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Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

882 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Aptos (APT) Price Prediction 2026, 2027 – 2030: Will APT Price Hit $30 by 2026?

Aptos (APT) Price Prediction 2026, 2027 – 2030: Will APT Price Hit $30 by 2026?

The post Aptos (APT) Price Prediction 2026, 2027 – 2030: Will APT Price Hit $30 by 2026? appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News Story Highlights The live price

Author: CoinPedia

2026/01/27

Myriad Surpasses $10M Trading Volume in Prediction Markets

Myriad Surpasses $10M Trading Volume in Prediction Markets

The post Myriad Surpasses $10M Trading Volume in Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. This milestone reflects the quick adoption of Myriad as well as the company’s aim to develop prediction markets as a fundamental segment within the DeFi industry. Since its introduction, Myriad has been able to support more than 5.4 million forecasts, its browser extension has been installed more than 60,000 times, and it has swiftly moved into the top tier of Web3 trading apps. Myriad, a Web3 prediction and trading protocol, made the announcement today that it has crossed $10 million in USDC trading volume since its introduction. Additionally, it has onboarded more than 511,000 users. This milestone reflects the quick adoption of Myriad as well as the company’s aim to develop prediction markets as a fundamental segment within the decentralized finance industry. The beginnings of Myriad may be traced back to two pioneering media companies in the Web3 landscape: Decrypt and Rug Radio. The mentality of the platform has been formed by this tradition, which has also contributed to the early momentum. The objective of Myriad is to make information itself a marketable asset class. Since its introduction, Myriad has been able to support more than 5.4 million forecasts, its browser extension has been installed more than 60,000 times, and it has swiftly moved into the top tier of Web3 trading apps. All of this has been accomplished while remaining faithful to its purpose. Loxley Fernandes, co-founder and CEO of Myriad stated: “Financial markets have always been about speculation, but Myriad is turning speculation into a product. We’re showing that trading ideas and forecasts is not only possible, it’s the next frontier for capital markets. Myriad is building the rails for prediction markets to evolve beyond a niche crypto product and become an entirely new segment of DeFi.” It is not going unnoticed that this burgeoning industry has the potential to see development. According to Thomas…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/09/02

Prediction market hype returns despite skepticism

Prediction market hype returns despite skepticism

The post Prediction market hype returns despite skepticism appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets are making a comeback, attracting big exchanges, brokerages, and crypto-native startups. Yet, questions remain about whether these platforms can grow into reliable, lasting sources of insight. Summary Prediction markets are back, drawing attention from exchanges, brokerages, and crypto startups. Politics, finance, and sports are all on the table as platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood, and a Coinbase-backed team expand offerings. Still, doubts linger over whether these markets can scale beyond hype, with new entrants aiming to combine decentralization and regulatory compliance. It’s quite hard to miss the noise. Prediction markets are back in the headlines, and this time the players include established exchanges, mainstream brokerages, and a fresh wave of crypto-native startups. Politics, finance, and sports are all on the menu. Polymarket and Kalshi are expanding their product sets, brokerage giant Robinhood is layering prediction contracts into its app, and a Coinbase-backed team just raised a high-profile seed round to build a regulated, on-chain alternative. Still, the same doubts that trailed earlier attempts haven’t evaporated. Can these markets scale into useful, durable sources of information, or are they mostly a venture cycle of hype, liquidity, and caution? Blockchain bets and regulations This summer, a new entrant called The Clearing Company announced a $15 million seed round led by Union Square Ventures and joined by Haun Ventures, Variant, and Coinbase Ventures as it seeks to build “the first on-chain, permissionless and regulated prediction market.” The startup, founded by a former Polymarket executive, pitches itself as a way to marry decentralization with the compliance that institutional and regulatory partners demand. At the same time, Polymarket — which has been the most visible crypto-native prediction platform — signaled a renewed push into the U.S. market after a strategic investment from 1789 Capital and the addition of Donald Trump Jr. to its…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/31

