Fidelity, one of the world's largest asset managers, has released analysis suggesting that Bitcoin's well-established four-year cycle may be coming to an end. The report highlights growing investor belief that cryptocurrency markets could be entering a supercycle, a prolonged period of sustained growth that would represent a dramatic departure from historical patterns.Fidelity, one of the world's largest asset managers, has released analysis suggesting that Bitcoin's well-established four-year cycle may be coming to an end. The report highlights growing investor belief that cryptocurrency markets could be entering a supercycle, a prolonged period of sustained growth that would represent a dramatic departure from historical patterns.

Fidelity Suggests Bitcoin's Traditional Four-Year Cycle May Be Ending

2025/12/16 14:31

The asset management giant points to growing investor belief in a potential supercycle that could span nearly a decade, fundamentally altering how markets approach Bitcoin.

A Paradigm Shift in the Making?

Fidelity, one of the world's largest asset managers, has released analysis suggesting that Bitcoin's well-established four-year cycle may be coming to an end. The report highlights growing investor belief that cryptocurrency markets could be entering a supercycle, a prolonged period of sustained growth that would represent a dramatic departure from historical patterns.

For reference, Fidelity notes that the commodities supercycle of the 2000s spanned nearly a decade, offering a potential template for what Bitcoin's future trajectory might resemble.

Understanding the Four-Year Cycle

Bitcoin's four-year cycle has been one of the most reliable patterns in cryptocurrency markets. Tied to the halving schedule that reduces block rewards approximately every four years, this cycle has historically produced predictable phases of accumulation, parabolic rallies, dramatic corrections, and extended bear markets.

The April 2024 halving marked the fourth such event in Bitcoin's history. Previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 each preceded significant bull runs followed by drawdowns exceeding 70%. This pattern has shaped investor expectations and trading strategies for over a decade.

If Fidelity's analysis proves correct, the established playbook may require fundamental revision.

What Drives Supercycle Thinking?

Several structural changes support the supercycle thesis. The arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs has opened institutional floodgates, with billions flowing into regulated products that did not exist during previous cycles. This institutional infrastructure creates persistent demand that differs qualitatively from retail-driven speculation.

Corporate treasury adoption continues expanding, with companies following MicroStrategy's model of holding Bitcoin as a reserve asset. Fourteen of the top 25 US banks are building Bitcoin products, signaling mainstream financial integration that previous cycles lacked.

Regulatory clarity has improved substantially, reducing uncertainty that previously contributed to cyclical volatility. The maturation of custody, trading, and risk management infrastructure makes large-scale institutional participation feasible in ways it was not before.

The Commodities Precedent

Fidelity's reference to the 2000s commodities supercycle provides instructive context. That period saw sustained price appreciation across oil, metals, and agricultural products driven by structural demand from China's industrialization and emerging market growth.

Unlike typical boom-bust commodity cycles, the supercycle featured extended appreciation with relatively shallow corrections. Prices did not follow traditional cyclical patterns because underlying demand dynamics had fundamentally shifted.

The parallel to Bitcoin suggests that structural demand from institutions, corporations, and sovereign entities could similarly override the halving-driven cycles that characterized Bitcoin's earlier, more speculative era.

Implications for Investors

A supercycle scenario would require significant adjustment to investment strategies. The traditional approach of accumulating during bear markets and taking profits during post-halving euphoria would become less relevant. Instead, investors might treat Bitcoin more like a long-term growth asset with persistent appreciation potential.

However, supercycle scenarios carry their own risks. Extended bull markets can breed complacency and excessive leverage. The absence of cleansing bear markets might allow speculative excess to build to dangerous levels before eventually correcting.

Skeptical Considerations

Not all analysts embrace the supercycle thesis. Bitcoin remains a volatile asset with significant drawdown potential regardless of structural improvements. The extreme fear currently gripping markets, with the Fear & Greed Index at 11, demonstrates that cyclical dynamics have not disappeared entirely.

Previous cycle-ending predictions have proven premature. Each bull market generates narratives about new paradigms, only for familiar patterns to reassert themselves. Prudent investors will consider Fidelity's analysis while maintaining awareness that cycles may prove more durable than current enthusiasm suggests.

The Bigger Picture

Whether or not a supercycle materializes, Fidelity's willingness to publicly discuss the possibility signals shifting institutional perspectives. One of traditional finance's most respected names is acknowledging that Bitcoin's market structure may be evolving in fundamental ways.

This alone represents progress in Bitcoin's journey toward mainstream acceptance, regardless of which cyclical pattern ultimately prevails.

