Silver Price Setup: 107,000 Contracts Signal Fresh Capital Flows

Silver had a bumpy week. Prices swung up and down this week but have settled around $67 to $71 an ounce. Silver took a hit midweek, then recovered.

What pulled it lower? A wobbly U.S. dollar, expectations around Fed rate policy, and the overall mood in markets. The Fed chose to keep rates unchanged for now but left the door open for a hike later this year. That has kept silver, which does not pay interest, locked in a tight range.

Yet beneath the surface, something interesting is brewing, and the silver price may be about to get a new narrative.

An alert from analyst Bob Coleman has caught our attention. Total open interest in Comex silver contracts has increased over 10% in the last month, moving from 97,000 to 107,000 contracts. This is a key indicator of fresh capital flowing back into the market. 

After weeks of debate about the integrity of the Comex, this data provides a simple rebuttal: the silver price is seeing real money positioning for a move. Some users on X question the exchange’s nature, but the numbers show renewed institutional interest and capital flows that could provide the fuel for the next leg up.

News Pushing Silver Price Presently

The silver price is caught between two dominant forces. On one side, the signing of a US-Iran peace memorandum and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have eased energy-driven inflation fears, sending crude oil down nearly 5%. 

That news sent people running to safe assets, and silver popped 1.34% in a single day. Classic move for silver when the world gets shaky.

But the Fed is keeping a lid on things. The dollar index stayed strong near 99.40 after the central bank hinted at a possible rate hike in December. That pressure has kept silver from breaking past its next target at $70.56. When rates look like they will stay high for a while, a metal that pays no interest has a harder time climbing.

Providing a hard floor under the silver price is the deepening supply deficit. The Silver Institute confirms the market is entering its sixth consecutive year of a severe global deficit, tracking an approximate shortfall of 46.3 million troy ounces. 

This structural deficit is exacerbated by a supply-side shock: Peru’s energy crisis has forced twelve major mining facilities to implement staggered production schedules, causing an expected 5% to 8% drop in May/June silver output. This combination of dwindling above-ground stocks and immediate supply constraints is neutralizing downward macroeconomic pressure, creating a very tight fundamental setup for the silver price.

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Silver Chart Analysis: Range-Bound with a Bullish Bias

We pulled up the chart. Silver is stuck under a thick wall of resistance, well below its 100-day moving average. That keeps the short-term bias tilted down. The RSI is around 45, which tells you buyers do not have much power right now.

Silver is bouncing inside a range between $66.81 and $70.00. That is where the fight is happening. If the price breaks below $66.81, it could fall toward $63.15. But if that floor holds, expect more back-and-forth trading under that resistance zone.

Looking forward, silver needs to clear $70.00 to confirm any real recovery. If buyers punch through that level, the next wall is $71.45, which lines up with the Bollinger SMA.

The more distant challenge is the 100-day SMA near $77.62. Given the fresh capital flows from increasing open interest and the persistent silver  supply deficit, a break above $70.00 could trigger a swift short-covering rally, potentially testing the mid-$70s. A failure to hold above $66.81 could invite profit-taking and a test of lower support levels.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is silver going to reach $1000 an ounce

It’s highly unlikely that silver will reach $1,000 per ounce anytime soon. For it to reach that price, currency values would have to drop significantly, and there would have to be a steep increase in industrial demand. A more realistic price would be $100 per ounce within the next one to five years.6 days ago

Is it worth investing in silver now

Silver has both strong long‑term tailwinds (massive deficits, rising industrial use) and severe short‑term technical damage. The market is in a sixth straight year of supply deficit, and silver is a critical component for AI, solar, defense, and robotics. J.P. Morgan still expects silver to average $81/oz in 2026. However, the near‑term outlook is bearish: the price just closed below its 200‑day moving average for the first time in over a year, and analysts warn it could drift to $55‑60/oz in the coming weeks.