Down 72% in 5 Years, Is Under Armour Stock Finally Turning the Corner?

Key Takeaways:

• Turnaround in Progress: Under Armour cut SKUs by 25% over two years and expects North America revenue to stabilize in fiscal 2027.
• Price Projection: Based on current assumptions, UAA stock could reach $11.18 by March 2029.
• Potential Gains: That target implies a total return of 84.5% from the current price of $6.06.
• Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 24.6% annualized growth over the next 2.8 years.

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Under Armour (UAA) is a retail stock that has grossly underperformed the broader markets in recent years.

Revenue shrank 3.8% last year and 3.1% annually over the past five years. The stock has lost 72% of its value over five years.

At $6.06, it trades near multi-year lows. But fiscal 2026 may mark the bottom.

Revenue for the full year came in at $5 billion, down 4%, with North America declining 8% while EMEA grew 9%. Adjusted operating income was $107 million.

Gross margins took a hit from tariffs and promotions, falling 220 basis points to 45.7%.

The reset is painful, but it’s deliberate. CEO Kevin Plank is leading a structured turnaround focused on fewer products, better margins, and a cleaner brand story.

The early signs — tighter inventory, improved wholesale partner engagement, and a stronger order book for fall 2026 — suggest the foundation is slowly being rebuilt.

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What the Model Says for Under Armour Stock

We analyzed Under Armour through the lens of a brand that has executed a painful reset and is now approaching an inflection point.

The bull case starts with product. New CFO Reza Taleghani put it plainly on the earnings call: the product is genuinely good. The problem has been marketing.

• Under Armour has a nearly $500 million marketing budget, and management believes it hasn’t been deployed efficiently.
• That’s now changing, with a shift toward brand-led storytelling, fewer but louder activations, and tighter alignment between product launches and marketing spend.
• On the product side, 25% SKU reductions over two years have simplified the assortment and reduced supply chain complexity.
• New innovations like the Bouncy Tee — a $65 performance cotton T-shirt launching through Dick’s and DTC — signal a push into elevated everyday essentials.
• The company’s footwear credibility is also growing.
• Sharon Lokedi’s back-to-back Boston Marathon wins in Under Armour shoes gave the brand its clearest performance proof point in years.
• Internationally, EMEA grew 9% in fiscal 2026 and is expected to keep growing.
• APAC, after being deeply promotional, is showing signs of stabilization.
• North America — 60% of the business — is the key variable.
• Management expects a low-single-digit decline there in fiscal 2027, improving through the year with Q1 as the trough.

Using a forecast of 2.2% annual revenue growth and 3.9% operating margins, with an exit P/E of 37.1x, our model projects UAA reaching $11.18 by March 2029. That’s an 84.5% total return, or 24.6% annualized.

The 37.1x P/E sits below UAA’s current one-year average of 52.9x. The low earnings base means even modest profitability improvements drive large percentage EPS gains, which explains the high multiple despite thin margins.

Our Valuation Assumptions

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Our Valuation Assumptions

TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.

Here’s what we used for UAA stock:

1. Revenue Growth: 2.2%

UAA revenues have declined for three consecutive years. The 2.2% growth assumption reflects a gradual return to stability, not a sharp rebound.

Management guided fiscal 2027 revenue to be down slightly, with the underlying business roughly flat once the Curry brand exit is excluded.

Growth in EMEA and APAC is expected to partially offset continued North America weakness.

2. Operating margins: 3.9%

Trailing EBIT margins are just 2.2%. The model assumes modest improvement to 3.9%, driven by gross margin expansion from reduced promotions, better channel mix, and pricing actions tied to product premiumization.

Management guided 220 to 270 basis points of gross margin expansion for fiscal 2027, even excluding tariff-related benefits.

3. Exit P/E Multiple: 37.1x

The current NTM P/E is 55.9x — elevated due to earnings compression.

Our model assumes a 37.1x compression as profits normalize. This is still above the five-year average of 29.7x, reflecting the expectation that margins will remain below historical peaks through 2029.

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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?

Here’s how UAA stock could perform under different scenarios by March 2031:

• Low Case: With revenue growing at 2.5% and net income margins of 2.6%, investors could see a total return of 142.4% (20.3% annually).
• Mid Case: At 2.8% revenue growth and 2.7% net income margins, the total return climbs to 189.9% (24.9% annually).
• High Case: If revenue grows at 3.1% and margins reach 2.8%, total returns could hit 236.3% (28.8% annually).

See what analysts think about UAA stock right now (Free with TIKR) >>>

The scenarios are tightly clustered because the real driver here isn’t revenue growth — it’s multiple expansion.

If Under Armour can demonstrate consistent profitability, even at modest margin levels, the P/E re-rating alone could deliver substantial returns from today’s depressed price.

How Much Upside Does Under Armour Stock Have From Here?

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All it takes is three simple inputs:

• Revenue Growth
• Operating Margins
• Exit P/E Multiple

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!