DOT Technical Analysis Feb 9

DOT’s market structure continues the downtrend with LH/LL formation; recent swing lows $1.3177 and $1.1010 stand out as critical supports. For an upward structure break, BOS above $1.3776 is required, otherwise bearish continuation dominates.

Market Structure Overview

Polkadot (DOT) is trading at $1.32 with a -1.63% drop in the last 24 hours. The market structure shows a clear downtrend; the recent lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) pattern confirms bearish momentum. On the daily timeframe, trading below EMA20 ($1.59) dominates, the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal, and $1.71 acts as a strong resistance ceiling. Although RSI at 28.98 is approaching oversold territory, the MACD’s negative histogram indicates potential for continued downside. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 11 strong levels were identified across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 2 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, and 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. This structure strengthens the overall bearish bias, and a clear BOS (Break of Structure) is expected for short-term trend change.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) structure must form. Although holding above the recent swing low at $1.3177 (score: 70/100), price failed to break the $1.3776 swing high. A potential bullish signal would be a close above $1.3776 to break the LH and form a new HL; this could bring the $2.1317 target (score:10) into play. However, even with oversold RSI, staying below EMA20 prevents HH/HL transition. Short-term recovery may remain limited to the $1.35-$1.37 range, as the overall structure remains dominated by LH/LL.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is strong with LH/LL: As long as it stays below the recent swing high $1.3776, new LLs form. If $1.3177 support breaks, the next LL at $1.1010 (score:72/100) could be tested; a break there would trigger bearish BOS and activate the $0.4395 target (score:22). MACD is bearish and Supertrend resistance at $1.71 supports the downside. Oversold RSI may give a bottom signal, but the trend won’t change without structure break; note: BTC correlation adds extra pressure.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Structure break (BOS) is the key to trend change. For bearish BOS: Close below $1.3177 swing low confirms LH/LL and opens the path to $1.1010. If this level breaks, lower LLs on the 1W timeframe come into play. For bullish BOS: Strong close above $1.3776 swing high is required; this breaks the recent LH, transitions to HL, and brings tests of EMA20 ($1.59) and Supertrend $1.71. MTF shows 3D/1W resistances (total 5R) making bullish BOS difficult. Wait for $1.3776+ for CHoCH (Change of Character); staying below preserves bearish structure. Consolidation in the $1.28-$1.35 range signals pre-volatility buildup.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing high $1.3776 (score:70/100) is the peak of the bearish structure as LH. This level rejects upside attempts; retest rejection forms new LH. Previous swing highs (1D/3D MTF resistances) complete the resistance cluster extending to $1.71. Breakout would signal trend reversal; staying below brings pullback to $1.3177.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing low $1.3177 (score:70/100) is short-term support; $1.1010 (score:72/100) is the main LL. These supports slow the downside but breakout triggers BOS. 2 strong supports on 1W timeframe provide bottom protection; however, BTC downside increases risk. Hold could form HL, but overall LH/LL dominates.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $70,482 with -1.16% drop in downtrend; main supports $68,839/$62,910, resistances $72,015/$78,962. BTC Supertrend bearish and rising dominance pressures altcoins like DOT. Correlation high in DOT/BTC pair: If BTC breaks below $68,839, DOT $1.1010 test accelerates. Conversely, BTC BOS above $72,015 supports DOT rally to $1.3776. Monitor BTC key levels: BTC stabilization required for altcoin rally. Details in DOT Spot Analysis and DOT Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL downtrend continues without BOS above $1.3776. Short-term $1.28-$1.35 range, breakout direction decisive. Oversold RSI offers recovery chance, but MTF resistances and BTC pressure favor downside. Educational note: Market structure is read via connections between swing points; BOS/CHoCH captures trend shifts. Close watch: $1.3177 support and $1.3776 resistance. Lack of news highlights technical structure. Risk management: Set stop-losses based on swing lows.