Why Is Bitcoin Price Not Moving? Raoul Pal Explains ‘Largest Liquidation Event in History’

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Real Vision founder Raoul Pal said the crypto market’s weakness isn’t a sign the bull run is over. It just hasn’t started yet. The macro investor gave a specific timeline: crypto prices should start moving by end of February 2026.

But first, he explained what’s been holding the market back in a recent video on Savvy Finance.

What Really Happened on October 10th

Pal called the October 10th crash the largest crypto liquidation event in history. It started on Binance and spread across Asian exchanges.

Market maker APIs broke during the sell-off. Automated liquidations kept firing with no buyers on the other side. Pal believes exchanges absorbed billions in positions to stop a full collapse. They’re now slowly selling that inventory, which explains the constant downward pressure.

Also Read: Was Binance Behind the $19B October Crypto Crash or the Target of It?

Gold Is Telling the Story

Pal pointed out that gold reacts to financial conditions immediately. Crypto takes about 180 days to catch up.

Right now, gold is at all-time highs. So are silver, copper, and the S&P 500. The US dollar has dropped around 13% in the past year.

Crypto was the worst-performing major asset class during all of this. Pal said the gap isn’t about macro weakness, but about the October damage that still hasn’t healed.

Elections Will Force Action

Midterm elections hit in November 2026. The administration needs the economy to feel stronger before voters head to the polls.

Pal expects aggressive moves: tax breaks, fiscal stimulus, and new rules letting banks use more leverage. On the regulatory side, the Stability Act is moving fast, and a crypto market structure bill is working through the Senate.

What Could Go Wrong

Pal didn’t promise anything. Another government shutdown or tariff issues could delay things.