How The War In Ukraine Has Sparked A Demographic Crisis In Russia

On Monday, a leaked document from the Russian Ministry of Defense revealed the Russian Federation’s casualties in Ukraine in 2025. The report provided a breakdown of Russian deaths and injuries by each Russian military group operating in Ukraine.

The information, which was published by a nongovernmental organization in Ukraine that helps members of the Russian Armed Forces safely surrender to Ukraine, revealed that the Russians have sustained over 280,000 casualties since January. An independent estimate, calculated by Meduza and the BBC Russian Service, found that the Russians have had roughly 219,000 casualties in calendar year 2025. These reports suggest that the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been devastating.

For nearly four years, the Russian Federation has launched its full-scale military incursion into Ukraine. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed, and one-fourth of Ukraine’s population is displaced. Several Ukrainian cities and towns have been destroyed, and economists estimate that it will cost over $1 trillion to rebuild Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russia has lost tens of billions of dollars in military equipment and hardware. Two-thirds of Russia’s pre-invasion tank force has been destroyed, and the Ukrainians have sunk or damaged nearly half of Russia’s naval fleet on the Black Sea. It is also estimated that the Russian Federation has lost hundreds of billions of dollars due to international sanctions.

Aside from these material and financial losses, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly impacted Russia’s servicemembers. According to The Guardian, the Russian Federation has sustained over one million casualties since the start of the full-scale military incursion into Ukraine in February 2022. (The British Ministry of Defence, the U.S. Department of Defense, and the Center for Strategic and International Studies have independently verified these casualty figures as well.) The same assessment by The Guardian found that “Russian fatalities are estimated to be five times higher than the combined death toll from all Soviet and Russian wars between the end of the second world war.”

What is the impact of these casualties on the Russian military? How else has the Russian invasion of Ukraine impacted demographics within the Russian Federation?

Russian Military Casualties And The Russian Market Since The 2022 Invasion Of Ukraine

Throughout the Russian invasion of Ukraine, hundreds of thousands of Russian servicemembers have been called upon to fight in the war. These military personnel have ranged from young adults and inexperienced soldiers to veterans and senior officers.

Aside from these servicemembers, the Russian government has also conscripted Russian men to fight in the war in Ukraine. As a result, these Russian citizens have been forced to participate in the ongoing military incursion. Over one million Russian soldiers have been wounded or killed during the war, but the military incursion has also resulted in significant casualties to Russia’s officer corps.

According to a study conducted by Mediazona, in collaboration with Meduza and the BBC Russian Service, nearly 6,000 Russian senior officers have been killed during the war. Twelve of these individuals were generals in the Russian army. The study also found that the Russian men most impacted by the war were those aged between 30 and 39. The information on Russian casualties published by Mediazona is consistent with that of other international news sources and think tanks.

“Russian men in their thirties are by far the largest casualty demographic on the Russian side,” Andrew D’Anieri, an Associate Director at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center, told me in an interview. “These are men who would soon be entering their prime salary-earning years. Instead, the volunteer soldiers, known as kontrakniki, have chosen the huge initial payouts offered by the government for fighting and dying in Ukraine.”

What have these payouts entailed? Since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree offering newly contracted Russian soldiers a sign-on bonus of $4,970. Some recruits received additional bonuses in regions that have struggled to reach various recruitment quotas, such as Irkutsk, Omsk, Krasnoyarsk, and Kemerovo. Bonuses have been used by the Russian government as a key effort when attempting to recruit new volunteers to fight in Ukraine.

Additionally, the Russian government has encouraged Russian men to join the Russian military by offering them a monthly salary of $2,500. Joining the Russian Armed Forces has also guaranteed these young men a form of employment. Finally, families of killed Russian soldiers would receive a one-time payment of $158,000.

While there are many risks associated with joining the Russian military during the war, the incentives provided by the Russian government have increased recruitment, indicating that the strategy is working. This is because Russia is currently experiencing high inflation and economic uncertainty. In addition, the average monthly salary in Russia is $1,273, meaning that Russian soldiers fighting in the war in Ukraine are earning nearly twice the national average.

