Oil crisis, inflation risk being eclipsed by politics as Congress resumes

By Pexcel John Bacon and Kaela Patricia B. Gabriel

LAWMAKERS returning to session on May 4 face mounting pressure to deliver policy responses to rising fuel costs and inflation, with analysts warning that political tensions and impeachment proceedings could crowd out urgent economic action.

Dennis C. Coronacion, who heads the Political Science Department of the University of Santo Tomas, said the issue is no longer just political will but whether the administration could sustain support in Congress.

“For the 20^th Congress, the most urgent economic and social issues center on inflation, unemployment, food security, energy affordability, criminality and anti-corruption reforms,” he said via Facebook Messenger.

Mr. Coronacion said controversies over the 2025 national budget and early positioning for the 2028 elections are straining alliances, making it harder for Malacañang to push its legislative agenda.

“It’s not really a question of political will but more of political capital,” he added, noting that even priority measures often stall without reliable backing in both chambers.

He said economic pressures tend to force lawmakers to shift toward short-term responses. “When the price of rice and fuel spikes, Malacañang and Congress leaders are forced to prioritize palliative or reactive bills to appease the angry public,” he said, citing possible amendments to the Rice Tariffication law and anti-agricultural sabotage measures.

Public anger over corruption issues, including controversies linked to flood control projects, has also pushed transparency bills higher on the agenda, he added.

Eric Daniel De Torres, a political science professor at the University of the East, said Congress needs a more sustained response to the oil shock, warning that its impact extends beyond energy.

“Congress must be proactive in addressing the oil crisis, which is already affecting economic and food security,” he said via Messenger, adding that policy responses should go beyond short-term fixes.

Mr. De Torres also said the Executive branch plays a key role, as governance concerns and international perceptions could influence policy outcomes. He added that political developments are slowing legislative work.

“For us to move forward, there should be less politics and more governance,” he said, pointing to impeachment proceedings as a distraction that could delay reforms.

The House Justice Committee last week found probable cause in the impeachment complaints against Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio, moving the case closer to a plenary vote. Analysts said the process could dominate attention, especially if elevated to a Senate trial.

“It seems that lawmakers are preoccupied with the impeachment issue,” Mr. De Torres said.

At the same time, economists and political analysts said Congress should prioritize measures to cushion the impact of the fuel shock linked to the Middle East war.

Arjan P. Aguirre, a political science assistant professor at the Ateneo de Manila University, said revisiting energy laws and offering tax relief could help ease living costs.

“Measures that reduce utility costs — particularly in energy and water — would translate into tangible relief for households,” he said via Messenger.

Several lawmakers have proposed changes to the Electric Power Industry Reform Act and the Downstream Oil Industry Deregulation Law, alongside tax measures aimed at easing the burden on consumers.

Hansley A. Juliano, a political science lecturer at Ateneo, said pushing economic relief and anti-corruption reforms could help the administration regain momentum.

“Policy wins will help neutralize the Duterte disinformation and hate propaganda, and to some extent, mollify or make more cooperative the liberal opposition,” he said in a Messenger chat.

Both analysts cited structural reforms, including an anti-dynasty law and stronger anti-corruption policies, as key to improving governance over the long term.

“The challenge for the Senate is to balance urgency with institution-building — responding to present pressures while correcting systemic weaknesses,” Mr. Aguirre said.

Senate President Vicente C. Sotto III said lawmakers would revisit priority measures once sessions resume, as Congress faces competing demands between immediate economic relief and longer-term reforms.