Why Uptober Is the Cryptosphere’s Favorite Calendar Event

October, the month when crypto assets have empirically risen more often than not, is when traders who are risk-on and exposed to the right asset classes are poised to reap bumper terms. Hence why it’s been given the name “Uptober.” But is Uptober a pre-programmed event that’s invariably destined to manifest – or is it an idea memed into reality by a million expectant crypto traders?

Unpacking Uptober

Crypto is awash with seasonal events that have become enshrined in its calendar, some occurring annually, others – such as the Bitcoin halving, or “Halvening” – taking place quadrennially. Given that October is guaranteed to occur every year, does this also mean that Uptober is also guaranteed?

Answering that question calls for examining the data – and also for enlisting the wisdom of the experts. The facts behind the Uptober meme are these: Bitcoin has closed positively in 10 out of the last 12 Octobers, with an average monthly gain of around 20%. At the time of writing (October 22), the price of BTC is up slightly for the month, meaning we’re odds-on to make it 11/13 Uptobers. You don’t need to be a statistician to appreciate that whatever the rationale, October is a good month to be holding BTC and other majors.

As for why this is a thing, DWF Labs Partner Lingling Jiang has a theory: “Uptober is as much about psychology as it is about price history. Traders expect October to be strong, so they take more risk. That creates a self-fulfilling effect. The risk is that if Uptober starts slowly, disappointment can create sharper downside moves as traders unwind positions. For retail, this means Uptober is not just a calendar effect, it is a reflection of sentiment. The implication is that psychology can amplify both directions. Uptober optimism can fuel rallies, but missed expectations can also accelerate corrections.”

In other words, Uptober is a real and measurable phenomenon that’s likely to play out provided the month starts strongly. So long as sufficient crypto traders drink the kool-aid by buying into the meme, it will come to pass. Due to the way market psychology works, you don’t even need to believe that Uptober is a naturally occurring phenomenon: you simply have to believe that a sufficient proportion of the market does hold this conviction to profit. But as a closer examination of the market’s performance for the month to date shows, not all assets are destined to rise: some have greater odds of making the grade and closing out Uptober with average gains of 20% or higher.

Identifying Uptober’s Biggest Winners

As of October 22, 2025, the Uptober thesis is still intact – albeit only just, with the gains it made in the first week of October having since been largely eroded. The total crypto market cap has passed $3.7 trillion, with Bitcoin smashing through previous records. BTC topped $126,000 early in the month, up from $114,000 at September’s close. Daily trading volume for BTC is averaging $143 billion, aided by institutional ETF inflows that are vacuuming up supply, absorbing dips, and fueling the rally.

Ethereum and altcoins are also riding the wave, with whales accumulating ETH and tokens like ASTER – though it’s actually down for the month, having made its impressive gains in September. The big winner outside of BTC has been BNB, which is now past $1,00, driven by memecoin trading on BNB Chain that’s seen it briefly overtake Solana in total DEX volume.

Other majors haven’t performed so well, with many top 10 crypto assets down slightly for the month including SOL and XRP, which has dropped by almost 20% this month. So yes, Uptober is real – this year at least – but it’s by no means a given that the majority of tokens will actually go up. Pick your coins carefully. On a brighter note, spot demand is currently outpacing leverage trading, signaling sustainable growth. This month looks like it’s got further yet to run.

Don’t Fade Uptober But Don’t FOMO Either

If there’s one takeaway from all this, it’s that you shouldn’t resort to FOMO by buying crypto assets just because of the month it happens to be or the recent performance of the token in question. Past performance, after all, is no indication of future, and just because a crypto has raced out the gates in October does not mean it’s destined to keep ripping till the month end. 

At the same time, it’s clear that October is a month when there’s money to be made by playing the markets, so don’t just sit on the sidelines while you try to figure out if Uptober is a meme or a money printer. A smarter strategy is to take a look at which crypto sectors – beyond majors – have been doing well lately and to identify if there are any lagging tokens within that category that might yet catch up.

CoinGecko’s category index, for instance, shows that some of the best performers so far this month include Chinese tokens, launchpad tokens, and AI tokens. This much holds true: whatever letter the month happens to start with, trade using the same tooling and analysis as you ordinarily would. Check Crypto Bubbles, Bull Run Index, Fear and Greed Index, onchain readers, and all the other resources at your disposal. Trade with conviction and trade without emotion. That’s how you maximize your prospects of turning a profit – month in, month out.