Trump is losing yet another war: top economist

With his war against Iran now in its third month, President Donald Trump is desperate for a way out, as the consequences have not only been military, economic, and political, but have ramped up a new conflict as a result of the oil crisis: the fight for green energy dominance. And according to economist Paul Krugman — who was given a Nobel prize specifically for his insights into international trade — not only is Trump currently losing that fight, but he’s positioning the United States for failure in the future.

“The global energy transition — the shift from fossil fuels to electrotech, which uses solar, wind and batteries to power an electrified economy — is accelerating,” writes Krugman. “It’s now clear that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz marks an inflection point: the global green energy curve, which was already on a rapidly rising trajectory, has suddenly become even steeper. ‘Investors,’ reports the Financial Times, 'are piling into clean energy funds.’”

He cites, for example, the fact that in April, of the 11,000 new cars purchased in Norway, only around 150 were powered by fossil fuels, while across mainland Europe, EV sales have risen by 51 percent over the past year. At the same time, the Trump administration has slashed funding for EV charging infrastructure, has ended EPA rules intended to facilitate the transition to EVs, and is working to end EV tax credits and other subsidies.

But the world, explains Krugman, is going hard the other direction as a growing number of nations see the writing on the wall.

“This acceleration isn’t just a consequence of soaring fossil fuel prices,” writes Krugman. “It is also the result of the worldwide realization that, with the end of Pax Americana, depending on imported hydrocarbons is a risk not worth taking. The United States cannot be relied on to keep sea lanes open when cheap drones can take out an oil tanker or a major pipeline. Even relying on oil and gas from America itself is dangerous, since one never knows when an erratic U.S. government – now under the control of a twice-elected malignant narcissist — will try to use energy as a tool of coercion.”

Krugman does see upsides to this situation.

“Despite the perversity of its causes, the current acceleration of electrotech is overwhelmingly positive for the world as a whole,” he notes. “It will slow climate change and reduce pollution. It will diminish the power of anti-democratic petrostates and limit the vulnerability of the world economy to disruptions at choke points like Hormuz. It will democratize access to cheap energy sources in places like Africa.”

What’s more, “There is another positive consequence of the clean energy boom: the diminishment of the carbon coalition — the interest groups and ideologues who hate renewable energy and want the world to keep burning fossil fuels. That coalition currently controls the Trump administration’s energy policy.”

There have been two main responses to this new status quo. On one hand, “now we have petrostate oligarchs making naked corruption great again by lining the pockets of the Trump family,” while the president’s officials have dismissed and reversed green energy initiatives, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright — who before entering the White House spent a lifetime in the fossil fuel industry — declaring them “the greatest malinvestment in history.” At the same time, “Trump’s own views about energy are defined by petulance and delusions. Wind power kills birds and drives whales crazy!”

But that’s not the case for most countries, notes Krugman, as “last year solar and wind power accounted for 99 percent of the growth in world electricity supply, while generation using fossil fuels declined.” For its part, China “added three times as much wind capacity as the rest of the world combined.”

As Krugman notes, however, “Trump and his minions are actively trying to stop the expansion of green energy even when it’s profitable.” For example, his administration has committed billions of dollars to halting wind projects.

“Fortunately, America is not the world,” concludes Krugman. “We account for less than 20 percent of world electricity generation. So Trump’s policies can’t stop the global energy transition. Indeed, as a result of the Iran debacle, Trump’s presidency has been a net positive for the global green energy revolution. Trump and the fossil-fuel cabal may be able to extract a few billion dollars in profits by keeping America stuck in a dirty-energy past. But in so doing they will also ensure that the United States is left behind, and that the future belongs to China.”

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