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South Korea Launches Innovative Stablecoin Initiative

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BitcoinEthereumNews2025/09/18 17:54
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Summarize Any Stock’s Earnings Call in Seconds Using FMP API

Summarize Any Stock’s Earnings Call in Seconds Using FMP API

Turn lengthy earnings call transcripts into one-page insights using the Financial Modeling Prep APIPhoto by Bich Tran Earnings calls are packed with insights. They tell you how a company performed, what management expects in the future, and what analysts are worried about. The challenge is that these transcripts often stretch across dozens of pages, making it tough to separate the key takeaways from the noise. With the right tools, you don’t need to spend hours reading every line. By combining the Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) API with Groq’s lightning-fast LLMs, you can transform any earnings call into a concise summary in seconds. The FMP API provides reliable access to complete transcripts, while Groq handles the heavy lifting of distilling them into clear, actionable highlights. In this article, we’ll build a Python workflow that brings these two together. You’ll see how to fetch transcripts for any stock, prepare the text, and instantly generate a one-page summary. Whether you’re tracking Apple, NVIDIA, or your favorite growth stock, the process works the same — fast, accurate, and ready whenever you are. Fetching Earnings Transcripts with FMP API The first step is to pull the raw transcript data. FMP makes this simple with dedicated endpoints for earnings calls. If you want the latest transcripts across the market, you can use the stable endpoint /stable/earning-call-transcript-latest. For a specific stock, the v3 endpoint lets you request transcripts by symbol, quarter, and year using the pattern: https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/earning_call_transcript/{symbol}?quarter={q}&year={y}&apikey=YOUR_API_KEY here’s how you can fetch NVIDIA’s transcript for a given quarter: import requestsAPI_KEY = "your_api_key"symbol = "NVDA"quarter = 2year = 2024url = f"https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/earning_call_transcript/{symbol}?quarter={quarter}&year={year}&apikey={API_KEY}"response = requests.get(url)data = response.json()# Inspect the keysprint(data.keys())# Access transcript contentif "content" in data[0]: transcript_text = data[0]["content"] print(transcript_text[:500]) # preview first 500 characters The response typically includes details like the company symbol, quarter, year, and the full transcript text. If you aren’t sure which quarter to query, the “latest transcripts” endpoint is the quickest way to always stay up to date. Cleaning and Preparing Transcript Data Raw transcripts from the API often include long paragraphs, speaker tags, and formatting artifacts. Before sending them to an LLM, it helps to organize the text into a cleaner structure. Most transcripts follow a pattern: prepared remarks from executives first, followed by a Q&A session with analysts. Separating these sections gives better control when prompting the model. In Python, you can parse the transcript and strip out unnecessary characters. A simple way is to split by markers such as “Operator” or “Question-and-Answer.” Once separated, you can create two blocks — Prepared Remarks and Q&A — that will later be summarized independently. This ensures the model handles each section within context and avoids missing important details. Here’s a small example of how you might start preparing the data: import re# Example: using the transcript_text we fetched earliertext = transcript_text# Remove extra spaces and line breaksclean_text = re.sub(r'\s+', ' ', text).strip()# Split sections (this is a heuristic; real-world transcripts vary slightly)if "Question-and-Answer" in clean_text: prepared, qna = clean_text.split("Question-and-Answer", 1)else: prepared, qna = clean_text, ""print("Prepared Remarks Preview:\n", prepared[:500])print("\nQ&A Preview:\n", qna[:500]) With the transcript cleaned and divided, you’re ready to feed it into Groq’s LLM. Chunking may be necessary if the text is very long. A good approach is to break it into segments of a few thousand tokens, summarize each part, and then merge the summaries in a final pass. Summarizing with Groq LLM Now that the transcript is clean and split into Prepared Remarks and Q&A, we’ll use Groq to generate a crisp one-pager. The idea is simple: summarize each section separately (for focus and accuracy), then synthesize a final brief. Prompt design (concise and factual) Use a short, repeatable template that pushes for neutral, investor-ready language: You are an equity research analyst. Summarize the following earnings call sectionfor {symbol} ({quarter} {year}). Be factual and concise.Return:1) TL;DR (3–5 bullets)2) Results vs. guidance (what improved/worsened)3) Forward outlook (specific statements)4) Risks / watch-outs5) Q&A takeaways (if present)Text:<<<{section_text}>>> Python: calling Groq and getting a clean summary Groq provides an OpenAI-compatible API. Set your GROQ_API_KEY and pick a fast, high-quality model (e.g., a Llama-3.1 70B variant). We’ll write a helper to summarize any text block, then run it for both sections and merge. import osimport textwrapimport requestsGROQ_API_KEY = os.environ.get("GROQ_API_KEY") or "your_groq_api_key"GROQ_BASE_URL = "https://api.groq.com/openai/v1" # OpenAI-compatibleMODEL = "llama-3.1-70b" # choose your preferred Groq modeldef call_groq(prompt, temperature=0.2, max_tokens=1200): url = f"{GROQ_BASE_URL}/chat/completions" headers = { "Authorization": f"Bearer {GROQ_API_KEY}", "Content-Type": "application/json", } payload = { "model": MODEL, "messages": [ {"role": "system", "content": "You are a precise, neutral equity research analyst."