OSL Trading Time: Bitcoin has rebounded from its lows and may hit $125,000 in the short term

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETH, ETF, BTC

Robert Kiyosaki recently warned that reckless monetary policy and excessive money printing could trigger a market crash, and suggested that investors consider Bitcoin, gold and silver as hedging tools. This view is supported by JPMorgan Chase, which believes that Bitcoin and gold are structurally important in investment portfolios.

Market data shows that despite the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF hitting a record high of $332.6 million in one-day outflows, the U.S. Bitcoin ETF as a whole still recorded a net inflow of about $908 million, reflecting investors' continued confidence in Bitcoin. At the same time, the active layout of the business community is also continuing. MicroStrategy plans to expand its Bitcoin holdings through a $2 billion stock issuance, and JAN3, a technology company backed by Fulgur Ventures and Tether, has also received $5 million in financing to improve the usability and scalability of Bitcoin.

Analysts are optimistic about Bitcoin in 2025, predicting that the price may break through the $100,000 resistance level, with a target price of $125,000. The latest market shows that Bitcoin has rebounded from a low of $92,000 to $98,950, showing strong market resilience. However, investors still need to be wary of risks, and recent cases in South Africa involving Bitcoin-funded terrorist activities remind us to pay attention to compliance issues.

2. Key data (as of 09:56 HKT on January 6)

• S&P 500: 5,942.47 (+1.03% year-to-date)

• Nasdaq: 19,621.68 points (+1.61% year-to-date)

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.628% (+5.20 basis points this year)

• US dollar index: 108.91 (+0.40% year-to-date)

• Bitcoin: $98,653 (+5.61% YTD), with daily spot volume of $17.01 billion

• Ethereum: $3,641.46 (+8.87% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $12.75 billion

3. ETF flows (January 3 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: +$908.1 million

• Ethereum ETF: +$58.79 million

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

ISM Manufacturing PMI (January 3, 11:00 p.m.)

• Actual: 49.3 / Previous: 48.4 / Expected: 48.4

FOMC meeting minutes (January 9, 03:00 am)

Non-farm payrolls data (January 10, 21:30)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 227,000 / Expected: 150,000

Unemployment rate (January 10, 21:30)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 4.2% / Expected: 4.2%

5. Hot News

This week's preview | Sonic SVM, Xterio, and Seraph will launch TGE; Aptos (APT) unlocks tokens worth nearly $110 million

Macro outlook this week: The Fed is expected to be more cautious, and non-farm payrolls may add fuel to the dollar

OpenAI announces new products for 2025, including intelligent agents and AGI

USD0 surpasses FDUSD in market value, becoming the fifth largest stablecoin

Vitalik proposes hardware-implemented global “soft pause button” to replace dangerous AGI race

Aave governance proposal to link Ethena’s USDe to USDT sparks community concerns

Vitalik: Many crypto technologies can be used in the subject area of d/acc

Artificial Superintelligence Alliance plans to burn 5 million FET tokens on January 10

Caixin: Bitcoin, FAAMNG and Cocoa are the top performers in the global market in 2024

Data: APT, MOVE, KAS and other tokens will be unlocked in large amounts next week, with APT unlocking about $110 million

GSR Markets has deposited 6 million FLOCK tokens into CEX

JPMorgan Chase: A record $78 billion is expected to enter the crypto market in 2024, 28% of which will come from MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases

Hong Kong media: Hong Kong local banks have not yet recognized Bitcoin, employers using Bitcoin to pay wages may violate the Employment Ordinance

ICBC International Chief Economist: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 50-75 basis points in 2025

WIntermute and Amber Group may be market makers for VIRTUAL

Base is considering launching tokenized COIN shares, but is currently in the exploratory stage

The U.S. FDIC does not encourage member banks to use public blockchains such as Ethereum

MicroStrategy plans to issue up to $2 billion in preferred stock to increase its Bitcoin holdings

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