U.S. Democrats Propose BETS OFF Act To Ban War Bets On Prediction Markets

U.S. Democrats Senator Chris Murphy and Congressman Greg Casar have introduced the BETS OFF Act, which is the latest crackdown on prediction markets. The bill aims to ban certain events on these platforms, including those on war, assassination, and terrorism.

Democrats Introduce Bill To Ban War Bets On Prediction Markets

According to the draft text, the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act will ban the trading of several categories of events, including war, assassination, and terrorism. Furthermore, it will ban any event that is not financial, commercial, or economic if it is a government action, if someone knows the outcome in advance, or if someone has complete control over the outcome.

These Democrats noted that the BETS OFF Act will ban prediction markets on events such as when Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will be out as the Iranian Supreme Leader. Notably, this market had raised controversy with Kalshi voiding the bets after confirmation that Khamenei had died, which tied the market to death. Kalshi currently doesn’t offer contracts tied to death.

As CoinGape reported, Kalshi is currently facing a class action lawsuit, with traders disputing payouts from the bet. The BETS Act marks the latest crackdown on prediction markets, with state regulators already arguing that these platforms operate as unlicensed sports betting platforms.

It is worth noting that the bill is unlikely to become law anytime soon, as Republicans currently control both the Senate and the House and are unlikely to prioritize this partisan bill. Senator Murphy commented on why prediction market bills lack bipartisan support, stating that it was a really hard issue for Republicans because U.S. President Donald Trump was cashing in on these platforms.

Senator Murphy Questions the Morality Of These Events

During the press conference today, he also questioned the morality of these kinds of events on prediction markets. He said,

His comment comes just a day after The Times of Israel reported that its military correspondent got death threats regarding a report on a missile impact in central Israel. These Polymarket traders threatened the reporter to get him to change his report on what happened in order to win bets on the prediction market.

In response, the top crypto prediction market, Polymarket, condemned the harassment and threats. “This behavior violates our terms of service and has no place on our platform or anywhere else,” a spokesperson for the platform told The Times of Israel in a statement.

While Kalshi has greatly limited the scope of contracts related to the Iran war, Polymarket offers contracts directly tied to the war, including when there could be a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. According to data on the platform, there is currently a 50% chance that both countries will agree to a ceasefire by May 31.