Polymarket Eyes Japan Expansion Despite Gambling Regulation Challenges

Polymarket is reportedly pursuing entry into Japan as trading volumes decline and regulatory scrutiny increases, with approval being targeted by 2030.

Polymarket, a global prediction market platform, is reportedly pursuing expansion into Japan amid increasing regulatory scrutiny of the sector worldwide.

The company has appointed Mike Eidlin, head of Japan at crypto firm Jupiter, to oversee its local expansion efforts and is preparing to lobby for approval of prediction markets in the country, Bloomberg reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Polymarket is aiming to secure government approval in Japan by 2030, with the market being viewed as a major untapped opportunity.

The plans emerge as prediction markets, including Polymarket and rival Kalshi, face increasing regulatory pressure worldwide, with countries such as India among the latest to take action against the platforms.

Japan’s Tough Gambling Regulations Create Major Barrier

Japan enforces strict laws on online gambling, with betting being permitted only on certain government-authorized activities such as horse racing and public lotteries.

Authorities have intensified scrutiny of online betting in recent years, with violations tied to online casino activity carrying fines of up to $3,400 and possible prison terms of up to three years for repeat offenses.

Polymarket reportedly said the company has observed “meaningful organic interest from users” in the country and across Asia, adding, “We’re always evaluating opportunities to expand access globally in compliant and locally appropriate ways.”

Polymarket’s Japan Community on X Surpasses 53,000 Followers

Despite only seeking regulatory approval to operate in the country, Polymarket already maintains a Japan-focused X account with more than 53,000 followers.

Polymarket lists Japan among 35 restricted jurisdictions, including the United States, under its country access policy. However, past reporting has indicated that the platform may still be accessed by users in restricted regions through tools such as VPNs.

Trading Volumes Decline Amid Rising Regulatory Pressure and Competition

Trading activity on Polymarket has come under pressure amid increasing regulatory scrutiny across several jurisdictions and rising competition from platforms such as Kalshi.

According to data from Token Terminal, monthly notional trading volume on Polymarket dropped nearly 15% in April, while an increase of around 13% was recorded by Kalshi.

Access to Polymarket is also being increasingly restricted worldwide, with the platform blocked in around 34 countries and placed under “close-only” restrictions in four others, according to data from Start Polymarket.

India is among the latest jurisdictions moving to limit access to prediction markets, with blocking orders reportedly being prepared by authorities against rival platform Kalshi following earlier action taken against Polymarket.