Schrödinger’s Bitcoin Market: Is the Cycle Alive or Dead?

\ Many traders have noticed that earning in this cycle is harder than it was in 2021 and earlier. Parabolic rallies have been replaced by short impulses followed by long periods of consolidation. Investors are now chasing APRs and steady yields rather than dreaming of 100x gains, while an oversupply of tokens, projects, and airdrops dilutes opportunities. Even seasoned traders are starting to lose motivation.

Many attribute this shift to changes in Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle—the market’s once-reliable heartbeat. Back then, the rhythm was straightforward: halving events reduced supply, retail sentiment surged, and the market moved in predictable waves.

However, the landscape has changed. Analysts say that the old rhythm no longer dominates, and a combination of new forces is reshaping Bitcoin’s behavior.

So, what are these forces, and how are they transforming the market?

Global Liquidity Has Taken Over

Before 2022, Bitcoin largely moved according to its own internal dynamics: halvings, retail speculation, and cyclical patterns dictated price action. But now macroeconomic forces have become the dominant driver of the crypto market.

Since 2022, Bitcoin has increasingly behaved like a “liquidity barometer,” aligning more with global money flows than with the traditional 4‑year cycle. Growth tended to accelerate during periods of rising global liquidity, while corrections often followed interest‑rate hikes and liquidity withdrawals.

\

• Wintermute agrees with this:

\

• According to Michael Howell, statistical analysis over a decade of weekly data suggests that global liquidity explains about 41 % of Bitcoin’s price movements.

\

• Michael Saylor points out that the next halving will reduce Bitcoin supply by about $20M per day. But compared to the daily liquidity of roughly $50B, this impact is almost negligible.

\

• Arthur Hayes shares a similar view. In his 2025 essay, he claims the four‑year rhythm is “dead” and that what truly drives BTC now is liquidity, coming mostly from monetary policy in the U.S. and China.

Institutional Capital Has Rewritten the Rules

Institutional involvement has fundamentally changed the market’s behavior. Today, BTC-backed loans, derivatives, and institutional flows dominate the market.

In 2025, Bitcoin ETFs attracted massive institutional demand, with giants like BlackRock and Fidelity consistently absorbing sell-offs and helping stabilize the market.  What’s important here is that, unlike retail traders, institutions act according to strict investment policies rather than emotion.

As a result, Bitcoin has detached from the broader money supply and now behaves more like gold, positioning itself as a safe-haven asset. Price is now largely dictated by capital flows rather than sentiment. This reduces volatility and stretches cycles.

Alternative Perspective: The Cycle Isn’t Dead—It’s Evolving

Some analysts argue the cycle hasn’t disappeared; it’s merely evolving.

They point out that Bitcoin cycles were never only about halvings. At a deeper level, they have always been about structural clearing. A cycle is a reflexive system built on leverage, where risk quietly accumulates until it finally unwinds, just like we saw during the recent $19b flash crash.

From this perspective, the pattern has simply become more complex. The underlying dynamics of leverage building, sentiment peaking, and excess being cleared are still very much in play.

There’s also another camp thinking that the cycle was never about Bitcoin’s 4-year halving. It was a 4-year liquidity cycle driven by 4-year debt refinancing. But during the last round, debt wasn’t refinanced for 4 years; it was refinanced for 5. So the cycle has simply been stretched this time around.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin is no longer an isolated speculative playground. It is gradually integrating into the broader financial system. The market now reacts to flows, percentages, and structured yields rather than hype and extreme speculation.

Bitcoin’s old rhythm has changed. Halvings no longer dominate, retail sentiment is secondary, and macroeconomic, institutional, and regulatory factors now shape the market. The 4-year cycle hasn’t vanished; it has evolved.

Now, to navigate this environment successfully, traders and investors must track liquidity flows, monitor institutional activity, understand regulatory developments, and manage risk carefully.

\n

\