XRP price eyes drop to $1 as it loses a key support

XRP has slipped below a key short-term support near $1.10, with sellers regaining control as traders lock in profits after Ripple’s latest European regulatory win and macro risk sentiment weakens across global markets.

The token traded around $1.08 on Tuesday after falling from an intraday high near $1.18. The decline came shortly after Ripple secured a full Crypto-Asset Service Provider license from Luxembourg’s Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework. Instead of extending the rally, the announcement triggered a classic sell-the-news reaction as traders booked gains following the regulatory milestone.

Fresh geopolitical tensions added pressure across risk assets. Reports of a tanker attack in the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. airstrikes on Iran, and the removal of Iranian oil sales waivers pushed crude oil prices more than 2.5% higher.

The move lifted Treasury yields and weighed on equities, particularly technology stocks, dragging major cryptocurrencies lower alongside traditional markets.

At the same time, derivatives positioning amplified the decline. CoinGlass liquidation data shows dense leverage clusters above $1.10 and another major concentration near $1.14, while the latest three-day liquidation heatmap now reveals comparatively thinner liquidity below the market.

As long positions were forced out during Tuesday’s decline, XRP quickly slid toward the next support zone around $1.08, leaving the psychological $1.00 level as the next major downside magnet if sellers remain in control.

A separate on-chain development has highlighted continued institutional interest in the XRP Ledger despite the token’s weak price action. According to crypto commentator Whale Factor, tokenized real-world assets on the network have surpassed $4 billion after standing near $150 million a year ago.

“The crypto as a toy narrative is dead. Tokenized RWAs on the XRP Ledger just smashed through the $4 BILLION mark,” Whale Factor wrote on X.

The growth underscores expanding enterprise adoption of the network, although investors have largely treated it as a long-term fundamental story rather than a catalyst for immediate token demand.

Technical breakdown has exposed the $1 psychological support

The daily chart shows XRP trading inside a descending channel that has capped every recovery attempt since May. The latest rejection occurred after the token failed to hold above the channel’s upper boundary before falling back toward the lower half of the pattern.

Momentum indicators have also weakened. The daily Relative Strength Index has slipped to around 42 after failing to reclaim the neutral 50 level, while the MACD histogram has begun printing smaller positive bars as the MACD line curls toward a bearish crossover. Together, those indicators suggest buying momentum has faded after last week’s rebound.

The Fibonacci retracement drawn from the May high to the June low also places XRP below the 78.6% retracement level near $1.13. Immediate support sits around $1.01-$1.02 near the channel floor, with a decisive break opening the door to a test of the psychological $1.00 level. 

On the upside, bulls would first need to reclaim $1.13 before challenging resistance around $1.21, where the 61.8% Fibonacci level and previous supply zone converge.

The 4-hour chart presents a similar picture. Aroon Down has climbed to 100 while Aroon Up has retreated sharply, showing sellers currently dominate the short-term trend. Meanwhile, Chaikin Money Flow has remained only marginally above zero, suggesting capital inflows have weakened despite avoiding outright distribution.

Macro risks could extend losses while a recovery requires reclaiming $1.13

Muted institutional participation has added another headwind. Spot XRP ETF flows have remained largely flat over recent sessions, while uncertainty surrounding the timing of the U.S. CLARITY Act continues to delay a key regulatory catalyst that many investors view as important for broader institutional adoption.

Further weakness in global equity markets or another spike in energy prices could accelerate risk aversion and increase pressure on altcoins. A daily close below the $1.01-$1.02 support area would strengthen the bearish case for a move toward $1.00 and potentially below it.

The downside outlook would weaken if buyers reclaim the $1.13 resistance zone and push XRP back above the descending channel’s upper trendline. Such a move would force short sellers to reassess positions and could shift attention toward the $1.21 resistance area, where the next major supply cluster remains concentrated.