PANews reported on October 25th that according to Jinshi, Huatai Securities' research report stated that the US CPI slowed more-than-expected in September, primarily due to an unexpected slowdown in the rent component. While tariffs still contributed to some price increases, the magnitude was relatively modest. The housing component's impact contributed to the unexpected decline in inflation in September. Given the ongoing government shutdown and the overall cooling of the job market, an October interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is highly likely, with a December rate cut also being the baseline scenario. The impact of this round of tariffs on inflation is likely to be relatively small overall but long-lasting, placing relatively limited constraints on Fed rate cuts. However, factors such as the ongoing government shutdown and the expiration of the DOGE buyout program are expected to impact the fragile US job market in the short term. The Fed needs to mitigate the risk of a further weakening of the job market. Therefore, Huatai Securities maintains its forecast for a Fed rate cut in both October and December.PANews reported on October 25th that according to Jinshi, Huatai Securities' research report stated that the US CPI slowed more-than-expected in September, primarily due to an unexpected slowdown in the rent component. While tariffs still contributed to some price increases, the magnitude was relatively modest. The housing component's impact contributed to the unexpected decline in inflation in September. Given the ongoing government shutdown and the overall cooling of the job market, an October interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is highly likely, with a December rate cut also being the baseline scenario. The impact of this round of tariffs on inflation is likely to be relatively small overall but long-lasting, placing relatively limited constraints on Fed rate cuts. However, factors such as the ongoing government shutdown and the expiration of the DOGE buyout program are expected to impact the fragile US job market in the short term. The Fed needs to mitigate the risk of a further weakening of the job market. Therefore, Huatai Securities maintains its forecast for a Fed rate cut in both October and December.
Huatai Securities: The decline in US CPI in September paves the way for the Fed to cut interest rates
2025/10/25 17:11
PANews reported on October 25th that according to Jinshi, Huatai Securities' research report stated that the US CPI slowed more-than-expected in September, primarily due to an unexpected slowdown in the rent component. While tariffs still contributed to some price increases, the magnitude was relatively modest. The housing component's impact contributed to the unexpected decline in inflation in September. Given the ongoing government shutdown and the overall cooling of the job market, an October interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is highly likely, with a December rate cut also being the baseline scenario. The impact of this round of tariffs on inflation is likely to be relatively small overall but long-lasting, placing relatively limited constraints on Fed rate cuts. However, factors such as the ongoing government shutdown and the expiration of the DOGE buyout program are expected to impact the fragile US job market in the short term. The Fed needs to mitigate the risk of a further weakening of the job market. Therefore, Huatai Securities maintains its forecast for a Fed rate cut in both October and December.
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