Chipotle (CMG) Stock Falls as Earnings Disappoint Investors – Here’s Why

TLDR

• CMG stock fell ~3.6% to $32.98 following Q1 earnings on April 29
• EPS came in at $0.24, meeting estimates, but down from $0.29 a year ago
• Revenue of $3.09B beat estimates slightly, up 7.4% year-over-year
• Same-store sales turned positive at +0.5% after a weak 2025
• Analyst consensus target sits at $46.23, with ratings ranging from $35 to $52

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) reported Q1 earnings on April 29, and the market wasn’t impressed. The stock dropped roughly 3.6% in the days following the print, settling around $32.97 — well below its 52-week high of $58.42.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., CMG

Revenue came in at $3.09B, slightly above the $3.07B analyst estimate and up 7.4% from the same quarter last year. EPS matched expectations at $0.24, though that’s down from $0.29 in Q1 2025.

One bright spot: same-store sales turned positive at +0.5%, a welcome sign after a rough stretch in 2025. Management pointed to strong performance from high-protein menu items and digital sales as key drivers.

That said, the mood on Wall Street remains mixed.

Analysts Split on the Stock

Guggenheim trimmed its price target to $35 and kept a “neutral” rating, flagging margin pressure from higher labor and operating costs. Wells Fargo cut its target from $50 to $45 but kept an “overweight” rating. Stephens bumped its target slightly to $39 with an “equal weight.”

On the more optimistic side, Citigroup raised its target to $46 and TD Cowen reiterated a “Buy.” Sanford C. Bernstein has a $50 target with an “outperform” rating.

Overall, 23 analysts rate CMG a Buy and 12 have it at Hold. The consensus price target is $46.23 — implying meaningful upside from current levels if you believe the recovery story.

Looking at the broader forecast, analysts expect full-year 2026 revenue of $13.0B, reflecting about 6.9% growth. EPS estimates for the year sit at $1.11, roughly flat versus the last 12 months.

Revenue growth is expected to slow to around 9.3% annually through end of 2026, compared to 12% over the past five years. That’s roughly in line with the broader restaurant industry’s projected 9.1% growth rate.

Options Market Flashing Caution

One number that stood out post-earnings: unusual put activity. Around 61,900 put contracts traded — about 39% above average daily put volume. That kind of flow typically signals elevated hedging or outright bearish bets.

With 91.3% of CMG owned by institutional investors, large moves in either direction can get amplified quickly.

Danske Bank A/S added to its position in Q4, picking up 61,230 additional shares, bringing its total to 711,117 shares valued at roughly $26.3M. A handful of smaller funds also initiated new positions in Q3.

CMG currently trades with a P/E of 30.25, a PEG ratio of 2.02, and a beta of 1.03. The 50-day moving average sits at $34.37 and the 200-day at $35.94 — the stock is trading below both.

The 52-week range is $29.75 to $58.42, meaning CMG is currently trading just above its yearly floor.

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