SOLUSDT tries to stabilize after a controlled flush in the latest Solana crypto news

After a sharp rotation out of high-beta altcoins, the latest Solana crypto news finds SOL trading near key supports as broader market sentiment slides into Extreme Fear.

Daily Bias: Structurally Bearish, But Selling Pressure Is Easing

Solana is sitting in an awkward spot: spot price around $132.6, under all major daily moving averages, while crypto-wide sentiment has collapsed into Extreme Fear (16/100). Yet Bitcoin dominance is high and total market cap is flat, not in freefall. In other words, this is not a systemic panic. It is a rotation out of high-beta names like SOL after an overheated cycle.

On the daily chart, SOL is in a clear corrective phase, but the intraday structure is trying to carve out a base. The main battle right now is simple: does this pause become a dead-cat bounce in a downtrend, or the first higher low of a new leg up? With DeFi activity on Solana DEXs clearly cooling off and alt risk appetite low, the burden of proof is on the bulls.

The primary scenario on D1 is bearish. Price is below the 20, 50 and 200-day EMAs, the overall regime flag is tagged as bearish, and the broader market sits in risk-off mode for altcoins. However, momentum indicators no longer show a waterfall. They show a controlled downtrend that could transition into a range if buyers step in around current levels.

Daily EMAs (Trend & Structure)

• Price (close): $132.62
• EMA 20: $135.81
• EMA 50: $148.86
• EMA 200: $169.76

Price is below all three EMAs and they are stacked bearishly (20 < 50 < 200 in slope terms). This confirms a medium-term downtrend, not just a quick dip. The gap to the 200-day EMA is now significant, which often means we are closer to the middle or late stage of a correction than the start. The easy downside is probably behind us, but the trend is still down until SOL can reclaim at least the 20 and 50-day EMAs.

Daily RSI (Momentum & Exhaustion)

RSI 14 (D1): 43.9

RSI has backed off from overbought and now sits just below neutral. That tells us the selloff is moderate, not capitulatory. Bears are in control on higher timeframes, but there is no sign of extreme oversold fear on the D1 chart yet. That leaves room both for further grinding downside and for a squeeze higher. It is a middle-of-the-road reading in a downtrend, which usually translates into choppy, two-sided trading rather than a clean trend day after day.

Daily MACD (Trend Quality)

• MACD line: -4.03
• Signal line: -4.79
• Histogram: +0.76

MACD is still negative, so the broader trend remains bearish, but the MACD line has crossed above the signal line and the histogram has flipped slightly positive. That is what you typically see when a downtrend is losing momentum. Sellers still own the higher timeframe, but they are no longer pressing as aggressively. This is consistent with the idea of a potential base-building or sideways phase rather than an immediate fresh leg lower.

Daily Bollinger Bands (Volatility Envelope)

• Middle band: $135.43
• Upper band: $144.12
• Lower band: $126.74
• Price: $132.62

SOL is trading between the mid-band and the lower band, slightly closer to the lower edge but not hugging it. That fits a picture of a market that has already moved down the band and is now trying to stabilize. We are not in a volatility squeeze; the bands are reasonably wide, reflecting a decent, but not extreme, volatility phase. Often, this type of position inside the bands precedes either a range consolidation or a grind lower rather than a straight crash.

Daily ATR (Volatility & Risk)

ATR 14 (D1): $8.07

Average daily range around $8 means SOL is swinging roughly 6% per day around current prices. That is elevated compared with traditional markets, but normal for Solana. From a risk perspective, it means position sizing needs respect. A small move against you can still mean several dollars in either direction, easily shaking out overleveraged traders.

Daily Pivot Levels (Key Reference Prices)

• Pivot (PP): $131.72
• Resistance 1 (R1): $134.15
• Support 1 (S1): $130.19

Price is hovering just above the daily pivot at $131.72, trading near $132.6. That signals a market in short-term balance after the drop. Neither side is clearly in control intraday relative to yesterday’s range. Immediate tug-of-war is between $130–134. Lose $130 decisively and the market will start hunting liquidity closer to the lower Bollinger Band around $126–127. Reclaim and hold above $134 and you open up a move toward the mid-$130s to low-$140s.

