The euro-pegged stablecoin market, currently a “shallow” niche in the digital asset ecosystem, is on the verge of a massive structural expansion.
S&P Global Ratings projected that the sector could grow from its end-2025 level of approximately €650 million to a staggering €1.1 trillion ($1.3 trillion) by 2030.
This “upper-bound” scenario would see euro stablecoins capture roughly 4.2% of all eurozone overnight deposits, transforming them from speculative trading tools into a foundational pillar of European financial infrastructure.
S&P identifies the “Practical Utility” phase of blockchain as the primary engine for this 1,600x growth. Unlike the previous era, which was dominated by USD-pegged tokens for crypto trading, the new cycle is driven by the integration of stablecoins into the regulated real-world economy.
The report outlines three distinct paths for the digital euro, noting that the outcome depends heavily on the speed of bank adoption and consumer trust.
| Forecast Scenario | Projected Market Cap (EUR) | % of Eurozone Deposits | Outlook |
| Upper-Bound | €1.1 Trillion | 4.2% | High institutional and retail adoption; 24/7 global settlement standard. |
| Baseline | €570 Billion | 2.2% | Steady growth in tokenized funds and B2B payments. |
| Lower-Bound | €25 Billion | 0.1% | Niche use cases only; slow regulatory uptake in major economies. |
A major shift identified in 2026 is the entry of traditional incumbents. A consortium of 11 European banks, including heavyweights like ING, UniCredit, and CaixaBank, is currently preparing to launch a unified, MiCA-compliant euro stablecoin in the second half of 2026.
Operating through a Netherlands-based entity named Qivalis, this consortium aims to provide a “sovereign European alternative” to the USD-dominated market. By leveraging their existing network of 150 million clients, these banks could bridge the liquidity gap that has historically kept euro stablecoins at less than 1% of the total stablecoin market cap (which hit $310 billion in the U.S. by late 2025).
Currently, USD-pegged tokens like USDT and USDC dominate nearly 99% of all stablecoin supply. S&P analysts argue that this disparity is unnatural given the Eurozone’s €28 trillion RWA market. As institutional money-market funds and repo transactions migrate to on-chain settlement, the euro stablecoin is no longer an “option” but a “necessity” for European digital sovereignty.
For 2026, the key confirmation to watch will be the successful licensure of the Qivalis consortium; a successful launch would likely catalyze the “Baseline” scenario, moving the market toward the half-trillion-euro mark.
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