USD, EUR and Yield Expectations in Mid-Q1 2026
đ” USD snapshot: The US dollar index (DXY) is sitting in the 97.5â97.7 area, staying reactive to every shift in âwhen is the next Fed cut?â pricing and to global risk appetite.
đ US yieldsâââthe marketâs expectations gauge:
- US 10Y: about 4.23%
- US 2Y: about 3.52%
That leaves the curve positively sloped (roughly 0.7% between 10Y and 2Y). A steeper curve often signals that markets see the Fed staying cautious near-term, while longer-term expectations lean toward easier policy later.
đŠ Fed timingâââwhat traders are pricing: The base case in rates markets remains that the Fed is likely to stay on hold in March, with the next cut most commonly priced around June if upcoming data cools.
đ¶ EUR and the ECB angle: The ECBâs deposit facility rate is 2.00% (unchanged at the latest decision). With both the Fed and ECB in a âwait and reassessâ mode, EUR/USD is behaving like a relative-rates and risk-sentiment pair: it tends to firm when USD easing expectations rise, and soften when the market swings back to USD safety demand.
đ What could move everything next (mid-Q1 focus):
đ§Ÿ US inflation prints and wages
đ· US labour market updates
đïž Consumption data and confidence
Any surprise here can reprice June expectations quickly, which usually hits USD first, then Treasury yields, then EUR/USD.
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đ USD, EUR and Yield Expectations in Mid-Q1 2026 was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.
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