Intraday Picture: Hourly Structure Is Trying to Turn Up

While the daily chart is still bearish, the hourly (H1) and 15-minute (M15) charts are neutral to slightly constructive. That is classic for a market attempting to bounce inside a broader downtrend. Lower timeframe traders are probing the long side, but the higher timeframe still says countertrend move until proven otherwise.

H1 EMAs

• Price (H1 close): $132.54
• EMA 20: $131.93
• EMA 50: $132.16
• EMA 200: $134.14

On the hourly, price is now above the 20 and 50 EMAs but still below the 200 EMA. That is the textbook look of a short-term bounce inside a bigger downtrend. Bulls are winning the local timeframe, but they have not yet flipped the broader structure. The 200 EMA around $134 on H1 is the first serious intraday trend barrier. Until SOL sits above that, rallies are suspect.

H1 RSI & MACD

• RSI 14 (H1): 56.8
• MACD line (H1): 0.27
• Signal (H1): 0.06
• Histogram (H1): 0.21

Hourly RSI just above 50 and a modestly positive MACD say short-term momentum has flipped in favor of the bulls, but without any blow-off. It is more of a controlled intraday recovery than a euphoric squeeze. This fits well with the D1 read. The downtrend is weakening enough to allow bounces, but it has not reversed.

H1 Bollinger Bands, ATR & Pivot

• BB mid (H1): $131.42
• BB upper: $133.60
• BB lower: $129.24
• ATR 14 (H1): $1.06
• Pivot (PP H1): $132.44 | R1: $133.15 | S1: $131.82

Price is trading slightly above the hourly pivot and mid-band, with an average hourly range near $1. That points to a mildly bullish, but not explosive, intraday tape. The key micro-range is roughly $131.8–133.2. As long as SOL stays above $131.8 on a closing basis, short-term dip buyers remain in control on H1. Lose that, and the bounce starts to look tired.

M15 Context (Execution Layer)

• Price (M15): $132.58
• EMA 20: $132.45
• EMA 50: $132.02
• EMA 200: $132.23
• RSI 14 (M15): 53.4
• MACD line: 0.17 | Signal: 0.19 | Hist: -0.02
• BB mid: $132.51 | Upper: $133.03 | Lower: $132.00
• ATR 14 (M15): $0.54
• Pivot (PP M15): $132.65 | R1: $132.96 | S1: $132.28

The 15-minute chart is purely neutral. Price is hugging the mid-Bollinger and short EMAs, with RSI near 50 and MACD flat. This is a consolidation after a small push up. For active traders, M15 will define entries and risk within a very tight band, but it does not change the bigger picture. Short-term buyers are probing, while the higher timeframe still leans bearish.

Fundamental & Flows Backdrop: Activity Cooling, Infrastructure Building

On-chain, Solana’s DeFi ecosystem is showing clear cooling in trading activity. Raydium, Orca, Meteora and SolFi all post double-digit fee declines over the last 30 days, many in the -40% to -70% range. That reflects a drop in speculative throughput on Solana after the heavy rotations and memecoin mania seen earlier in the cycle.

At the same time, Solana still commands about 2.36% of total crypto market cap, and remains a core alt in the top cohort. Broader sentiment is in Extreme Fear, but total market cap is essentially flat on the day and Bitcoin dominance is high (around 57%). This hints at a defensive stance across the market rather than outright risk collapse.

On the adoption front, recent headlines like Robinhood launching staking for Solana add a slow-burning positive structural story. There are easier on-ramps, more staking access and better yield UX. That does not override short-term price pressure, but it does mean the fundamental narrative is not broken. It is just digesting a hot run with lower risk appetite.

Scenarios for SOLUSDT

Bullish Scenario: From Countertrend Bounce to Trend Rebuild

For the bulls, the path is stepwise, not a straight vertical rescue.

