Bitcoin Grills $74,000 Again After US PCE Inflation Data

Bitcoin (BTC) aimed for five-week highs at Thursday’s Wall Street open as US inflation trends stayed on track.

Key points:

• US inflation data keeps crypto and stocks higher as BTC price action tests $74,000 again.

• Bitcoin traders diverge over the future of the move, with a “bearish retest” risking a new price collapse.

• BTC/USD finally recrosses its 50-day moving average trend line.

PCE inflation emboldens Bitcoin bulls

Data from TradingView confirmed new local BTC price highs near $74,000 following the January print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index.

Known as the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, January PCE matched market expectations, coming in at 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, per data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

While still at its highest levels since late 2023, the result appeared to soothe risk assets, with US stocks up around 0.5% at the time of writing. 

In doing so, both risk assets and crypto began to diverge from a positive correlation to oil seen over the week. WTI crude was down 2% on the day at around $95 per barrel.

BTC price forecast: $79,000 or “bearish retest?”

Commenting on Bitcoin, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe was cautiously upbeat on the outlook.

Related: Bitcoin’s ‘narrative vacuum,’ Ethereum now inevitable: Trade Secrets

“Resistance zone for me is between $76-79K for Bitcoin. I don’t expect a fast breakout in one-go, but I would assume that we’re going to see some extra momentum occur on the altcoin markets in that window,” he wrote in a post on X. 

Others stayed on edge, with trader Daan Crypto Trades warning of a “large drop” if the current trading zone collapsed.

Trader Roman, already bearish, described the ongoing shift higher on BTC/USD as a “bearish retest.”

“RSI bear divs, bear price action (volume down + price up), & complete reset of MACD,” he summarized, referring to the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) price indicators on daily time frames.

In fresh updates on his Telegram channel on the day, meanwhile, independent analyst Filbfilb focused on open interest (OI).

Market observers, he said, should watch for OI to “ditch” — an event that would precede the end of the push higher.

“No sign yet,” he acknowledged, noting that price was now interacting with its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). 

As Cointelegraph reported, this was a key overhead resistance zone of interest during previous breakout attempts.