- The bull case
- The reality case
Bitcoin mining industry analysts have come up with rather diverging views regarding the future trajectory of the network’s hash rate.
Bob Burnett, the CEO of Barefoot Mining, believes that Bitcoin hashrate is not going to experience exponential growth.
“Hash rate increases over the foreseeable future are more likely to just follow Moore’s law,” he said.
The bull case
Dr. Jeff Ross, founder of Vailshire Capital Management, has predicted that Bitcoin hashrate could potentially skyrocket this year.
The reinstatement of 100% bonus depreciation in the updated 2026 U.S. tax code is viewed as the main catalyst. This provision makes it possible for miners to immediately write off the full cost of new infrastructure in the year of purchase rather than depreciating it over a decade.
“So if you are going to build, uh, you know, a data center or a manufacturing center and buy a bunch of equipment, or if you’re a Bitcoin miner and you’re going to buy a crazy amount of ASICs and plug them in, you’re going to wait until January of 2026 to do that. Why? Because then you can do a 100% depreciation right away, right off the bat in 2026,” he said.
This collapse in taxable income, Ross argues, will force miners to “over-invest” in hardware to shield their profits.
“There are some Bitcoin miners that I think will be paying close to zero taxes for 2026 and probably 2027, and probably roll forward all the way into 2028 because of this depreciation rule,” he said.
The reality case
However, Burnett clearly does not buy this excessive optimism. The analyst argues that electrons are actually the main bottleneck, and the capital is a rather secondary issue.
“There is not enough incremental energy available for hash rate to skyrocket,” Burnett noted in a recent analysis.
The backlog for grid interconnection in major mining hubs of the likes of Texas is now measured in years. Miners can buy all the ASICs they want with their tax savings. Without an energized transformer, however, those machines are just expensive paperweights.
Hence, Burnett predicts that the growth curve of Bitcoin’s hashrate will mirror Moore’s Law.
Source: https://u.today/bitcoin-hashrate-expected-to-follow-moores-law-by-top-industry-analyst
