Up 21% in the Last 12 Months, Can Warby Parker Stock Keep Climbing in 2026?

Key Takeaways:

• AI Glasses Catalyst: Warby Parker is launching AI glasses later in 2026 in partnership with Google and Samsung, and current guidance does not yet include any revenue from the product.
• Price Projection: Based on current execution, WRBY stock could reach $53 by December 2028.
• Potential Gains: That target points to a 105% total return from the current price of $25.96.
• Annual Return: Investors could see roughly 33% growth each year over the next 2.5 years.

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Warby Parker (WRBY) delivered Q1 results ahead of guidance despite a difficult environment. Revenue reached $242 million, up 8.3% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $30 million, a 12.2% margin.

• Retail revenue grew 13.6% year-over-year, driven by 14 net new store openings.
• Eye exams grew 30% year-over-year as weather disruptions normalized.
• Active customers reached 2.7 million, up 4.8% on a trailing 12-month basis.
• Average revenue per customer rose 6.9%, driven by progressives and lens add-ons.
• In-network insurance penetration reached approximately 10%, up from 8% a year ago.

Despite the steady progress, WRBY trades around $26. Investors who believe the AI glasses launch is a genuine category-defining moment may find the stock significantly undervalued at current levels.

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What the Model Says for Warby Parker Stock

We looked at Warby Parker as a brand that built something genuinely rare: a vertically integrated eyewear company that competes on price, quality, and experience simultaneously. The core business is growing steadily. The bigger question is whether AI glasses change the trajectory entirely.

• The setup is interesting. Google and Samsung are co-development partners, and Google is contributing a $75 million reimbursement to support the launch infrastructure.
• Warby Parker’s existing retail footprint of nearly 270 stores creates a physical distribution advantage that most AI wearable competitors lack.
• The core business, meanwhile, has multiple levers pulling in the right direction.
• The Home Try-On headwind from sunsetting that program fades as the year progresses.
• Out-of-network insurance filing has been rolled out to all stores and is driving higher average order values.
• The new sport collection, priced at $295 for prescription, adds a higher-margin product tier.

Using 21.4% annual revenue growth and 7.8% operating margins, our model projects the stock reaching $53 within 2.5 years.

This assumes a 50.6x price-to-earnings multiple, flat with the current forward P/E. The revenue assumption reflects the optionality of AI glasses adoption that isn’t yet reflected in guidance.

Our Valuation Assumptions

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Our Valuation Assumptions

TIKR’s Valuation Model lets you plug in your own assumptions for a company’s revenue growth, operating margins, and P/E multiple, and calculates the stock’s expected returns.

Here’s what we used for WRBY stock:

1. Revenue Growth: 21.4%

Full-year 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $959 to $976 million, about 10% to 12% growth, with no AI glasses revenue included.

The guided model assumes a meaningful acceleration as the AI glasses launch adds a new revenue stream in coming years.

Underlying trends are improving: e-commerce non-Home Try-On glasses grew year-over-year, and insurance expansion is still in early innings.

2. Operating margins: 7.8%

EBIT margins were 4.7% over the trailing year, improving from 3.4% over three years.

Full-year 2026 guidance targets 130 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion to 12.2%.

AI glasses carry their own economics not yet disclosed, but Google’s $75 million contribution reduces the upfront investment risk.

3. Exit P/E Multiple: 50.6x

WRBY trades near 50.6x forward earnings today. We hold the multiple flat.

Historical averages have been far higher, reflecting the market’s anticipation of growth acceleration. A successful AI glasses launch could drive meaningful re-rating.

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What Happens If Things Go Better or Worse?

Consumer retail companies face macro sensitivity and execution risk on new categories. Here’s how Warby Parker stock might perform under different scenarios through December 2030:

• Low Case: If revenue grows 23% a year and net margins settle near 6.7%, investors see a 170.8% total return (24.5% annually).
• Mid Case: With 25.5% growth and 7.2% margins, the model points to a 267.4% total return (33.2% annually).
• High Case: If AI glasses drive 28% growth and margins reach 7.7%, returns could hit 384.8% total (41.6% annually).

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The wide range reflects how binary the AI glasses launch is for this stock.

In the low case, the category takes longer to develop, active customer growth stays muted, and the multiple compresses.

In the high case, AI glasses become a breakout consumer product, Warby Parker’s retail footprint creates a distribution moat, and the company successfully builds the category just as it did with affordable prescription eyewear 16 years ago.

How Much Upside Does Warby Parker Stock Have From Here?

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• Revenue Growth
• Operating Margins
• Exit P/E Multiple

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!