XRP market structure echoes early 2022 as short-term buyers accumulate below cost bases

XRP’s on-chain market structure is beginning to resemble conditions last seen in early 2022, according to new data from Glassnode. Short-term investors are accumulating tokens below the cost basis of longer-term holders.

Glassnode’s Realized Price by Age metric shows that wallets active in the one-week to one-month window are now buying XRP at prices below the realized cost basis of the six-month to twelve-month cohort. 

This configuration historically reflects a period of distribution stress, where newer participants enter at lower prices while earlier buyers remain underwater.

In February 2022, a similar structure preceded a prolonged phase of consolidation and downside volatility, as holders who bought near local highs faced increasing psychological pressure to exit positions.

Short-term accumulation builds pressure on older XRP holders

The realized price bands highlight a growing divergence between short-term and mid-term holders. While newer participants appear willing to accumulate at current levels, the six- to twelve-month cohort continues to hold XRP at a higher average cost.

This dynamic can create persistent selling pressure over time. As prices struggle to regain prior cost bases, investors who bought during previous rallies may view rebounds as opportunities to reduce exposure, thereby limiting upside momentum.

Glassnode notes that when this structure persists, it often reflects a market caught between accumulation and distribution, rather than a clear trend reversal.

Supply-in-loss data confirms rising stress among holders

Additional on-chain data strengthens this interpretation. Glassnode’s Total Supply in Loss metric shows a steady increase in the amount of XRP held below cost basis, particularly following the recent pullback from late-2025 highs. 

As of this writing, the supply in loss now stands around 26 billion.

Historically, rising supply in loss tends to coincide with weaker price performance, as confidence erodes among holders sitting on unrealized losses. 

At the same time, supply in profit has been declining, suggesting fewer tokens are held at comfortable margins. As of this writing, it stands at around 40 billion.

This shift mirrors conditions observed during previous corrective phases, in which recovery required either a prolonged consolidation period or a decisive surge in new demand.

XRP price action remains fragile despite recent bounce

On the 12-hour price chart, XRP recently rebounded toward the $2.00–$2.10 zone after dipping below key short-term support levels. However, directional momentum remains mixed.

The Directional Movement Index [DMI] shows weakening trend strength, with no clear dominance from buyers or sellers. 

While short-term rallies have emerged, they have struggled to sustain follow-through, reinforcing the idea that the market remains range-bound.

XRP also continues to trade well below its late-2024 and mid-2025 highs, keeping longer-term holders under pressure as price attempts to stabilize.

Market structure points to consolidation

The realized price divergence, rising supply in loss, and muted trend strength suggest XRP is entering a structural consolidation phase, rather than a decisive trend reversal.

While short-term accumulation may support price in the near term, sustained upside would likely require XRP to reclaim older realized cost bases and reduce the proportion of supply held at a loss.

Until then, the current setup closely resembles early 2022 conditions, when recovery proved slow and uneven despite intermittent rallies.

Final Thoughts

• XRP’s on-chain structure signals growing tension between newer buyers and longer-term holders, echoing patterns seen ahead of extended consolidation phases in past cycles.
• Unless price strength is sufficient to relieve pressure on older cohorts, the market may remain vulnerable to volatility and capped upside in the near term.