Larry Ellison became the world’s richest person — but not on Polymarket

Despite received wisdom being that Elon Musk is the world’s wealthiest person, crypto traders are suddenly doubting his ability to hold onto his title.

This week, Polymarket traders were placing bets at 96% odds that Musk would slip from top spot. Those same binary options were trading at 15% odds as recently as Tuesday.

Meanwhile, on US-based Polymarket competitor Kalshi, similar options traded down from 91% to 64% within 36 hours.

That dramatic move in betting for the world’s top billionaire follows a world record in Musk’s personal compensation.

Specifically, on September 5, Tesla’s board of directors proposed $1 trillion in executive compensation for Musk — the largest proposed pay package in history by at least two orders of magnitude. 

Just three business days later, however, betting odds for him losing his top spot spiked 540% on Polymarket.

According to the fine print on Polymarket’s resolution metric for its binary options contract, the reference for Musk’s personal wealth is specifically Bloomberg’s Billionaires Index. On that webpage, the second wealthiest person is Oracle’s Larry Ellison.

Kalshi, in contrast, uses Forbes’ estimates.

$1 billion difference between world’s two richest men

Interestingly, Bloomberg’s estimate of Ellison’s net worth had jumped by a massive $88.5 billion as of 7:28pm New York time yesterday.

This screenshot of Bloomberg’s ranking shows Musk barely ahead of Ellison. Specifically, Bloomberg estimated Musk’s net worth at $384 billion and Ellison’s net worth at $383 billion.

A rounding error could have easily displaced Musk from the top slot.

Indeed, if someone was refreshing their browser consistently, it’s possible that the webpage displayed Ellison in the #1 spot at some point yesterday.

Moreover, there are third–party reports that Ellison did surpass Musk as the world’s richest person this week.

The resolution description on Polymarket reads, “This market will resolve to Yes if Elon Musk is any rank other than #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at any point between June 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.”

Given this language, it’s curious that the market is still accepting bets at only 64% odds as of publication time.

Ellison gains while Musk loses ground

Year to date, Bloomberg estimates Ellison has gained $191 billion while Musk has lost $48.2 billion.

Ellison’s biggest gain occurred this week due to Oracle’s blockbuster earnings announcement.

Indeed, Oracle common stock rallied 38% within the past three trading days, adding $238 billion to its market capitalization. As its largest shareholder, Ellison’s 40% equity stake in the company earned him a windfall this week that nearly catapulted him atop the world’s wealth leaderboard.

As of publication time, betting lines have retraced some of their stunning moves. Polymarket traders are now betting at 64% odds and Kalshi at 68% odds that Elon remains the world’s wealthiest person this year.

Of course, neither Polymarket nor Kalshi’s prediction markets reflect the actual odds that any event will occur outside the blockchain. These exchanges simply facilitate bets from traders who are speculating on binary options.

Although these platforms involve a data oracle for real world input, traders may pay whatever price they want — whether or not the odds rate has anything to do with the actual likelihood of the event occurring.

Read more: Trump discovered he was winning via Polymarket, says CEO

Ellison’s booming Oracle versus Musk’s dwindling Tesla

Musk derives almost all of his net worth from Tesla equity and his government contractor, SpaceX. His investments in X and xAI are linked to various equity deals with Tesla.

He also has smaller assets like Neuralink and The Boring Company.

Tesla has struggled this year, dropping from a December high of $488 per share to its current price of $368. Year to date, Tesla vehicle sales have been declining, and Musk abruptly left his post in Trump’s administration.

Meanwhile, Oracle shares have soared 85% year to date amid new deals for its cloud and AI divisions.

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