Coinbase (COIN) Stock Sinks as Wall Street Slashes Targets Before Earnings Thursday

TLDR

• JPMorgan slashed Coinbase price target 27% to $290 ahead of Q4 earnings Thursday, citing weak crypto volumes and USDC slowdown
• Stock has crashed over 50% since bitcoin’s October high, losing 27% year-to-date as crypto market tumbles
• Analysts project Q4 EBITDA drop to $734M from $801M with subscription revenue missing $710M-$790M guidance range
• CFO Alesia Haas unloaded $56.5M in shares February 6 through pre-arranged trading plan
• Barclays and Compass Point warn retail trading and blockchain rewards will disappoint investors

Coinbase stock is getting hammered ahead of its fourth-quarter earnings report Thursday. JPMorgan just cut its price target by over a quarter. The crypto exchange now trades at $165, down 27% in 2026.

Coinbase Global, Inc., COIN

JPMorgan analyst Ken Worthington dropped his December 2026 target to $290 from $399. He still rates the stock Overweight, implying 75% upside potential. But that’s cold comfort for shareholders watching their holdings evaporate.

The stock has lost more than half its value since bitcoin peaked above $126,000 in early October. The broader crypto selloff has crushed Coinbase’s business model.

Revenue and Earnings Face Steep Decline

Worthington expects adjusted EBITDA of $734 million for Q4. That’s down sharply from $801 million in Q3. Weak trading volumes and falling crypto prices are the main drivers.

The analyst models spot crypto trading volume at $263 billion for the quarter. USDC stablecoin revenue is projected at just $312 million as circulation declines.

Deribit provides limited relief. The derivatives exchange Coinbase bought in August should contribute around $117 million. That helps push total transaction revenue to $1.06 billion, barely above last quarter’s $1 billion.

The subscription and services business looks worse. JPMorgan expects $670 million, well below guidance of $710 million to $790 million. Lower crypto prices, weak staking yields and slow USDC growth are all taking a toll.

Barclays sits 10% below consensus on EBITDA estimates. Analyst Benjamin Budish points to softer retail trading based on Robinhood data. He estimates Coinbase volume at $261 billion.

Robinhood’s retail crypto volumes dropped 15% quarter-over-quarter. Those numbers typically track Coinbase closely, suggesting trouble ahead.

Insider Sale Raises Eyebrows

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel takes the most bearish stance. He expects subscription revenue to disappoint and confirms overall revenue remains tied to crypto prices.

Engel also flags January trading revenue as potentially the weakest retail engagement since Q3 2024. That doesn’t bode well for the current quarter either.

CFO Alesia Haas sold $56.5 million worth of shares on February 6. The sale involved 362,600 shares at prices between $152.10 and $156.72.

The transaction used a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan. Haas sold to cover taxes and fees from stock option exercises. She exercised options on 78,433 shares at $18.13 and 617,668 shares at $6.97.

She also converted 617,668 Class B shares into Class A. The timing, just days before earnings, catches attention despite the pre-arranged nature.

Key Questions for Management

Investors want answers on several fronts Thursday. Early 2026 trading activity tops the list. Management needs to explain whether January weakness persists into February.

USDC revenue sustainability remains unclear. Can stablecoin income stabilize or will it keep declining with lower circulation?

Deribit’s contribution matters too. The derivatives platform needs to prove it can offset spot market volatility. Otherwise, Coinbase remains too dependent on crypto price swings.

The earnings call happens Thursday after market close. Current analyst estimates suggest a rough quarter with limited visibility for improvement.

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