Fed Rate Cut Prediction: Whale Bets $15K on 50bps Move

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The Federal Reserve’s next decision has the markets buzzing, but one Polymarket trader is taking things to another level. Known online as JustWakingUp, the whale has placed a $15,000 bet that the Fed will cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week. It’s a wager that could turn into a staggering $226,000 payout if correct, far larger than Wall Street’s mainstream call for a smaller move.

Markets Lean Toward a Smaller Cut

Most investors aren’t buying into the jumbo cut scenario. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s a 91% chance the Fed sticks to a more modest 25 basis point cut. Still, cracks in the U.S. economy have given the bold prediction more attention than usual. August’s jobs report came in weaker than expected, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics recently admitted the economy added 911,000 fewer jobs than first reported in the year through March 2025, the biggest downward revision ever recorded. That has added pressure on the Fed to act more aggressively.

Different Views on the Bet

Some see the whale’s move as a clever risk-reward play rather than a true signal. Analyst Andrew Larick called it an “asymmetric bet.” With more than $2 million in profits already secured, losing $15,000 is minor for the trader. But if the Fed surprises with a larger cut, the payout would be huge, almost a quarter of a million dollars.

Not everyone agrees. Coase to Coast, another market commentator, argued that betting against Wall Street pros isn’t smart. He noted that options traders and banks usually have the most accurate read on Fed policy. In his view, real opportunities come when average investors act emotionally, creating chances to take the opposite side.

While many dismiss the possibility, big names like BlackRock and Standard Chartered have openly called for a 50 basis point cut. Their stance shows that even among institutions, there is room for debate about how far the Fed might go.

Data Could Tip the Scales

The deciding factor may come down to this week’s economic data. The Producer Price Index arrives Wednesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index Thursday. If both show cooling inflation, the case for a bigger cut will gain momentum. That would not only validate the Polymarket whale’s bold gamble but could also send Bitcoin and stocks higher as easier monetary policy boosts liquidity.

For now, the whale is sitting on a small gain, but the real payoff depends on whether the Fed delivers a shock next week.

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