Here’re quarterly and monthly GDP, normalized to October 2025: Figure 1: Canadian real GDP (blue bars), monthly GDP (black line), both in logs 2025M10=0. SourceHere’re quarterly and monthly GDP, normalized to October 2025: Figure 1: Canadian real GDP (blue bars), monthly GDP (black line), both in logs 2025M10=0. Source
Canadian GDP, NFP Recovers
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Here’re quarterly and monthly GDP, normalized to October 2025:
Figure 1: Canadian real GDP (blue bars), monthly GDP (black line), both in logs 2025M10=0. Source: StatCan, and author’s calculations.
The two series diverge as the quarterly series are based on expenditure side tabulations, while monthly relies on production side data.
Figure 2: Monthly GDP (green), employment (blue), nonfarm payroll employment (red), employment +15yr (blue), all in logs 2025M10=0. Source: StatCan and author’s calculations.
Compare against the view in this post.
ScotiaBank‘s nowcast for Q2 is +2.3% q/q SAAR, while the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Business Data Lab nowcast is +5.04% (!), way above Bloomberg consensus.
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