Emaar’s unnamed $54bn mega-project tipped to be Dubai Estate

• Developer’s ‘most ambitious’ project
• Backing from Dubai Holding
• Target of 150,000 residents

Emaar’s imminent plans to launch a new “city within a city” are likely to be a revamp of an existing masterplan named Dubai Estate, realtors and industry sources have told AGBI.

The master developer has been working on the project in south-east Dubai since last year, now an AED200 billion ($54 billion) project with backing from Dubai Holding, financial records show.

Last month Emaar founder Mohamed Alabbar trailed an unnamed project, describing it as the developer’s “most ambitious” – a 4.5 million square metre gross floor area district that will include homes, offices, hotels, shops and parks.

Estate agents at Allsopp & Allsopp and Sotheby’s International who specialise in sales around Dubai Hills, also in south east of the city, told AGBI that this project will be Dubai Estate. This is one of only two land banks in Emaar’s holdings which have yet to launch sales. Emaar hoardings marked the area last month when AGBI visited.

Agents said they have not received information on pricing or timelines.

Ras Al Khor, Emaar’s other undeveloped plot, is too small to match this new project’s scope.

Combing through Emaar’s past financial results and investor presentations, Dubai Estate is mentioned numerous times – it has been through three design changes since September last year. The land is directly behind Dubai Hills Estate, investor presentations show, near Global Village, a theme park owned by Dubai Holding.

It was first unveiled as Emaar Hills, an “ultra-luxury enclave” centred on so-called Dubai Mansions, before being rebranded as Emaar Estate in January and subsequently emerging as Dubai Estate in the developer’s latest earnings presentation in March.

Emaar valued the Dubai Mansions component alone at AED100 billion ($27 billion), in its original press material.

The original Emaar Hills masterplan envisaged 40,000 luxury villas, where a five-bedroom property was the smallest unit on offer. Those homes appear to have been folded into a broader mixed-use development.

An identically named “villa enclave” of five- and six-bedroom homes was mentioned in last month’s teaser.

AGBI previously reported on how the Iran war has driven many UAE developers to favour building villas over apartments.

The new Emaar development is expected to accommodate around 150,000 residents and is roughly two-and-a-half times the size of Downtown Dubai, which spans about 1.8 million square metres.

Last month’s announcement also mentioned a “proposed metro link”. In the Dubai Rail Network Plan 2032 map, the upcoming gold line cuts through the land of Dubai Estate, with a station expected near Dubai Hills.

Further connecting this plot to the masterplan, the land bank of Dubai Estate, plus the remaining undeveloped gross floor area of Dubai Hills, equals 4.5 million square metres, the new project’s proposed size, according to Emaar Development’s investor presentation in May.

In the same presentation, Dubai Estate is listed as a part of the group’s Dubai Hills joint venture with Meraas, one of Dubai Holding’s development companies.

Dubai Holding, owned by the emirate’s ruler Sheikh Muhammed bin Rashed Al Maktoum, has owned large swathes of land behind Dubai Hills since November last year, according to data from the Dubai Development Authority.

In recent months, Dubai Holding and Emaar have forged increasingly close ties. In May, Dubai Holding became Emaar’s largest shareholder after increasing its stake to almost 30 percent.

AGBI has contacted both companies for comment.

• The bubbles of Dubai real estate and where they are
• A Dubai property launch party in the shadow of war
• Dubai mortgage value rises despite property slowdown

The launch comes as Dubai’s property market shows signs of slowing after years of rapid growth. Property transactions fell 45 percent year on year in May while the value of deals declined 56 percent, according to Dubai Land Department data collated by DXB Interact.

The uncertain backdrop has already prompted caution from developers. Last month Alabbar said Emaar would wait for three to four months before reassessing pricing for the long-delayed Dubai Creek Tower project.

Alabbar told Arabic-language newspaper Emarat Al Youm that port closures linked to the Iran conflict had increased the cost of construction materials and complicated project pricing. Dubai Creek Tower is intended as a successor to the Burj Khalifa.

Despite the softer market, Emaar’s sales backlog – revenue yet to be recognised from previously sold properties – stood at AED163 billion ($44.4 billion) at the end of March, up 29 percent from a year earlier.

Shares in the developer traded at AED12.12 on the Dubai Financial Market on Thursday, down 13.7 percent in the year-to-date.