Matrixport: If Bitcoin continues its seasonal strength in July, the relatively conservative "summer adjustment" may face correction
PANews reported on July 4 that Matrixport said in its latest analysis that the price of Bitcoin has been trading sideways recently and is still in a narrow range of fluctuations. Although ETFs continue to have net inflows and corporate treasuries have steadily increased their holdings, the market is not short of funds, but the price has not yet seen a significant breakthrough. The changes that are really worth paying attention to are the evolution of Bitcoin's volatility structure: the actual volatility has dropped to a multi-year low, and the weekly implied volatility has only remained at around 30%. The continued decline in volatility, on the one hand, reflects that the market is operating more rationally, and on the other hand, it also lowers the entry threshold for institutional funds that have previously remained on the sidelines due to risk control requirements. As more medium- and long-term funds continue to enter the market, the upward momentum of the market is gradually increasing. The current "low-volatility" consolidation period may be coming to an end, and Bitcoin is trying to break through the key trend line resistance, which may open up space for a new round of rising prices.
Inflows into Bitcoin ETEs have shown unexpected resilience, with about $14 billion flowing into related products since April, about $4 billion more than the amount of funds that can be explained by spot prices. Wall Street's intention to continue the trend remains clear. Currently, more than $100 billion of crypto-related IPOs are lined up. Judging from past performance, July is usually a relatively strong month for Bitcoin: it has risen seven times in the past decade, with an average increase of 9.1%. Even in the years of decline, the decline is only in the single digits; in contrast, August and September are often weak overall due to the decline in market activity and the increase in macro uncertainty. If this rhythm continues, Bitcoin may complete the last round of upward movement in the next few weeks and then re-enter the consolidation phase.
The current Fed's attitude has turned moderate, and the overall US stock earnings report is positive. Combined with the recovery of market sentiment after the "July 4" holiday, the three together provide a period of external support for Bitcoin prices. However, if the overall net inflow fails to pick up significantly, especially the lack of drive from retail investors or new funds, this round of rebound is expected to be blocked around $116,000, and may extend to $120,000 in an optimistic scenario. This recovery in market sentiment is also reflected in the "Greed/Fear Index": its smoothed moving average has shown signs of bottoming out and is expected to rebound to the "Greed Zone"; this range usually corresponds to an increase in price upward momentum. Therefore, if Bitcoin continues its consistent seasonal strength in July, the relatively conservative "summer adjustment" may face correction.
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