Daily Market Update: Stock and Crypto Markets Await Supreme Court Decision on Tariffs

TLDR

• Bitcoin holds near $95,000 after volatile rally with traders expecting test of $100,000 but not sustained breakout
• Prediction markets show 54% probability Bitcoin reaches $100,000 in January while downside expectations to $85,000 dropped to 15%
• Market makers attribute rally to short squeeze and over $800 million in ETF inflows, highest in three months
• Ether maintains strength near $3,300 supported by yield demand as funding rates stay steady
• US Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariff authority awaited while US reaches trade deal with Taiwan for semiconductor reshoring

Bitcoin held steady near $95,000 in early Asian trading hours following a volatile rally earlier this week. Traders are watching closely as the cryptocurrency approaches a potential test of the $100,000 level.

Market data from prediction platform Polymarket shows a 54% probability that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in January. This makes it the most likely outcome among traders betting on the cryptocurrency’s near-term price movement.

However, expectations drop sharply for prices beyond that threshold. Only 22% of traders expect Bitcoin to reach $105,000, while just 8% anticipate a move to $110,000.

The recent price surge appears to have been driven by technical factors rather than fundamental shifts. Market maker Flowdesk described the move above $95,000 as a “violent short squeeze” in a recent analysis.

Call buyers entered the market as volatility increased and option skews turned more bullish. The rally received support from exchange-traded fund inflows totaling over $800 million, marking the highest level in three months.

Liquidity conditions also favored buyers. Order book data across major exchanges showed bid-side liquidity improved at the best price levels during the rally.

Trading desk Enflux characterized the price action as an order-flow event rather than a response to macroeconomic changes. The firm noted that tests of $97,000 represented reactive spikes without broader catalysts driving the movement.

Ether Holds Ground as Funding Rates Stay Contained

Ethereum demonstrated relative strength compared to Bitcoin, holding near $3,300. Yield-seeking demand has provided support for the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

Funding rates in perpetual futures markets remained steady throughout the rally. This suggests leverage levels are contained, with traders not overextending positions on either side of the market.

Downside expectations for Bitcoin have diminished over recent days. The probability of a drop to $85,000 has fallen to just 15% according to prediction market data.

Trump Tariff Case Awaits Supreme Court Decision

The US Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on trade partners. The case centers on Trump’s use of a 1977 law meant for national emergencies to impose duties.

The court heard oral arguments in early November. Both conservative and liberal justices questioned the method by which the president imposed the tariffs during those proceedings.

Companies including Costco have filed lawsuits against the US government seeking refunds on import duties. These cases depend on the Supreme Court ruling against the president’s tariff authority.

Trump has expressed concern about losing the case on multiple occasions. He stated on social media Monday that a ruling against the United States would leave the country in a difficult position.

The US announced a trade deal with Taiwan on Thursday. The agreement aims to drive reshoring of America’s semiconductor manufacturing sector back to US soil.

China reported a record trade surplus of $1.2 trillion in 2025 despite Trump’s existing tariffs. Beijing attributed growing global trade imbalances to US policies.

Gold and silver prices edged lower in early US trading as geopolitical concerns eased. Trump’s pledge not to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also reduced risk aversion among investors.

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