}, {"role": "user", "content": prompt}, ], "temperature": temperature, "max_tokens": max_tokens, } r = requests.post(url, headers=headers, json=payload, timeout=60) r.raise_for_status() return r.json()["choices"][0]["message"]["content"].strip()def build_prompt(section_text, symbol, quarter, year): template = """ You are an equity research analyst. Summarize the following earnings call section for {symbol} ({quarter} {year}). Be factual and concise. Return: 1) TL;DR (3–5 bullets) 2) Results vs. guidance (what improved/worsened) 3) Forward outlook (specific statements) 4) Risks / watch-outs 5) Q&A takeaways (if present) Text: <<< {section_text} >>> """ return textwrap.dedent(template).format( symbol=symbol, quarter=quarter, year=year, section_text=section_text )def summarize_section(section_text, symbol="NVDA", quarter="Q2", year="2024"): if not section_text or section_text.strip() == "": return "(No content found for this section.)" prompt = build_prompt(section_text, symbol, quarter, year) return call_groq(prompt)# Example usage with the cleaned splits from Section 3prepared_summary = summarize_section(prepared, symbol="NVDA", quarter="Q2", year="2024")qna_summary = summarize_section(qna, symbol="NVDA", quarter="Q2", year="2024")final_one_pager = f"""# {symbol} Earnings One-Pager — {quarter} {year}## Prepared Remarks — Key Points{prepared_summary}## Q&A Highlights{qna_summary}""".strip()print(final_one_pager[:1200]) # preview Tips that keep quality high: Keep temperature low (≈0.2) for factual tone. If a section is extremely long, chunk at ~5–8k tokens, summarize each chunk with the same prompt, then ask the model to merge chunk summaries into one section summary before producing the final one-pager. If you also fetched headline numbers (EPS/revenue, guidance) earlier, prepend them to the prompt as brief context to help the model anchor on the right outcomes. Building the End-to-End Pipeline At this point, we have all the building blocks: the FMP API to fetch transcripts, a cleaning step to structure the data, and Groq LLM to generate concise summaries. The final step is to connect everything into a single workflow that can take any ticker and return a one-page earnings call summary. The flow looks like this: Input a stock ticker (for example, NVDA). Use FMP to fetch the latest transcript. Clean and split the text into Prepared Remarks and Q&A. Send each section to Groq for summarization. Merge the outputs into a neatly formatted earnings one-pager. Here’s how it comes together in Python: def summarize_earnings_call(symbol, quarter, year, api_key, groq_key): # Step 1: Fetch transcript from FMP url = f"https://financialmodelingprep.com/api/v3/earning_call_transcript/{symbol}?quarter={quarter}&year={year}&apikey={api_key}" resp = requests.get(url) resp.raise_for_status() data = resp.json() if not data or "content" not in data[0]: return f"No transcript found for {symbol} {quarter} {year}" text = data[0]["content"] # Step 2: Clean and split clean_text = re.sub(r'\s+', ' ', text).strip() if "Question-and-Answer" in clean_text: prepared, qna = clean_text.split("Question-and-Answer", 1) else: prepared, qna = clean_text, "" # Step 3: Summarize with Groq prepared_summary = summarize_section(prepared, symbol, quarter, year) qna_summary = summarize_section(qna, symbol, quarter, year) # Step 4: Merge into final one-pager return f"""# {symbol} Earnings One-Pager — {quarter} {year}## Prepared Remarks{prepared_summary}## Q&A Highlights{qna_summary}""".strip()# Example runprint(summarize_earnings_call("NVDA", 2, 2024, API_KEY, GROQ_API_KEY)) With this setup, generating a summary becomes as simple as calling one function with a ticker and date. You can run it inside a notebook, integrate it into a research workflow, or even schedule it to trigger after each new earnings release. Free Stock Market API and Financial Statements API... Conclusion Earnings calls no longer need to feel overwhelming. With the Financial Modeling Prep API, you can instantly access any company’s transcript, and with Groq LLM, you can turn that raw text into a sharp, actionable summary in seconds. This pipeline saves hours of reading and ensures you never miss the key results, guidance, or risks hidden in lengthy remarks. Whether you track tech giants like NVIDIA or smaller growth stocks, the process is the same — fast, reliable, and powered by the flexibility of FMP’s data. Summarize Any Stock’s Earnings Call in Seconds Using FMP API was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story
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Medium2025/09/18 14:40