Will Bitcoin Collapse Before Year-End? Prediction Markets Say Yes

Will Bitcoin Collapse Before Year-End? Prediction Markets Say Yes

The post Will Bitcoin Collapse Before Year-End? Prediction Markets Say Yes appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Bitcoin After climbing to an all-time high above $124,000 in mid-August, Bitcoin has slipped back under $110,000 and is now trading in a narrowing range. While some long-term bulls still see $200,000 as a realistic target before 2026, short-term sentiment is turning more cautious. Prediction Markets Signal Bearish Tilt Data from Polymarket shows a majority of bettors now believe Bitcoin will slide below six figures before the year ends. The market is pricing in a 62% chance of a drop under $100,000, reflecting growing conviction after BTC dipped under $110,000 for the first time in six weeks. Analysts Weigh Institutional Support vs. Whale Selling Min Jung, an analyst at Presto Research, said the bearish outlook cannot be dismissed. According to Jung, institutional buyers and corporate treasuries have so far absorbed most of the selling pressure from long-term holders. That dynamic has kept the market from experiencing a deeper breakdown. But the analyst warned that this balance could shift quickly. “If large investors decide to unload more aggressively, the key question is whether there will be enough new inflows to absorb that supply,” Jung said. Without continued demand from big players, a break below $100,000 becomes increasingly likely. A Critical Test Ahead For now, Bitcoin remains in a tug-of-war between resilient institutional demand and the looming threat of whale sell-offs. Prediction markets suggest traders are preparing for the downside, even as long-term forecasts continue to point toward six-figure gains. Whether BTC holds the line or cracks below $100,000 may determine how investors approach the final stretch of 2025. The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/29

El Salvador’s $1B Bitcoin Holdings Bet Hits Polymarket

El Salvador’s $1B Bitcoin Holdings Bet Hits Polymarket

The post El Salvador’s $1B Bitcoin Holdings Bet Hits Polymarket appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. El Salvador President Nayib Bukele called attention to prediction markets amid increasing bets that the country’s Bitcoin holdings will hit $1 billion by year-end. Bukele took to X on Wednesday to tweet about Kalshi’s prediction market, which shows increasing betting activity on El Salvador’s Bitcoin (BTC) holdings hitting $1 billion by late 2025. “I could do the funniest thing right now,” Bukele said, as the odds of El Salvador hitting a $1 billion Bitcoin milestone before November jumped from 20% to 38% on Kalshi. Soon after Bukele’s post, rival platform Polymarket listed a similar bet, where the odds of a $1 billion Bitcoin milestone by December 2025 stood at 43%. Kalshi tracking the odds since mid-August Kalshi’s prediction market on El Salvador’s $1 billion Bitcoin holdings has been active since mid-August, with the “before December 2025” bet holding near 24% and “before November 2025” hovering around 18% until the last few days. Following the spike to as high as 38%, the “before November 2025” bet dropped to 27%, while the “before December 2025” bet hovered around 35%. Kalshi’s prediction market on “When will El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings be worth $1 billion?” Source: Kalshi While Kalshi had been tracking the odds of El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings reaching $1 billion for several days, rival platform Polymarket only introduced a similar market following Bukele’s tweet. Related: Bitcoin investment banks coming to El Salvador — Gov regulator “New Polymarket: Will El Salvador hold $1 billion of Bitcoin by…?” the platform posted on X just hours after Bukele highlighted Kalshi’s market on Thursday. Polymarket introduced a betting market “Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by…?” on Wednesday. Source: Polymarket Cointelegraph approached Kalshi and Polymarket for comments regarding the market listing policies, but had not received any responses by the time of publication. Controversy around…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/29

CFTC to Surveil Crypto, Prediction Markets Using Nasdaq Platform

CFTC to Surveil Crypto, Prediction Markets Using Nasdaq Platform

The post CFTC to Surveil Crypto, Prediction Markets Using Nasdaq Platform appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In brief The CFTC will start using Nasdaq’s Market Surveillance platform to enhance its ability to detect fraud and market manipulation in crypto and production markets. The shift comes as lawmakers mull the CLARITY Act. A White House report recently recommended that the CFTC impose requirements on reporting market data for certain crypto firms. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is stepping up efforts to surveil financial markets, tapping technology from Nasdaq to gain a more granular view of crypto transactions, according to a press release published by the regulator on Wednesday. Nasdaq’s Market Surveillance platform, which covers a dozen asset classes, including digital assets and prediction markets, represents a significant upgrade, the CFTC said, as it moves to replace its “‘90s-era legacy system” for detecting illicit behavior among market participants. Prediction markets have been buzzy, with the president’s son joining Polymarket’s advisory board on Tuesday. Still, a Nasdaq spokesperson told Decrypt that prediction markets mirror derivatives that the CFTC has regulated since the agency was established in 1974. “Prediction markets operate in the same way as most derivative markets, with similar potential for market abuse and manipulation,” the spokesperson said. “The technology can therefore be adapted to serve almost all forms of event-based markets.”  At the same time, the CFTC acknowledged that markets have changed rapidly in recent years, with digital infrastructure providing round-the-clock trading. “The growth in both traditional and new markets and products, combined with innovations in market structure, such as the launch of continuous trading hours, require increasingly sophisticated tools to prevent and detect potential market abuse,” the CFTC said. The shift also comes as U.S. lawmakers mull the CLARITY Act, a comprehensive piece of crypto legislation that would establish jurisdiction between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the CFTC.  The bill was passed in the U.S. House…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/28

