Can 16% Rally Last After $509 Top?

SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) – the largest gold-backed ETF – has surged alongside gold’s spectacular rally in January 2026. 

Gold prices breached the $5,000/oz milestone for the first time ever and continued to all-time highs (spot gold peaked around $5,602 on Jan. 29) amid a frenzy of safe-haven buying. 

GLD mirrored that move, spiking to an intraday high near $509.70 on Jan. 29 before a sharp pullback; it closed around $496 that day. Over the past two weeks, GLD has climbed over 16%, reflecting gold’s ~18% year-to-date surge driven by a confluence of bullish factors.

Several macro catalysts underpinned gold’s rise. Persistent economic and geopolitical uncertainties – including renewed trade tensions (e.g. new U.S. tariffs on South Korean imports) and a looming U.S. government shutdown deadline – have fueled demand for gold’s safe-haven appeal. 

At the same time, expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will ease policy later in 2026 (after holding rates steady around 3.5–3.75% at the January meeting) have bolstered the outlook for non-yielding assets like gold. 

Indeed, the Fed kept rates unchanged in late January, but a somewhat hawkish tone in its guidance – along with the confirmation that a noted inflation hawk (former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh) has been nominated as the next Fed Chair – sparked some profit-taking in gold.

Additionally, the U.S. dollar’s weakness (hitting multi-year lows amid White House signals favoring a weaker USD to boost exports) has further enhanced gold’s appeal. On the demand side, central banks continue hefty gold purchases as part of a global “de-dollarization” trend, and major banks like Deutsche Bank and SocGen now project gold could reach $6,000/oz by year-end. 

Collectively, those factors created a “perfect storm” of bullish momentum for gold and GLD in January. However, the recent volatile session hinted at a possible short-term exhaustion: gold’s spike above $5,600 was followed by a swift ~12% intraday plunge back toward the $5,000 level, indicating that leveraged buyers rapidly unwound positions once the rally overstretched. 

This extreme volatility in gold corresponded with GLD whipping through a wide 8.8% intraday range (low ~$468.5, high ~$509.7) before settling below the $500 mark.

GLD Technical Analysis: Trend, Indicators, and Key Levels

Despite the late-week reversal, GLD’s broader trend remains firmly bullish on the short-term and medium-term horizons. 

The strong trend momentum recently produced a technical breakout: GLD’s price broke above the upper bound of its rising price channel, a “blow-off” move that led to an accelerated climb.

GLD share price (Source: TradingView)

However, the abrupt reversal on Jan. 29–30 has likely formed a bearish candlestick pattern on the daily chart. 

Technical oscillators confirm that GLD/gold reached overheated levels and is now working off those conditions. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) for GLD spiked to ~95 by the end of this week – an “extremely overbought” reading well above the typical 70 threshold. 

Such a high RSI indicates that the price had run up very far, very fast. Historically, RSI levels in the 80s and 90s often precede at least a short-term pullback or consolidation, as upside momentum becomes unsustainable. 

On shorter time frames, momentum flipped down into oversold territory after Friday’s drop – the 1-hour RSI for gold dipped under 30 during the height of the sell-off, indicating a short-term washout. 

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is still positive for GLD on a daily basis: prior to the pullback, MACD lines were widely spread in bullish territory (e.g. MACD line ~16.6 vs. signal ~13.3 on Jan 27) with a healthy positive histogram. 

That reflects strong upward momentum in recent weeks. Going forward, however, we may see the MACD histogram start to shrink or the lines converge if price growth slows – a sign that the explosive momentum is moderating. 

For now, no major bearish divergence has been observed in MACD, so the longer-term momentum trend remains upward.

After this week’s wild swings, GLD has defined some clear support and resistance levels in its chart. Key levels to watch in the coming days include:

• Resistance ~$500–510: The psychological $500 level is the first barrier for any recovery attempt, and just above that lies GLD’s all-time high region around $509 (the intraday peak from Jan. 29). This zone will likely act as near-term resistance, as traders who bought at those highs may look to exit on a retest. A decisive breakout above $510 would signal a resurgence of the uptrend and could open the door to fresh highs (the next projected upside target would correspond to gold ~$5,240 and above, which equates to roughly $525+ on GLD).

• Support ~$494: On the downside, $494 (approximately the late-week closing price) is a minor support level. This was the area of a brief consolidation after Thursday’s sell-off and also corresponds to a volume shelf – there is accumulated volume around $494 that could buoy the price. If GLD remains above this level, bulls may gain confidence that the pullback was shallow.

• Support ~$450: A more significant support sits around the mid-$450s. This level represents the prior trendline resistance (now turned support) that GLD broke out from during its final rally leg.

In summary, GLD’s chart still skews bullish overall – it holds above former resistance and key averages – but the euphoria of the recent rally has been tempered by a needed correction.