Escrow Unlock Looms As Descending Channel Keeps Sellers In Control

• XRP remains trapped in a descending channel, with trend resistance holding near $2.08.
  
• Price is stabilizing above $1.85, but repeated tests show buyers are defensive, not aggressive.
  
• A 1 billion XRP escrow unlock on January 1 adds short-term supply risk amid thin liquidity.
  

XRP price today trades near $1.87 after another subdued session, with price holding just above short-term support as broader momentum remains weak. The market sits at an inflection point, caught between a persistent downtrend on higher timeframes and a major supply event scheduled for early January.

Price Holds Range As Downtrend Persists

On the daily chart, XRP remains locked inside a descending channel that has guided price lower since the October peak. Each recovery attempt has failed below the upper boundary, reinforcing a pattern of lower highs. The Supertrend remains red near $2.08, signaling that trend control has not shifted back to buyers.

Price is currently stabilizing near the rising support trendline around $1.85 to $1.87. This area has acted as a short-term floor through late December, preventing a deeper breakdown. However, repeated tests without a strong rebound suggest buyers are defensive rather than aggressive.

As long as XRP remains below the descending resistance line and Supertrend level, the broader structure favors sellers.

Short-Term Momentum Shows Stabilization, Not Strength

Lower timeframes offer a more balanced picture. On the 1-hour chart, XRP has entered a tight consolidation range between $1.84 and $1.90. RSI sits near the upper 50s, reflecting stabilization after the earlier selloff but not a clear momentum shift. MACD remains slightly positive, though histogram strength is modest.

This behavior points to absorption rather than accumulation. Sellers are no longer pressing aggressively, but buyers are not yet willing to chase price higher. That balance often precedes a larger move, especially when a macro catalyst is approaching.

January Escrow Unlock Adds Supply Overhang

That catalyst arrives on January 1, when Ripple is scheduled to unlock 1 billion XRP from escrow. The event marks the first scheduled release of 2026 and immediately puts supply dynamics back in focus.

Historically, Ripple has not released the full unlocked amount into circulation. In recent months, between 60% and 80% of each unlock has been returned to escrow. During December 2025, roughly 70% of the unlocked XRP was re-locked, with only a smaller portion retained for potential distribution.

Even so, the nominal size of the unlock remains significant at current prices. Traders tend to react less to the headline number and more to on-chain behavior following the release. Large transfers to exchanges or unusual wallet movements often dictate short-term price reactions, even if the long-term impact proves limited.

With XRP already in a fragile technical position, the timing of the unlock increases sensitivity around support levels.

The upcoming escrow release also coincides with renewed attention on regulatory developments. The CLARITY Act, confirmed for January, introduces clearer rules around how banks and financial institutions can engage with digital assets, including XRP.

This backdrop creates a split narrative. On one side, regulatory clarity supports longer-term adoption and institutional use cases. On the other, near-term supply events can pressure price if liquidity conditions are thin.

Outlook. Will XRP Go Up?

XRP enters the final days of December compressed between technical resistance and a major supply event.

• Bullish case: Price holds above $1.85 and reclaims $2.00 with expanding volume. A close above $2.08 would break the descending structure and open room toward $2.40.
• Bearish case: A daily close below $1.85 confirms support failure ahead of the escrow unlock. That scenario exposes $1.77 first, with $1.60 in focus if selling pressure builds.