Data guru reveals path for Dems to retake the Senate — without Platner

Democrat Graham Platner secured the Maine Democratic nomination, and now he goes on to face Susan Collins (R) in the midterm elections.

Speaking after one of the 2026 primaries, data analyst Harry Enten explained that Maine isn't necessarily a must-win state if Democrats intend to take back the U.S. Senate. It would certainly help, but there are still four other seats, including Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown, currently running in a special election in Ohio and North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, currently running for Senate in that state. Right now, even the Texas Senate race looks bad for Republicans. Democrats in both Ohio and Texas are up by 3 points.

"We see James Talarico again, a small lead well within the margin of error. But in the average poll, he's up three points," explained Enten. "So, in two states we have polling out in the last few weeks, last few months, when you average it all together, where you actually have Democrats ahead again within the margin of error, but up by three points in two states that Donald Trump won by double digits just two years ago."

Enten looked at the Kalshi prediction markets to gauge how elections were going in other states, such as North Carolina and Alaska. In the case of former Gov. Roy Cooper, prediction markets indicate an 86 percent chance that he will win. In Alaska, Mary Peltola has a 62 percent chance of winning the state.

"When you combine it with one and two, and all of a sudden we ask the question, can Democrats get to a net gain of four Senate seats without Maine? Well, the answer is absolutely yes," said Enten.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee staff met with members on Capitol Hill Tuesday and revealed "tough polling numbers in some key races," wrote Semafor congressional reporter Burgess Everett in a post on X.

Officials described the data as "bleak" or "challenging," said Everett.

"There are seven GOP-held seats, so the map is actually really wide this year," Enten said. "It is widened out, which is not a big surprise when the president of the United States has an approval rating, if he's lucky, averaging about 40 percent. If you look at most of the polls, it's under 40 percent. Bottom line is the map is wide. Democrats have a path without Maine. Yes, Maine helps them, but they have a clear path without it."

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