbase Ventures, and General Catalyst. This capital injection follows Kalshi’s $185 million Series C raise earlier this year, when the platform was valued at $2 billion. Kalshi has grown rapidly since launching in 2021, processing over $10.5 billion in notional volume, according to Dune Analytics. In September alone, the company claimed 66% of the global prediction market share, overtaking its decentralised rival Polymarket. The company’s rise is largely attributed to its growing suite of sports-based prediction contracts and retail-friendly trading tools. While regulatory scrutiny has increased, Kalshi continues to emphasise its CFTC-regulated structure as a long-term advantage. Platform Growth Accelerates as Rival Polymarket Prepares U.S. Reentry Kalshi’s platform is now projected to reach $50 billion in annualised trading volume, reflecting exponential month-over-month user growth. Its interface supports identical features for both domestic and international users, though regional restrictions remain in place. Despite expansion, Kalshi still faces challenges in 38 jurisdictions, including Canada, the UK, and Singapore, per its user agreement. Legal pressure continues as several U.S. states pursue cases over its sports-related offerings, citing gambling laws. Meanwhile, Polymarket has announced a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, raising its valuation to $9 billion. The move positions Polymarket for a U.S. comeback after a 2022 ban from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Kalshi,…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/11

Kalshi Raises $300M, Expands Prediction Markets to 140+ Countries

Kalshi Raises $300M, Expands Prediction Markets to 140+ Countries

The post Kalshi Raises $300M, Expands Prediction Markets to 140+ Countries appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Notes The fintech platform’s trading volume surged 200X while its user base grew 20X over the past year. Kalshi now commands over 60% of global prediction market activity despite previously operating only in the US. The company navigated significant regulatory challenges with the CFTC throughout 2024 before expanding internationally. Kalshi, a fintech platform that facilitates the trading of “event contracts,” recently announced it was expanding its prediction markets to more than 140 countries after successfully raising $300 million in a Series D funding round. The firm’s CEO, Tarek Mansour, said in a post on X that the Series D was led by Sequoia and a16z, with participation from Paradigm, Coinbase Ventures, General Catalyst, CapitalG, Spark, Kevin Hart, Kevin Durant, Rich Kleiman, Mantis, and Kevin Yorn. The round led by Sequoia and a16z received participation from Paradigm, Coinbase Ventures, General Catalyst, CapitalG, Spark, Kevin Hart, Kevin Durant, Rich Kleiman, Mantis, and Kevin Yorn. Back to work. — Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) October 10, 2025 A New Era for Prediction Markets According to a press release, Kalshi was valued at $5 billion during its “massively oversubscribed” Series D. This puts its value up approximately $3 billion since its Series C in June. The firm also says its trading volume has grown 200X in the last year and its user base has ballooned by 20X. “Kalshi now accounts for over 60 percent of global prediction-market activity,” it says, despite previously operating solely in the US. Kalshi appears to have weathered a stormy regulatory environment after a tumultuous back-and-forth with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) throughout much of 2024. As Coinspeaker reported in September 2024, the CFTC chair at the time, Rostin Behnam, sought to ban event contracts on sensitive issues such as gaming, terrorism, and assassination. Behnam was particularly concerned over…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/11

Kalshi Raises $300 Million Reaching a $5 Billion Valuation as Prediction Markets Go Mainstream

Kalshi Raises $300 Million Reaching a $5 Billion Valuation as Prediction Markets Go Mainstream

The post Kalshi Raises $300 Million Reaching a $5 Billion Valuation as Prediction Markets Go Mainstream appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Kalshi, a blockchain-based prediction market company, has raised $300 million in a recent funding round, capitalizing on the increased popularity of these platforms. The round, which pushes Kalshi’s valuation to $5 billion, underscores the reach of these companies as they keep growing in volume and relevance. Prediction Market Company Kalshi Raises $300M at $5B Valuation […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/kalshi-raises-300-million-reaching-a-5-billion-valuation-as-prediction-markets-go-mainstream/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/11

