Traders Tilt Bearish on August BTC, ETH Targets as Retail Lags Institutions

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

As East Asia begins its trading day, BTC is trading at $116,263, down 1.1% on the day and 2% lower on the week, according to CoinDesk market data, while ETH sits at $4,322, off 3.8% in the last 24 hours but still up 2.6% weekly.

The CoinDesk 20 (CD20), an index tracking the largest crypto assets, is down 2.4%.

Polymarket odds suggest traders are bracing for weakness through the end of August. The most likely outcome for BTC is now a close below $111,000 with a 34% probability, while ETH’s highest-weighted scenario is a finish near $4,800 at 43%.

Enflux, a Singapore-based market maker, said the market is being pulled in two directions.

“The market remains caught between strong underlying institutional conviction, highlighted by Strategy Inc.’s additional 430 BTC purchase and structural financing shift, and a lack of immediate retail follow-through,” it wrote in a note to CoinDesk.

Enflux pointed to VanEck’s reiterated $180,000 year-end bitcoin target as evidence that institutions are positioning for continuation, even as retail-favored narratives such as XRP and DOGE have been capped by the SEC’s delays on ETF approvals.

Solana remains an exception, Enflux wrote, with “quiet strength” from its dominance in USDC transfers and PumpFun’s share of new token issuance.

Still, derivatives positioning shows caution.

QCP reported in a recent market update that perpetual funding rates turned negative over the weekend, a setup that preceded earlier pullbacks, and options skews now favor puts across maturities.

The result is a market that looks structurally supported at the top but tactically defensive into Thursday’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to address policy under the weight of higher-than-expected inflation and a White House that continues to challenge the Fed’s neutrality.

With crypto search interest at a four-year high and the GENIUS Act sailing through Washington, and now in the hands of regulators, the foundation for a broader rally is still being built.

But for now, prediction markets and price action suggest conviction is concentrated at the top, while flows remain selective.

Market Movers

BTC: Bitcoin swung between $114,993 and $117,620 on August 18, with volumes far above average as traders digested Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s clarification that strategic reserves would be filled through budget-neutral acquisitions rather than direct government purchases as well as anticipated the upcoming Jackson Hole summit where Jerome Powell is expected to outline the case for keeping rates as is.

ETH: Ethereum fell 3% to $4,330.61 on Aug. 18 amid heavy volatility and repeated resistance near record highs, even as U.S. spot ETFs drew $3.71 billion of inflows in stark contrast to ongoing retail selling.

Gold: Gold hovered near $3,333–$3,394 an ounce Monday, rising in early U.S. trading as position-squaring set in ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, where Chair Jerome Powell may hint at September rate cuts, while traders also weighed U.S.-Ukraine diplomacy and broader geopolitical uncertainties shaping haven demand.

Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks mostly slipped Tuesday ahead of White House talks between Trump, Zelenskyy and European leaders, though Japan’s Nikkei 225 edged up 0.1% and the Topix was flat.

S&P 500: U.S. stocks were little changed Monday as the summer rally showed signs of fatigue ahead of Fed minutes, major retail earnings, and Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech later this week.

Elsewhere in Crypto

• U.S. Treasury Department Starts Work on GENIUS, Gathering Views on Illicit Activity (CoinDesk)
• After Attacking Monero, Qubic Sets Its Sights on Dogecoin—Here’s Why (Decrypt)
• Michael Saylor Eases Stock-Sale Limits as Bitcoin Premium Falls (Bloomberg)