Worldcoin Price Analysis Points to a Critical 25% Breakout

Worldcoin price has quietly staged one of the strongest rebounds among large-cap altcoins. Since January 25, WLD is up nearly 50%, with the past 24 hours adding around 13% as traders possibly reacted to reports linking OpenAI to a new social platform focused on proof of personhood.

But the chart shows this rally did not start with the news. The OpenAI angle added momentum. The technical trigger came first.

Bullish Divergence Sparked Worldcoin’s Rally Before the News

Worldcoin’s rebound began forming well before headlines appeared.

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Between December 18 and January 25, the WLD price made a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made a higher low. RSI measures momentum. When price weakens, but momentum improves, it signals that selling pressure is fading. This setup is called bullish divergence and often appears near trend reversals.

That signal already played out. Since the January 25 low, the Worldcoin price has climbed close to 50%, outperforming most major altcoins over the same period.

This was not the first time the pattern worked. A similar divergence between December 18 and December 31 led to a 41% rally. The current move followed the same structure, suggesting the market was already shifting before any OpenAI narrative entered the picture.

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The news acted as an accelerant, not the ignition. However, the price move missed a key point that could shape the narrative moving forward.

While the 50% rally claimed key Exponential Moving Average (EMA) lines, 20-day and 50-day EMAs, it fell short of the 100-day EMA. An exponential moving average (EMA) is a trend indicator that gives more weight to recent prices. When price trades above key EMAs, it suggests buyers are regaining control.

The last time this EMA was cleanly reclaimed in early September 2025, the price surged 115%. This line would be a key resistance level going ahead.

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OpenAI’s Social Platform Narrative Added Momentum, Not the Base

Reports suggesting OpenAI may be exploring a social platform built around proof of personhood pushed Worldcoin into the spotlight. The narrative fits cleanly. Worldcoin’s identity system is designed to verify humans without revealing personal data.

Price reacted fast. WLD surged sharply intraday but printed a long upper wick on the daily candle. That wick is the key. It shows sellers stepped in as the price pushed higher, preventing an immediate continuation.

On-chain data explains why.

Exchange inflows jumped sharply during the surge. Inflows rose from roughly 0.83 million WLD to a peak near 10.7 million WLD in a short window. At a current price near $0.53, that represents over $5.6 million worth of tokens moving toward exchanges, possibly by underwater traders. That supply helped cap the rally.

Since then, inflows have cooled back toward 3.4 million WLD, suggesting selling pressure has eased. But reduced selling alone does not guarantee follow-through. Buyers still need to step in.

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Bigger Whales Positioned Early, Smaller Ones Followed Later

Whale behavior shows a clear split in timing.

Wallets holding 10 million to 100 million WLD began accumulating around January 15, well before the OpenAI reports. Their combined holdings rose from roughly 1.67 billion to 1.70 billion WLD, an increase of about 30 million tokens, worth roughly $15.9 million.

Smaller whales, the 1 million to 10 million WLD cohort, acted later. Over the past 24 hours, their holdings increased by about 2.6 million WLD, worth roughly $1.4 million at current prices. Their buying coincided with the news-driven spike rather than the early technical signal.

This split matters. Larger whales positioned early on the structure. Smaller whales reacted to confirmation.

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Worldcoin Price Levels Decide If A Critical 25% Push Is Possible

Worldcoin is still trading inside a bearish falling channel that has guided the price lower since October. The recent surge briefly challenged the upper boundary but failed to hold above it.

Derivatives positioning remains relatively balanced. On Binance’s WLD perpetual pair, short leverage sits near $4.65 million, while long leverage is around $3.9 million. This slight short tilt reduces immediate long-squeeze risk and suggests traders remain cautious.

Key WLD price levels now define the setup.

On the upside, Worldcoin must reclaim $0.66 on a daily close, a 25% move from the current levels. That level aligns with the 100-day EMA, which rejected the price during the recent spike. A clean move above it opens upside toward $0.73, $0.84, and potentially $0.95 if momentum builds.

On the downside, losing $0.51 weakens the WLD price structure. Below $0.48, liquidation risk increases, with deeper downside toward $0.43 if sellers regain control.

Worldcoin’s rebound is real and technically grounded. But confirmation is still missing. The OpenAI narrative added fuel, not certainty. February will decide whether this becomes a full trend reversal or a strong rally that runs out of room on growing selling pressure.