Cardano price stuck in bearish structure as open interest drops 79%

Cardano price is under pressure near $0.27 as falling open interest and weak technical structure continue to limit recovery attempts.

Cardano traded slightly lower on Feb. 9, changing hands at $0.2705 at the time of writing. The token has lost about 31% over the past month and continues to sit near levels last seen in mid-2023.

Earlier in February, Cardano (ADA) briefly slipped toward a multi-year low around $0.22 before buyers stepped in. Since then, price action has stayed compressed, with the past seven days confined to a $0.2441–$0.3034 range.

As the selloff continues, market activity has slowed. Cardano’s 24-hour trading volume dropped 33% to about $768 million. With traders displaying little urgency on either side, the decline suggests waning participation rather than panic selling.

Open interest drop reflects exit by large traders

The derivatives market tells a similar story. Data shared on Feb. 9 by Alpharactal co-founder Joao Wedson shows Cardano’s open interest shrinking sharply, falling from $1.6 billion to about $334 million. The move suggests leveraged positions have been closed in size, rather than rolled into new bets.

Wedson also highlighted a shift in where that open interest now sits. In 2023, Binance accounted for more than 80% of ADA’s open interest, with the rest spread thinly across other exchanges. That picture has changed. Binance’s share has dropped to 22%, while Gate.io now holds the largest slice at 31%.

According to Wedson, this change matters. He pointed to Solana (SOL) as a reference, noting that its strongest rally phase coincided with rising Binance dominance in derivatives. Once that dominance faded, price strength cooled as well.

In Cardano’s case, the fragmented setup suggests leverage is no longer concentrated enough to drive sharp upside moves.

Cardano price technical analysis

On the chart, the trend still points lower. For weeks, recovery attempts have been capped by ADA’s continued trading below the 100-day moving average. The $0.32 region has been rejected on every push, confirming its status as a crucial resistance level.

A consistent pattern of lower highs and lower lows can be seen in the daily structure. The price is tracking close to the lower Bollinger Band, keeping pressure tilted to the downside.

The lack of volatility suggests a steady distribution as opposed to a washout. Moves back toward the middle of the Bollinger Bands have been sold into, suggesting sellers stay active on minor rebounds.

The $0.27 area, once a demand zone, is now being tested again with less follow-through from buyers. As long as ADA stays below $0.30, downside risk stays in focus.

That picture is echoed by momentum indicators. During short oversold bounces, the relative strength index, which is below 40, has had difficulty gaining traction. There has been no discernible bullish divergence, and attempts at recovery have been shallow.

Price action is still favoring a slow grind lower, with the $0.24–$0.25 zone serving as the next area of interest, unless there is a clear break back above the 100-day average on high volume.