Bitcoin Bounces from $69K Major Support: Bulls' Final Shot at Bear Flag Break? – BTC TA March 20, 2026

The major $69K horizontal support has held firm and the $BTC price has bounced from this level. The probable target for this next potential surge to the upside is the upper reach of the bear flag once again. With the bear market trendline also acting as resistance at the top of the flag, could this be the last attempt by the bulls to break out and avoid a rejection that leads to the next big breakdown?

Higher highs and higher lows, but that’s a bear flag!

Source: TradingView

While things are continuing to look fairly positive for the $BTC price, it must be acknowledged that the Fear and Greed Index has dipped back down into Extreme Fear at a score of 11, so market sentiment is probably feeling the large amount of uncertainty over the Middle East conflict. 

However, Bitcoin keeps on pushing out those higher highs and higher lows that already have some calling for a recovery from a bear market bottom. The thing is, the sharp plummet down to $60,000 and then a series of higher highs and higher lows within a channel, only really signal one obvious pattern, and that’s a bear flag.

Until such time as the $BTC price breaks through the top of the flag and confirms above, the far more probabilistic outcome is a breakdown through the bottom of the pattern - quite possibly to around $40,000.

Price rising to potential last big rejection

Source: TradingView

The daily chart makes it as clear as the nose on one’s face. The bear flag is still developing, and the higher highs and higher lows are perhaps continuing to give false comfort to investors. However, it looks plain as daylight that the make or break point is when the $BTC price gets to the top of the flag and also retests the top of the massive descending channel.

Of course, it might not happen exactly as predicted, but the chances of a rejection from the position of the red arrow are quite high. By the time the price gets there, momentum could be starting to falter, the indicator line in the RSI could have hit the top of the channel again, and the fact that the descending trendline is the bear trendline from the all-time high, makes it a very difficult barrier to cross and hold above.

A 69% bear market correction?

Source: TradingView

The last leg down to the bottom of the bear market beckons. Is there still a chance that the bulls could break out of the top of the bear flag and through the bear market trendline? Yes, it’s possible. The $BTC price would have to confirm above though and show signs of continued strong recovery. 

That said, we have to look at the probabilities in front of our eyes, and these are still firmly on the side of the bears. This bear market has only dropped 52% so far. A far cry from the 75% and more of previous bear markets. If the full measured move out of this bear flag does occur, this would take the price down to just below $40,000, which would be a much more respectable 69%. If one takes into account decreasing returns to the upside, then surely this would also happen to the downside?

At the bottom of the chart, it can be seen in the RSI that every time the indicator line broke through each downtrend, it heralded the start of each big upside rally. Currently, the indicator line is posturing to reject from the downtrend line. Could this be for that one last big dip?

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.