Why Kalshi’s $5B valuation puts Polymarket on notice

Why Kalshi’s $5B valuation puts Polymarket on notice

The post Why Kalshi’s $5B valuation puts Polymarket on notice appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. A high-stakes capital race has redefined the prediction market. Kalshi’s $300 million raise at a $5 billion valuation positioned it as the most valuable CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange in history. The firm’s expansion into 140 countries and growing list of macro and cultural markets seemed to cement its place as the global leader. Around the same time, Polymarket, Kalshi’s on-chain rival, secured $2 billion in backing from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, and announced plans to re-enter the US market through a newly licensed exchange framework. This marks the first true duel between regulated infrastructure and crypto-native liquidity in the prediction market. Polymarket goes institutional The ICE investment transformed Polymarket overnight from a scrappy decentralized platform into a heavyweight competitor with Wall Street credentials. ICE’s commitment gives the firm an implied valuation of $8 billion and makes it the first blockchain-based prediction market to gain backing from a Tier-1 financial operator. Beyond the capital, the partnership grants Polymarket access to ICE’s global distribution and data-feed infrastructure: channels that reach thousands of institutions already plugged into equities, commodities, and derivatives markets. Polymarket’s comeback also carries a regulatory twist. After years of operating offshore, the company has quietly built a compliant US pathway by acquiring QCX LLC, a CFTC-licensed exchange. Through QCX, Polymarket obtained a Designated Contract Market license and adopted a self-certification mechanism for event markets, allowing it to list new contracts without pre-approval unless the CFTC objects. That structure effectively mirrors Kalshi’s own legal model. A recent no-action letter cleared the way for Polymarket to resume operations in the United States, starting with contracts tied to sports outcomes and election probabilities. In parallel, Polymarket has timed its re-entry to coincide with the surge in political and sports-betting interest ahead of the 2026 election cycle. Its…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/10

Kalshi Raises $300M at $5B Valuation Under CFTC Oversight

Kalshi Raises $300M at $5B Valuation Under CFTC Oversight

Kalshi, a U.S.-licensed prediction market supervised by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has secured $300 million in fresh capital, bringing its valuation to $5 billion, The New York Times reported. The news highlights the rapid ascent of prediction markets from niche financial experiments to global investment-grade platforms attracting major institutional capital. Prediction Markets Enter the Spotlight Once a curiosity on the fringes of finance, prediction markets are now attracting millions of users wagering on everything from politics and sports to entertainment and global events. Kalshi, one of the most prominent names in the sector, said it plans to open its platform to customers in more than 140 countries, expanding far beyond its U.S. base. The company’s fundraising announcement comes the same week as Polymarket, its chief rival, revealed that Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) — parent company of the New York Stock Exchange — intends to invest up to $2 billion in its platform. Explosive Growth and Investor Backing Kalshi is also on pace to record $50 billion in annualized trading volume, a sharp increase from about $300 million last year, according to data from Dune. The platform now commands more than 60% of global prediction-market activity, recently surpassing Polymarket. “We did not expect this level of growth,” said Tarek Mansour, Kalshi’s co-founder and CEO. The surge has attracted heavyweight venture capital investors, including Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Paradigm, CapitalG, and Coinbase Ventures. The new round, negotiated just two months after its previous one, more than doubled Kalshi’s valuation. Sports Bets and Retail Access Drive Expansion Kalshi’s entry into sports wagering — including complex bets known as parlays — has shaken up the traditional sports betting landscape. Shares of DraftKings and FanDuel’s parent company have both declined double digits amid concerns over competition. Additionally, Kalshi’s partnerships with Robinhood and Webull have allowed users to trade prediction contracts as seamlessly as they buy stocks, deepening mainstream adoption. Regulatory Questions Loom Despite CFTC approval, Kalshi faces pushback from U.S. state regulators who argue its sports-related contracts resemble unlicensed gambling. Lawsuits have been filed in several states where online sports betting remains illegal. Mansour remains confident, saying, “Every time there’s a new type of financial innovation, there’s always a series of questions around regulation. If there weren’t questions, what you’re doing is probably not meaningful or innovative enough.” As Kalshi’s global reach expands, its battle to balance innovation with compliance may define the future of the regulated prediction market industry

