Bitcoin Faces Market Stress as Unrealized Losses Near $100B

In Brief

• On-chain losses reach ~$100B, with 60% of ETF flows now below cost basis.
• Hashrate decline and BTC stocks trading below NAV signal miner and equity stress.
• CME gap at $89.7K–$90.3K acts as a short-term price magnet amid fragile momentum.

Bitcoin is under acute market pressure, with unrealized losses now estimated at approximately $100 billion. This level of loss resembles the deep lows last seen during the 2022 bear market phase.

Checkonchain reports that a significant share of investors are currently holding BTC below their entry price. This includes around 60% of spot ETF inflows now sitting underwater, which reflects elevated downside sensitivity.

The average ETF entry cost and True Market Mean both hover near $82,000, well above the current BTC price. This gap could lead to rising redemption risk if price action remains weak or sentiment deteriorates further.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s network fundamentals are also weakening as the hashrate begins to decline. A rolling over in hashrate often signals mounting pressure on miners, especially during prolonged drawdowns.

Adding to the caution, Bitcoin treasury stocks are trading below net asset value (NAV), showing reduced investor appetite in equity-linked crypto exposure. This discount indicates diminishing confidence from traditional market participants despite long-term structural tailwinds.

CME Gap Adds Technical Risk While Sentiment Remains Fragile

Futures market data adds another layer of complexity as a clear CME gap has formed between approximately $89,700 and $90,300. The gap was created following a sharp liquidation-driven drop in price.

Bitcoin is currently trading near $89,700, which positions the unfilled gap just overhead. Historically, such gaps act as price magnets when market volatility subsides.

A reclaim of the $90,000 level could trigger a short-term move toward $90,300 to fill the inefficiency. This would align with previous patterns of mean reversion following high-momentum sell-offs.

However, a failure to regain $90,000 would keep downside risks firmly in play across both spot and derivatives markets. Technical traders are closely watching this range as a key decision point for Bitcoin’s next move.