Bloomberg Analyst Says Prediction Market ETFs May Launch Soon

TLDR

• Roundhill set May 5 as the new effective date for six election-focused ETFs in a recent SEC filing.
• Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said the first prediction market ETFs could launch next week.
• The six funds track outcomes tied to the 2028 presidential and 2026 midterm elections.
• Each ETF aims to deliver gains if the selected political party wins the targeted race.
• The funds would face near-total losses if the selected party does not win.

Roundhill has set May 5 as the new effective date for six election-focused funds. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart said the products could launch next week. The filings signal that prediction market ETFs may soon enter the U.S. market.

Prediction market ETFs set for May 5 effective date

Roundhill filed a post-effective amendment under Rule 485(b) with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing assigns May 5 as the new effective date for six previously registered funds.

The lineup includes RPM Democratic President ETF and RPM Republican President ETF. It also lists RPM Democratic Senate ETF and RPM Republican Senate ETF. The filing also names RPM Democratic House ETF and RPM Republican House ETF.

Roundhill first outlined the funds in a February registration statement. The structure allows exposure to U.S. election event contracts. Each fund targets capital appreciation if the chosen party wins.

The funds would incur near-total losses if the targeted party loses. The President ETFs focus on the 2028 presidential election. The Senate and House ETFs target the November 2026 midterm elections.

Seyffart has tracked the filings and shared updates through Bloomberg channels. He said the filings suggest the products will move forward soon. He added that similar products could follow.

Rival issuers and market backdrop

GraniteShares and Bitwise submitted comparable filings in February. Seyffart expects those products to launch around the same timeframe. He has described the shift as the “financialization and ETF-ization of everything.”

Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas addressed Roundhill’s filing earlier this year. He said, “If this goes through, wow, opens up huge door to all kinds of stuff.” His comment reflected the potential scope of event-based funds.

The filings follow rising activity on prediction platforms Polymarket and Kalshi. In March, the two platforms reported a combined $24.3 billion in trading volume. Political events accounted for a large share of that activity.

Polymarket operates on the Polygon blockchain and uses USDC-based collateral. The platform also uses its own Polymarket USD token for settlement. Onchain transactions provide fast and low-cost execution.

Kalshi does not operate as a crypto-native platform. However, reports recently indicated that Kalshi plans to launch crypto perpetual futures trading. The company has not disclosed a specific launch date.

Seyffart said the ETF filings show expanding product development in the sector. He stated that it is unlikely to be the last filing of this type. The Roundhill funds now carry a May 5 effective date, according to the SEC filing.

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