What the bullish path looks like:

• Hold above $130–131 on the daily close. That keeps price near or above the daily pivot and away from the lower Bollinger Band, confirming buyers are defending this new base.
• Break and sustain above $134–135 (H1 200 EMA and D1 mid-BB or PP area). That would turn the current intraday bounce into something more structural and help drag the daily RSI back toward the 50–55 zone.
• If those levels are reclaimed, next upside magnets sit near the $144 region (daily upper Bollinger) and then the $150 area (close to the daily 50 EMA). In a sustained risk-on phase, SOL can revisit those in a relatively short period, given its ATR.

Key bullish confirmations:

• Daily close above $135 with MACD histogram continuing to rise and RSI pivoting back over 50.
• H1 structure holding above its 200 EMA, around $134, on any pullback. That would show that dips are being bought rather than sold.

What invalidates the bullish view:

• A daily close below $126–127, near the lower Bollinger Band, turning the current stabilization attempt into a continuation of the downtrend.
• RSI rolling over toward the mid-30s on D1 with MACD widening further negative. That would signal bears have regained momentum rather than distributing.

Bearish Scenario: Resumption of the Downtrend After a Relief Bounce

From the bear’s perspective, everything above is just a bounce inside a larger downtrend.

What the bearish path looks like:

• SOL fails to convincingly break above $134–135. H1 gets rejected at its 200 EMA, and price drifts back below the daily pivot at $131.7.
• Once $130 gives way on a closing basis, volatility is likely to pick up, and the market will probe into the $126–127 lower Bollinger Band region.
• If fear persists and crypto remains in a defensive stance, price could grind below the lower band for a while. That would take RSI down into oversold territory and potentially target prior structural supports lower down, not shown in the current dataset, but think in round numbers and previous swing lows.

Key bearish confirmations:

• H1 flipping back below its 20 and 50 EMAs and failing any retest of $132–133.
• Daily MACD turning back down, with the histogram shrinking or flipping negative again, while price trades near or under the lower Bollinger Band.

What invalidates the bearish view:

• A strong daily close above $144, at the upper Bollinger Band, with follow-through. That would show the downtrend has transitioned into a new impulsive leg higher.
• Daily EMAs beginning to flatten and then curl up, with price holding consistently above the 20-day EMA.

How to Read This Moment for Positioning

Solana sits at that uncomfortable point where the higher timeframe is still clearly bearish, but the immediate sell pressure has cooled. The hourly chart is trying to recover, the 15-minute is consolidating, and daily momentum shows a trend losing steam rather than accelerating. In the middle of this, traders scan Solana crypto news for confirmation of their bias, but the chart remains the primary signal.

In market logic terms:

• Trend vs mean reversion: Trend followers on D1 are still short-biased as long as SOL trades under the 20 and 50 EMAs. Mean-reversion traders see value in the $130–127 area as long as the market does not break down.
• Momentum vs structure: Intraday momentum leans modestly bullish, but the structural downtrend dominates. Until price reclaims $135 and then $144, any upside is technically a countertrend move.
• Risk appetite vs defense: Extreme Fear across the market and cooling Solana DeFi fees point to ongoing de-risking in the alt complex. Capital is more comfortable hiding in BTC and majors than chasing Solana beta right now.

That mix tends to produce two-sided volatility and fakeouts. Smaller timeframes can look very bullish or very bearish for a few hours, only to revert back toward the broader daily structure. Anyone trading this environment needs to be clear about:

• Timeframe: Are you trading the intraday bounce or the daily downtrend?
• Invalidation: At what exact price does your scenario stop making sense?
• Size: With ATR where it is, how much exposure can you really tolerate if price swings 5–8% against you inside a day?

Solana is not broken. It is in a cooling phase after an aggressive cycle, in a market that is currently punishing excess risk. The next few daily candles around the $130–135 band will tell us whether this is simply a pause before lower, or the start of a new base for the next leg higher.