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The months of waiting have ended, and SpaceX is set to begin trading on Nasdaq today after investors pumped $75 billion into the largest IPO in history. What happens next could ripple across financial markets, including crypto.
One theory making the rounds is that recent outflows of over $5 billion from bitcoin BTC$63,409.86 ETFs, which dragged the price of the largest cryptocurrency below $60,000, were partly driven by investors pulling funds to participate in the IPO. If so, some of that capital could find its way back into crypto in the coming days, providing a lift to valuations.
The IPO cuts both ways. On one hand, a blockbuster debut signals broad market confidence, potentially drawing fresh capital and sustaining the risk-on mood that tends to lift bitcoin and the wider crypto market alongside equities.
On the other hand, there's a note of caution. Pseudonymous analyst Doctor Profit, who correctly called bitcoin's selloff since October, argues that record IPOs are often a hallmark of excess optimism and market tops rather than new beginnings.
"The closest comparison is Saudi Aramco at $1.70T, which went public just 10 weeks before the COVID crash in 2020. And Aramco is far from the only mega IPO that appeared near a major market top," Doctor Profit posted on X. "Always remember that the largest IPOs in history tend to arrive when optimism and euphoria is extreme, and investors are willing to pay almost any price."
Looking at the previous five largest IPOs — Saudi Aramco, Alibaba, SoftBank, NTT Mobile Communication Network and Visa — all bar NTT happened near major or interim tops in the S&P 500 Index.
If the pattern repeats, stocks could face renewed selling pressure soon, and the negative sentiment could spill over into other risk assets, including bitcoin, which then may drop below $60,000, a level it briefly breached last week before bouncing to $63,000. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
- SpaceX's crypto-traded IPO was sharply falling. It now points upward to a $2.4 trillion valuation (CoinDesk): SpaceX’s crypto contracts traded between $176 and $183, and open interest stood near $216 million. All this points to a $2.4 trillion valuation for the newly listed company, 35% above the $1.77 trillion set by the IPO price.
- BlackRock files to list its bitcoin income ETF, with expected debut next week (CoinDesk): BlackRock's fund will earn income by selling call options on the iShares Bitcoin Trust, the largest spot bitcoin ETF. Each month, it will write options on a portion of its holdings and collect the premium as income.
- Metaplanet buys Siiibo Securities to accelerate bitcoin financial ecosystem plans (CoinDesk): Metaplanet bought Siiibo Securities for about $13.1 million. The purchase marks Metaplanet's first step in its long-term strategy to build a bitcoin-focused financial ecosystem.
- U.S. stock futures pop on signs of a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal: Live updates (CNBC): Stock index futures rose on Friday after Iran said a proposed peace deal would see the Strait of Hormuz reopen. S&P 500 futures added roughly 0.6% along with Nasdaq-100 futures. Global stocks also gained.
Today’s signal
S&P 500's performance since 1998. (TradingView)
The chart shows that four of the top five IPOs, including Saudi Aramco's in 2019, occurred close to or at notable price tops in the S&P 500 Index.
This trend validates the narrative that record IPOs, like SpaceX's, are indicative of excess optimism and euphoria and pave the way for price declines.
