The Senate is fundamentally a game of numbers and alliances. 

Currently, the upper chamber has a razor-thin majority of 13 and an 11-member minority. 

The majority’s slim advantage is increasingly under strain as two of its members are unable to participate in Senate sessions because of legal troubles.

Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa is nowhere to be seen, dodging an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court for alleged crimes against humanity tied to Rodrigo Duterte’s bloody drug war. If apprehended, he faces detention at the ICC facility in The Hague, the Netherlands. 

Meanwhile, Senator Jinggoy Estrada is currently detained for plunder and graft cases, effectively preventing him from attending the session in the plenary.

With Dela Rosa and Estrada effectively out of the Senate floor, the majority’s working advantage disappears, leaving the chamber evenly split at 11-11.

Senate Minority Leader Vicenter “Tito” Sotto III, a former Senate president and the chamber’s longest-serving senator, noted that an even split of this nature is unprecedented.

What does an equally divided plenary mean?

“An 11-11 Senate means undivided or non-controversial matters may be passed. No majority matters will pass unless concurred in by the minority,” Sotto told Rappler in a text message.

Traditionally, the majority bloc uses its numerical advantage to advance legislation, approve amendments, and determine the fate of resolutions. With both sides now evenly matched on the floor, that advantage is significantly weakened.

This also affects whether the Senate can even convene, as seen during the absence of majority senators at the session on Monday, June 1.

With only 11 minority senators present that day, there was no quorum. There was must be least 13 senators physically present for the Senate to conduct official business.

The public also caught a glimpse of this dynamic on May 19, when minority senators walked out of the session over the majority’s attempt to “railroad” the proposed online voting of senators, forcing adjournment.

Looming arrests threaten the majority

Dela Rosa and Estrada are not the only majority senators facing legal challenges.

Senators Chiz Escudero and Joel Villanueva are also facing plunder allegations tied to a massive flood control corruption controversy. The Office of the Ombudsman recently indicated that the case against Villanueva is “ripe” and may be filed soon. 

Senator Bong Go has been named as an indirect co-perpetrator in Duterte’s ICC case.

Senator Rodante Marcoleta is also facing a plunder complaint due to questions about his campaign donations.

In total, the majority risks losing up to six members who can actively attend sessions and cast votes. If all six face detention, the once-powerful majority would be decimated, reduced to a mere seven active voting members.

Can Senate minority take control of the floor?

Does this mean the minority can immediately oust Senate President Alan Peter Cayetano and install their own leader?

Not quite. The minority still needs at least 13 votes to implement a leadership change. 

Under Article VI, Section 16, Paragraph 1 of the 1987 Philippine Constitution, “the Senate shall elect its President…by a majority vote of all its respective members.”

Therefore, the 11-member minority bloc would still need to sway at least two more senators to their side to execute a coup.

Other majority members are grappling with legal issues of their own. The Villar siblings — senators Camille and Mark — are facing a market manipulation complaint, while Senator Robin Padilla is dealing with an obstruction of justice complaint for helping Dela Rosa evade arrest. 

If even one more senator from the majority bloc is jailed for a non-bailable offense, their active floor numbers will drop to 10. This would officially allow the 11-member minority to outnumber the majority during sessions.

Should this occur, Sotto said, “the minority will control the Senate.” 

By outnumbering the majority bloc on the floor, the minority senators could declare committee chairmanships vacant. 

Online session as the last resort

The majority bloc appeared to anticipate the possibility that some of its members could become unable to physically attend sessions.

On May 11, just hours after Cayetano was elected Senate president, Senator Rodante Marcoleta moved to amend Senate rules to allow lawmakers to attend sessions virtually for “justifiable reasons.”

Under existing rules, online participation is generally allowed only during force majeure events or a state of national emergency.

The proposal sparked a heated debate on May 19. Minority senators questioned both the timing of the amendment and the manner in which it was being pushed.

The dispute eventually led to a minority walkout and the adjournment of the session.

“Is the rule change being fast-tracked because they want Senator Bato to be able to vote? And there are reports that some majority senators may be arrested?” minority senators said in a joint statement then. At that time, Estrada had yet to be arrested.

The Senate is supposed to continue the deliberation of the proposal during its plenary session on Monday. The members of the majority, however, did not attend the session following Estrada’s arrest. 

Claiming that there’s a threat to the independence of the Senate, Cayetano challenged the members of the minority bloc, “to let the Senate go quiet, together and by choice, so the country is made to ask why a co-equal branch would fall silent rather than be made to serve.” 

Minority senators, on the other hand, criticized the majority bloc’s absence, describing it as a “boycott of duty.”

Politics, ultimately, is a numbers game. But in the Senate, numerical strength means little if senators cannot show up to vote.

With one senator detained, another in hiding, and several others facing investigations, the majority bloc’s strength in numbers appear to be losing its value. – Rappler.com