Delta Air Lines (DAL) Stock Surges Ahead of Q1 Earnings Report This Wednesday

Key Takeaways

• Delta shares have gained approximately 5% over the last 30 days, significantly outperforming American Airlines, United, and Southwest, which fell more than 10%
• First-quarter earnings announcement scheduled for Wednesday, April 8, prior to market open
• Jet fuel prices have doubled to $195 per barrel over 30 days following Iran conflict escalation — Delta maintains a no-hedging policy on fuel
• Wall Street forecasts Q1 revenue at $14.8B (up 5.38% year-over-year) with earnings per share of $0.62 versus $0.46 prior year
• From a technical perspective, DAL maintains support above its 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages, eyeing the $76 year-to-date peak

As Delta Air Lines prepares to unveil its first-quarter financial results on April 8, the carrier finds itself in a notably stronger position than its industry competitors. Over the last month, shares have appreciated roughly 5%, standing in stark contrast to American Airlines, Southwest, and United, which have all experienced declines exceeding 10% during the identical timeframe.

Delta Air Lines, Inc., DAL

This divergence stems from several strategic factors. The airline has aggressively pursued the premium travel segment, capturing higher-income passengers who demonstrate resilience in their spending patterns during economic uncertainty. During the fourth quarter, premium cabin revenue climbed 9% to approximately $5.7 billion, even as economy class revenue declined 7% to $5.62 billion.

The carrier also demonstrated impressive recovery following a challenging period in late February, when shares dipped beneath the 50-day moving average as bond yields and crude oil prices escalated in response to the Iran conflict outbreak. A robust turnaround on March 9 enabled DAL to regain ground above that critical threshold.

The focal point now shifts to Wednesday’s earnings disclosure.

Wall Street projects first-quarter revenue reaching $14.8 billion, representing a 5.38% year-over-year expansion, alongside earnings per share of $0.62 compared to $0.46 during the corresponding quarter last year. However, these projections face potential headwinds.

Rising Fuel Expenses Present Major Uncertainty

Unlike many competitors, Delta has maintained a policy against hedging jet fuel expenses. This strategic choice is now creating significant challenges. According to IATA data, jet fuel prices have skyrocketed to $195 per barrel — representing a 103% increase from the previous month — fueled by supply chain disruptions linked to the Iran conflict.

This represents a substantial margin compression threat. Management will likely provide updated guidance regarding how the conflict impacts its 2025 projections during the earnings call. While the airline successfully managed previous oil price spikes — including the surge following Russia’s 2022 Ukraine invasion — the current escalation presents unique challenges.

Management previously issued Q1 adjusted earnings guidance ranging from $0.50 to $0.90 per share, with a midpoint of $0.70 trailing slightly behind the analyst consensus of $0.72 established when guidance was released.

For fiscal 2025, Delta projects full-year earnings between $6.50 and $7.50 per share. Total revenue is anticipated to hit $67.2 billion in 2025, advancing to $70 billion in 2026.

Technical Analysis Suggests Upside Potential

Examining the technical picture, DAL has demonstrated solid support levels. Following a March trough at $55.20, shares have rebounded to approximately $66.70. The stock maintains positioning above both the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, plus an upward-sloping trendline established since last June.

The price action has created a harami candlestick formation — characterized by a smaller bullish candle following a larger bearish one — which technical analysts frequently interpret as a possible trend reversal indicator.

The year-to-date peak of $76 represents the next logical technical objective, positioned roughly 14% above present trading levels.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, Delta generated $16 billion in revenue alongside $1.5 billion in operating profit. Full-year 2024 results included $63.4 billion in revenue, $5.8 billion in operating profit, and $14.1 billion in operating cash flow.

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