Bitcoin Capitulation Hits Record as US Sells, Asia Buys

Bitcoin trading split by region this week as US hours drove the steepest losses while Asia logged most of the gains. At the same time, Glassnode charts showed cycle timing staying close to past patterns as capitulation surged to a new high.

Asia Drives Bitcoin Buying as US Leads Selling, Data Shows

Bitcoin trading patterns split sharply by region this week, with US sessions turning into the largest source of selling while Asian hours absorbed most of the buying, according to cumulative return data shared by analyst Ted Pillows.

Bitcoin Cumulative Return by Session. Source: Velo Data, Ted Pillows

The chart, which tracks Bitcoin’s cumulative return by trading session, shows US hours sliding steadily into negative territory from Dec. 18 to Dec. 25. During the same period, Asia Pacific sessions climbed consistently, building positive returns while Europe hovered closer to flat. As a result, net price support increasingly came from Asian markets as US pressure weighed on the downside.

Meanwhile, the divergence became clearer after midweek volatility. US sessions saw repeated drawdowns that pushed cumulative returns deeper below zero, suggesting sustained distribution rather than brief profit taking. In contrast, Asia continued to post gains even as price action softened elsewhere, indicating stronger dip buying during those hours.

Overall, the session based breakdown highlights how regional flows are shaping short term Bitcoin price action. While US traders reduced exposure, Asian demand helped offset selling and stabilize the broader market. The data underscores that Bitcoin’s recent moves depend less on a single market and more on shifting regional participation as liquidity rotates across global trading hours.

Bitcoin Cycle Timing Matches Prior Market Phases

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s current market cycle continues to follow historical timing patterns seen in previous bull and consolidation phases, according to cycle performance data shared by analyst CryptoGerla. The chart compares Bitcoin’s price performance since cycle lows across multiple market cycles, including 2011–2015, 2015–2018, 2018–2022, and the current cycle.

Bitcoin Price Performance Since Cycle Low. Source: Glassnode, CryptoGerla

The data shows that Bitcoin’s post-low price trajectory in the current cycle closely aligns with earlier cycles at similar time intervals. After the initial expansion phase, price action typically shifts into a cooling period marked by lower highs and slowing momentum. The highlighted section on the chart shows that previous cycles experienced comparable drawdowns and consolidation phases before the cycle fully matured.

Overall, the cycle comparison suggests that Bitcoin’s recent price behavior reflects structural repetition rather than an anomaly. While short-term volatility remains present, the broader timing model indicates that the market continues to move within a familiar historical framework rather than deviating from past cycle behavior.

Capitulation Gauge Hits New High Alongside Late Year Sell Off

A Glassnode chart shared by trader Gordon Gekko shows Bitcoin’s “capitulation metric” surging to its highest reading on record as spot price dropped sharply in late 2025. The red capitulation line jumps toward the top of the chart’s right axis, while the black price line falls from recent highs above $110,000 toward the $100,000 area.

Capitulation Metric and Current Price. Source: Glassnode, GordonGekko

The chart tracks data from early 2024 through late 2025. Earlier capitulation spikes appeared during mid 2024 and again in early 2025, and each coincided with fast price drawdowns. However, the latest spike stands out as the largest move on the series, suggesting a heavier wave of forced selling or loss realization compared with prior pullbacks in the same window.

Gordon said the reading indicates the strongest capitulation event seen so far and linked it to heightened volatility. The chart itself does not label the exact calculation, but it presents the metric as a stress gauge that rises during sharp sell offs while price weakens.