How the SpaceX IPO Could Affect AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and Wireless Carriers

TLDR

• SpaceX is set to debut on Wall Street Friday at $135 per share, in what could be the largest IPO in history at around $75 billion
• Space stocks like AST SpaceMobile and Rocket Lab could face valuation pressure as SpaceX trades at roughly 35x sales versus their 60-80x multiples
• Telecom stocks like Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile have already dipped on disruption fears, but could bounce if the IPO underperforms
• SpaceX’s biggest growth bet is AI — it sees a $22.7 trillion market opportunity, though its xAI unit shows no clear path to profitability
• Nasdaq changed its rules to allow faster index entry, but S&P Dow Jones is holding firm on its 12-month waiting period

SpaceX is preparing to list on Wall Street this Friday, offering 555.6 million shares at $135 each. The deal could raise around $75 billion, making it the largest IPO in history.

CEO Elon Musk told JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon on X that the company needs capital to deploy 100,000 next-generation Starlink satellites and build AI data centers in space. Musk, already the world’s richest man, could become its first trillionaire.

What This Means for Space Stocks

SpaceX’s IPO valuation sits at roughly 35 times expected sales. That’s a problem for some of its listed peers.

AST SpaceMobile trades at around 80 times forward sales. Rocket Lab trades at nearly 60 times. Both stocks have surged over the past year — up roughly 150% and 290% respectively.

With SpaceX now providing a direct valuation benchmark, those multiples could come under pressure. Analysts describe this as “derating” — where valuation ratios compress to match a more established comparable.

Intuitive Machines and Redwire face similar risks. All four companies carry short interest in the 20% range, about three to four times the average stock in the Russell 1000. That raises the risk of a short squeeze if SpaceX’s debut sends space stocks higher instead.

Telecom and AI Stocks Also in the Frame

SpaceX is not just a rocket company. Its Starlink service competes directly with traditional wireless carriers.

Shares of Verizon, AT&T and T-Mobile have already moved lower ahead of the IPO on disruption concerns. If the IPO disappoints, those stocks could recover.

SpaceX’s prospectus lists AI as its biggest potential market, valuing the opportunity at $22.7 trillion. Its xAI unit, which merged with SpaceX earlier this year, competes with Anthropic, OpenAI and Microsoft. The prospectus shows no clear path to profitability for that business.

A weak debut could also ripple through AI-linked stocks more broadly. SpaceX is the first money-losing AI company to go public. OpenAI and Anthropic are expected to follow later this year.

Index Inclusion and Musk’s Control

Nasdaq changed its rules to allow companies to join the Nasdaq 100 after just 15 trading days, which could benefit SpaceX quickly. The S&P Dow Jones is keeping its standard 12-month requirement in place.

Musk will hold a majority of Class B shares, giving him full control over company decisions. SpaceX’s own filing warns that losing Musk would be difficult to recover from.

Pre-IPO, SpaceX shares were trading at around $163 on crypto platform Hyperliquid — implying roughly a 20% gain from the IPO price.

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