“But there is a knock-on effect,” D’Anieri told me in an interview. “The Russian economy will have fewer skilled and semi-skilled workers to produce for the economy and support families. That puts serious downward pressure on the Russian economy in the long term. These problems are unlikely to be fixed if the war continues.”

Some of these signs are also present. For example, a report published by Forbes in August found that the Russian Federation is already facing labor shortages within civilian industries. In addition, industrial factories within Russia are only operating at 81%, thus further outlining the impact of Russian casualties on the Russian workforce. Despite these warnings, the Russian military incursion into Ukraine continues.

The War In Ukraine And Russian Emigration

Aside from the casualties sustained by the Russian Federation during the war in Ukraine, other factors have impacted demographics within Russia. For example, emigration has contributed to a decline in Russia’s population.

When Putin announced his military incursion into Ukraine, some Russians who opposed the war decided to leave the country. These anti-war individuals settled in countries that have large ethnic Russian and Russian-speaking populations, such as Georgia and Kazakhstan. Others chose to relocate further, where they immigrated to countries within the European Union, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.

As the war has continued, an increasing number of Russians have opted to flee the country. This was especially the case when the Russian government announced a partial mobilization of Russian citizens in September 2022. Stanford University estimates that nearly one million Russians have now emigrated from Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. The Stanford report also found that these Russian emigres were mostly young adults who were highly educated. Additionally, it is believed that these emigres were part of Russia’s middle class or labor force. This would explain why there are currently labor shortages within the Russian Federation.

“Putin’s war of aggression against Ukraine is greatly damaging Russia’s future, with the unnecessary deaths of hundreds of thousands of soldiers at the front and the emigration of some of Russia’s best and brightest young people,” Dr. Brian Taylor, the Director of the Moynihan Institute at Syracuse University, told me in an interview. “History will judge his rule harshly.”

Russian Demographics During The War In Ukraine

Finally, aside from the casualties sustained during the ongoing invasion of Ukraine and the emigration of Russian citizens, the Russian Federation is also experiencing a population decline. This has been driven by a decrease in birth and growth rates.

According to a report by the Carnegie Endowment published in September, Russia is experiencing a declining birth rate. Russia is also witnessing a rising male mortality rate. Furthermore, the Carnegie Endowment report stated that citizens aged 65 and over account for more than 18% of the total population in Russia, a historic record in the country.

In other words, Russia’s aging population is outpacing younger generations. Should this continue, the Carnegie Endowment report states that this could overwhelm Russia’s pension and healthcare systems. Additionally, the Carnegie Endowment report stated that the “collapse of the social security system [within Russia could be] a very real prospect.”

Finally, Russian citizens are not receiving assistance from the Russian government to support their families. According to the Carnegie Endowment report, less than 1% of Russia’s gross domestic product has been allocated to supporting Russian families during the war. Meanwhile, the Russian Federation has increased its defense spending. In 2025 alone, Russia spent 7.2% of its GDP on defense.

The limited allocation of government funding to support Russian families, combined with growing economic challenges, has made it difficult for Russian citizens to raise a family. As a result, this has led to a further decline in Russia’s population.

Overall, the Russian Federation is faced with a serious population challenge. Prior to the full-scale invasion in 2022, a census published in 2021 estimated that the population of the Russian Federation was 147 million. Since then, the Russian Federation has sustained casualties during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the emigration of Russian citizens, and domestic demographic challenges. Given these events, the United Nations Population Fund now estimates that the current population of the Russian Federation is 144 million.

The UN projects that this trend of a population decline in Russia may also continue. According to the UN estimates, if demographic issues such as low fertility rates, low birth rates, and a population decline are not addressed, then in a worst-case scenario environment, the Russian population could drop from 144 million in 2025 to 57 million by 2100. This would mean that Russia would lose more than half of its population in only 75 years.

In other words, the Russian Federation is facing a serious demographic crisis. It remains to be seen how the Russian government will address these issues, and what mechanisms will be put in place to reverse this population decline.