- BTC's weekly RSI remains below 41.5, a level that has historically separated bullish and bearish regimes.
- A recovery above that level would confirm that a bottom has been made, according to Material Indicators.
Crypto traders, having seen bitcoin BTC$62,895.02, the largest cryptocurrency, bounce overnight to $64,000 from recent lows under $60,000, may be wondering whether the bottom has been hit and a fresh bull run has started.
There is a simple signal to get that confirmation. Right now, it is saying the rebound has not started.
That signal comes from the widely followed momentum gauge called the relative strength index, or RSI. The measure can range from 0 to 100. Readings above 70 indicate that an asset is running hot and potentially overbought, while readings below 30 suggest the opposite. Between those extremes, specific levels often emerge as dividing lines between bullish and bearish environments.
For the bitcoin price, the line is at 41.5, according to crypto data analytics platform Material Indicators. Above that level, BTC has historically had a stronger argument for being in a bullish macro trend. Below it, bearish pressure tends to dominate.
"Right now, Bitcoin is below it, and still trending down," Keith Alan, an analyst at Material Indicators, said in an email. "That does not mean price has to collapse, but it does mean the burden of proof is still on the bulls."
It's like spotting green shoots in a recessionary economy. Early signs of recovery, say rising job postings and consumer spending, can be exciting. Still, economists don't declare a new expansion until the quarterly GDP data confirms it. The green shoots, after all, may fade.
Trading works similarly. A price bounce can be the beginning of a new bull run or simply a relief rally within a broader downtrend. So, traders wait for specific indicators to confirm which one it is before making that call.
BTC's weekly chart in candlestick format and RSI. (TradingView)
The chart makes the case. The 14-week RSI's 41.5 level has consistently separated bitcoin's bull and bear phases over multiple cycles.
The indicator held above 41.5 throughout the bull run from January 2024 to November 2025, and the same pattern played out during the 2020-21 and 2015-17 bull markets.
Conversely, the most intense phases of bear markets have consistently seen the indicator trade below that level, as occurred in late 2018, May-December 2022 and again in recent months.
The data confirms Alan's take. A recovery of the weekly RSI back above 41.5 would be the first meaningful signal that BTC's broader trend is turning bullish and that the bottom is in.
According to Alan, the next key RSI level to watch is 31.89, the previous weekly reading. If the indicator falls below that level, it would mean further price losses ahead.
At the time of writing, the weekly RSI was at 34.00 and bitcoin traded little changed over 24 hours near $63,000.