Ex-Polymarket team launches onchain prediction markets with $15M round

Ex-Polymarket team launches onchain prediction markets with $15M round

The post Ex-Polymarket team launches onchain prediction markets with $15M round appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Former team members behind prediction market platform Polymarket have launched a new venture, The Clearing Company. It secured a $15 million seed round led by Union Square Ventures, according to an announcement on Wednesday. Other investors include Haun Ventures, Variant, Coinbase Ventures, Compound, Rubik, Earl Grey, Cursor Capital, Asylum and several angel backers. Co-founder Toni Gemayel emphasized that while prediction markets have existed for centuries, the internet age makes their collective intelligence more powerful. “Polls are too slow and rife with bias,” he wrote, adding that markets incentivize honesty because being wrong carries a real cost. Scaling, he said, will require making markets “fun to create, seamless to trade and supported by novel structures that unlock liquidity.” The startup aims to build onchain, permissionless prediction markets designed to meet regulatory standards while remaining accessible to retail users. Prediction markets allow participants to trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes, producing collective forecasts with financial incentives for accuracy. While platforms such as Polymarket have operated in regulatory gray areas, The Clearing Company suggests that it is positioning itself as a compliant alternative with transparent infrastructure and liquidity mechanisms. Union Square Ventures, which has previously invested in Web3 firms including Coinbase and Uniswap, is betting that a regulated approach could make decentralized forecasting tools mainstream. The company has not disclosed a launch timeline for its platform but emphasized its focus on designing products that balance simplicity with compliance. This article was generated with the assistance of AI and reviewed by editor Jeffrey Albus before publication. Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters: Source: https://blockworks.co/news/onchain-prediction-market-funding

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/28

Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate

Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate

The post Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate Skip to content Home Crypto News Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate Source: https://bitcoinworld.co.in/prediction-markets-accuracy/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/27

Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate

Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate

BitcoinWorld Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate In the dynamic world of cryptocurrency, where information spreads at lightning speed, discerning truth from speculation is crucial. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin recently dropped a fascinating insight, suggesting that prediction markets are surprisingly more accurate than even professional media. This bold claim invites us to explore how these innovative platforms might reshape our understanding of future events. Why Are Prediction Markets Astonishingly More Accurate? Vitalik Buterin’s argument is rooted in a fundamental principle: incentives. He highlights that participants in prediction markets face a direct financial consequence for incorrect forecasts. Unlike traditional media, which often prioritizes sensationalism, or even token governance votes where there’s no penalty for a wrong choice, prediction market participants put their money where their mouth is. Skin in the Game: When you bet on an outcome, you have a strong incentive to research thoroughly and make an informed decision. Financial Penalty: Incorrect predictions lead to monetary losses, encouraging a more disciplined and reality-based approach. Collective Wisdom: The aggregated decisions of many financially incentivized participants often yield a highly accurate probability. This ‘skin in the game’ mechanism is what, according to Buterin, helps investors stay firmly grounded in reality. It prevents the kind of rampant overhyping or baseless speculation often seen elsewhere. Instead, it fosters an environment where genuine probability and objective assessment take precedence. The Power of Incentives: How Prediction Markets Keep Investors Grounded Buterin articulated his views on Farcaster, emphasizing the stark contrast between prediction markets and other information sources. He noted that professional media and social media platforms often lack a direct accountability mechanism for the accuracy of their reports or forecasts. This can lead to a landscape filled with opinions that aren’t necessarily tethered to factual outcomes. Consider the difference: Media: Journalists and pundits might face reputational risk, but rarely a direct financial loss for an inaccurate prediction. Social Media: Influencers can spread misinformation with little to no consequence. Token Governance: While important, votes don’t typically penalize participants for choices that don’t pan out. In contrast, every trade within a prediction market is a statement of belief backed by capital. If that belief proves wrong, the capital is lost. This powerful feedback loop encourages rational thought and discourages emotional decision-making, leading to a remarkably precise collective forecast. Trusting Prediction Markets Over General Sentiment: Vitalik’s Stance Vitalik Buterin himself stated that he personally finds the probabilities presented by prediction markets to be more trustworthy than being swayed by general sentiment or the prevailing narrative. This is a significant endorsement from a highly respected figure in the crypto space, underscoring the potential for these platforms to serve as a superior source of information. The beauty of these markets lies in their ability to distill complex information into a simple, actionable probability. When a market shows an 80% chance of an event occurring, it’s not just a guess; it’s a reflection of thousands of participants’ aggregated, financially-backed assessments. This makes them incredibly valuable tools for: Forecasting Elections: Often outperforming traditional polls. Predicting Product Success: Gauging public interest and viability. Anticipating Global Events: Providing real-time, dynamic probabilities. What Challenges Do Prediction Markets Face? While the accuracy of prediction markets is compelling, it’s also important to acknowledge their limitations and challenges. These platforms, while powerful, are not without hurdles that need careful consideration for their widespread adoption and optimal function. Key challenges include: Liquidity: Smaller markets might not have enough participants or capital to generate truly robust probabilities. Regulatory Uncertainty: The legal landscape for these markets is still evolving in many jurisdictions, creating barriers to entry. Market Manipulation: Although less likely due to financial incentives, the potential for manipulation in illiquid markets exists. Ethical Concerns: Markets on sensitive topics (e.g., assassinations) raise significant ethical debates. Despite these challenges, the core mechanism of incentivized accuracy remains a powerful force, suggesting a bright future for these tools as they mature and gain broader acceptance. Addressing these issues will be key to unlocking their full potential. Vitalik Buterin’s assertion that prediction markets offer superior accuracy to professional media or social media is a powerful statement. By aligning financial incentives with truthful forecasting, these platforms create a unique environment where collective wisdom triumphs over hype and speculation. As we navigate an increasingly complex information landscape, the disciplined, reality-grounded insights offered by prediction markets could become an indispensable tool for informed decision-making. Their potential to cut through the noise and provide clear, probability-driven forecasts is truly transformative. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) 1. What are prediction markets? Prediction markets are platforms where users can bet on the outcome of future events. Participants buy and sell shares representing specific outcomes, and the market price of these shares reflects the collective probability of that event occurring. 2. Why does Vitalik Buterin believe prediction markets are more accurate? Buterin argues that prediction markets are more accurate because participants have ‘skin in the game.’ They lose money if their predictions are incorrect, creating a strong financial incentive to research thoroughly and make accurate forecasts, unlike traditional media or social media where there’s less direct accountability. 3. How do prediction markets differ from traditional media in terms of accuracy? Traditional media often faces pressures for sensationalism or clicks, and journalists typically don’t incur direct financial penalties for inaccurate reports. Prediction markets, however, directly penalize incorrect forecasts through monetary loss, leading to more grounded and reality-checked probabilities. 4. What role do incentives play in prediction markets? Incentives are central to the accuracy of prediction markets. The financial reward for correct predictions and the penalty for incorrect ones drive participants to be more rational, research-oriented, and less susceptible to emotional biases or hype, thus contributing to more reliable collective forecasts. 5. Are there any downsides or challenges to using prediction markets? Yes, prediction markets face challenges such as ensuring sufficient liquidity, navigating complex regulatory landscapes, and mitigating potential for market manipulation, especially in smaller markets. Ethical concerns can also arise depending on the event being predicted. Did Vitalik Buterin’s insights on prediction markets spark your interest? Share this article with your network and join the conversation about the future of accurate forecasting! Your friends and followers will appreciate this valuable perspective. To learn more about the latest prediction markets trends, explore our article on key developments shaping decentralized finance market insights. This post Prediction Markets: Vitalik Buterin Reveals Why They’re Astonishingly More Accurate first appeared on BitcoinWorld and is written by Editorial Team

Author: Coinstats

2025/08/27

Trump Jr. to Join Advisory Board After Investment

Trump Jr. to Join Advisory Board After Investment

The post Trump Jr. to Join Advisory Board After Investment appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Donald Trump Jr. has invested in blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket through his venture firm 1789 Capital. As part of the deal, Trump Jr. will join Polymarket’s advisory board, according to a press release. The investment comes as part of a push by 1789 Capital into crypto-related infrastructure and alternative finance tools. According to Axios, 1789 committed tens of millions of dollars to Polymarket and had been in discussions with the company for the past 18 months. Polymarket, which allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events such as elections, court rulings and geopolitical conflicts, has seen sharp growth in user activity. During the last U.S. election cycle alone, the platform has processed more than $8 billion in bets. That volume has put it ahead of major online sports betting operators like FanDuel, DraftKings and Betfair in terms of traffic. The company recently closed in on a $200 million funding round led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund, pushing its valuation to $1 billion. While Polymarket currently blocks U.S.-based users from participating in its betting markets due to regulatory restrictions, its recent acquisition of derivatives exchange QCEX could change that. QCEX holds a license from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which opens the door for Polymarket to offer legally compliant prediction markets to American users in the future. Prediction markets — where users stake funds on the outcomes of events — have drawn renewed attention for their accuracy and speed compared to traditional polling or punditry. In the run-up to elections or court rulings, these markets often serve as real-time gauges of public sentiment and risk assessment. The investment aligns with 1789 Capital’s stated mission to back technologies that reinforce “American dynamism” — a term increasingly used by conservative venture capital circles to describe a return to domestic…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/08/27

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