Author: CryptoNews

2025/10/10

Altcoins Poised to Rally with Polymarket’s Growth

Altcoins Poised to Rally with Polymarket’s Growth

The post Altcoins Poised to Rally with Polymarket’s Growth appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Polymarket has made headlines this week, with multiple developments surrounding the prediction platform. It is gaining legitimacy with ICE exploring a $9 billion deal and Wall Street taking notice. Against these backdrops, the network’s effect plays out across multiple chains and protocols that power its decentralized prediction markets. Sponsored Sponsored Altcoin Stacks Powering Polymarket’s Breakout Moment BeInCrypto recently reported that Polymarket could host the biggest airdrop in the industry. This, coupled with headlines about a prospective ICE investment, positions select altcoins to benefit from the platform’s growing valuation. 1. UMA: The Silent Backbone of Prediction Markets UMA is important to Polymarket, but no one is paying attention. While all eyes are on Polymarket’s explosive growth, UMA remains the quiet infrastructure layer that makes decentralized predictions possible. Polymarket uses UMA’s Optimistic Oracle (OO) to verify market outcomes transparently. This decentralized data verification mechanism allows proposers and disputers to determine the truth on-chain, without relying on any central authority. “Polymarket supports UMA as a resolution source for markets displayed on the Polymarket.com interface. Polymarket, at its core, is oracle agonistic, but the UMA integration provides another option for market creators,” the platform shared in a recent blog. Under the hood, UMA’s oracle ensures that every prediction, whether on elections, markets, or sports, can be settled securely and trustlessly. The UMA-CTF adapter deployed on Polygon connects Polymarket’s conditional token framework (CTF) to UMA’s oracle, making every market resolution verifiable. Despite this essential role, investors largely overlook UMA, focusing on Polymarket’s front-end success. If sentiment shifts toward recognizing the oracle’s importance, UMA could see significant upside as demand for on-chain data verification grows. Sponsored Sponsored UMA Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto 2. Polygon (MATIC): The Chain Powering Polymarket’s Scalability Polymarket runs entirely on Polygon’s Proof-of-Stake network, benefiting from its low-cost, high-speed infrastructure. The platform’s recent…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/10

Nevada Judge Denies Crypto.com Injunction in Prediction Market Case; Legal Experts Say Ruling Could Be Overturned on Appeal

Nevada Judge Denies Crypto.com Injunction in Prediction Market Case; Legal Experts Say Ruling Could Be Overturned on Appeal

The post Nevada Judge Denies Crypto.com Injunction in Prediction Market Case; Legal Experts Say Ruling Could Be Overturned on Appeal appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 💹 Trade with pro tools Fast execution, robust charts, clean risk controls. 👉 Open account → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 🚀 Smooth orders, clear control Advanced order types and market depth in one view. 👉 Create account → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 📈 Clarity in volatile markets Plan entries & exits, manage positions with discipline. 👉 Sign up → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup ⚡ Speed, depth, reliability Execute confidently when timing matters. 👉 Open account → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 🧭 A focused workflow for traders Alerts, watchlists, and a repeatable process. 👉 Get started → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup ✅ Data‑driven decisions Focus on process—not noise. 👉 Sign up → Crypto.com Nevada ruling denies the exchange’s request for a preliminary injunction, with Judge Andrew Gordon finding its sports prediction contracts fall outside the CEA’s definition of “swaps.” Legal experts say the decision is likely to be reversed on appeal, keeping regulatory uncertainty for U.S. prediction markets. Immediate effect: Nevada judge denied Crypto.com’s injunction, allowing state regulation challenges to proceed. Appeal outlook: Legal counsel predict the ruling will likely be overturned on appeal based on swap-definition precedent. Market context: Weekly combined prediction-market volume approached $1.5 billion; industry forecasts project long-term growth to $95.5B by 2035. Crypto.com Nevada ruling: judge denies injunction, raising state-versus-federal oversight questions for prediction markets — read the legal and market implications now. What is the Crypto.com Nevada ruling? Crypto.com Nevada ruling refers to a federal court decision in Nevada where Judge Andrew Gordon denied Crypto.com’s request for a preliminary injunction blocking state action by the Nevada Gaming Control Board. The judge concluded the exchange’s sports prediction contracts do not qualify as “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), allowing the state process to continue. How does…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/10

From Raid to Rich List – Polymarket Founder Shayne Caplan Becomes The Youngest Self-Made Billionaire

From Raid to Rich List – Polymarket Founder Shayne Caplan Becomes The Youngest Self-Made Billionaire

Shayne Coplan has been named the youngest self-made billionaire as Intercontinental Exchange’s $2B investment valued Polymarket at $9B. The FBI inquiry has been closed, and Coplan has said justice has prevailed, marking a new phase for the prediction-market founder.

Author: Coinstats

2025/10/10

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