2025 Ended in Red: Bitcoin ETFs Bled $348M on Final Trading Day

Bitcoin spot ETFs closed 2025’s final trading session with $348 million in net outflows across all 12 funds, while Bitcoin itself settled at $87,496, down 6% from its $93,381 year-end 2024 price.

The bearish year-end momentum extended across crypto investment products, with Ethereum ETFs recording $72.06 million in outflows and no inflows registered among the nine available funds.

However, Solana and XRP spot ETFs posted modest gains of $2.29 million and $5.58 million, respectively.

The dramatic close accompanied a $74.6 billion liquidity injection through the Federal Reserve’s Standing Repo Facility, the largest single-day usage since COVID-19, as banks borrowed against Treasuries and mortgage bonds to manage year-end funding pressures.

While analysts characterized this as typical seasonal balance sheet management rather than emergency quantitative easing, the Fed’s intervention indicated potential flexibility on monetary policy heading into 2026, reducing near-term tightening risks that could benefit risk assets.

Institutional Optimism Meets Market Caution

Charles Schwab strategist Michael Townsend attributed Bitcoin’s earlier surge past $90,000 to regulatory clarity following the U.S. elections, estimating that prior regulatory overhang suppressed Bitcoin by approximately 50% of its potential value.

“We had basically regulatory overhang, which I think was holding Bitcoin down significantly, probably to the tune of 50%, which is why we saw a big spike,” Townsend explained in a CNBC appearance, forecasting 2026 gains from quantitative easing and Fed bond purchases.

Townsend highlighted deteriorating Treasury demand alongside anticipated rate cuts as bullish catalysts.

“I think demand for government debt is going to fall significantly next year, along with lower rates. So all of this bodes well for higher vol assets, including the likes of Bitcoin,” he said.

Schwab’s own crypto trading platform launch faces regulatory delays that could extend into mid-2026, tempering the firm’s immediate execution of its bullish thesis.

Despite institutional optimism, ETF flows revealed persistent weakness, and Glassnode data showed that both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF 30-day simple moving averages remained negative throughout year-end, showing absent retail demand.

Technical indicators painted a similarly distressed picture, with Bitcoin returning to “Extreme Fear” territory on the Fear and Greed Index, as analyst Quinten noted the asset had reached oversold levels historically associated with subsequent price doublings within three months.

Divergent 2026 Outlooks Frame Range-Bound Expectations

CryptoQuant’s year-ahead analysis outlined three scenarios for 2026, assigning the highest probability to a “twisted range” between $80,000 and $140,000, driven by intermittent ETF flows and persistent macro uncertainty around the U.S. midterm elections.

Their medium-probability scenario envisions recession-driven deleveraging pushing Bitcoin toward $50,000, while a low-probability “risk-on” environment could extend prices to $120,000-$170,000 under favorable easing conditions and stabilized institutional inflows.

Speaking with Cryptonews, Unchained’s Timot Lamarre contextualized 2025’s underperformance in terms of shifts in capital allocation.

“Money seeking risk found its way into Bitcoin treasury companies or the AI industry, and money trying to avoid debasement continued piling into precious metals,” Lamarre said.

Lamarre warned that mounting U.S. debt dynamics create political constraints limiting aggressive policy action ahead of the midterm elections.

However, he projected that Bitcoin would be “a leading beneficiary of cheaper and more abundant dollars” once monetary loosening materializes.

Institutional adoption milestones throughout 2025 included Vanguard reversing its longstanding crypto prohibition to allow trading of Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana ETFs on its platform.

Last year, the CFTC also approved spot crypto ETFs on registered futures exchanges in early December.

Speaking with Cryptonews, early Bitcoin investor Michael Terpin also forecasted a prolonged bear market mirroring historical post-halving patterns from 2014, 2018, and 2022, predicting Bitcoin could bottom around $60,000 in early fall before recovering into 2028-2029.

“There is still a ~20 percent chance of an extended bull cycle with a new high before the final correction, but it’s less and less likely as each month passes,” Terpin noted, identifying year-end 2026 as an optimal accumulation period before potential supply shocks following the next halving event drive the subsequent cycle.